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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/3/ayr/2021-09-18/790116
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/ayr-gold-cup/winner
I’ll not be betting him immediately, but I’ll definitely be sticking with Chiefofchiefs. Has ran well every race this season without winning, and he’s got to be due. I don’t think Spencer is the best fit for him, but he seems to have the gig, and I’d be hoping everything finally clicks.
Plenty of others catching the eye though, including…..
Fivethousandtoone
Gulliver
Mr Lupton
Snazzy Jazzy
Stone of Destiny
Total CommitmentOf that lot, Stone of Destiny and Snazzy Jazzy make plenty of appeal too, and should know more about Snazzy tomorrow.
Not for the first time though, I’m drawn to Chiefofchiefs.
Chiefofchiefs 16’s
Thought that was a really encouraging run by Snazzy Jazzy in The Symphony yesterday.
Step up in trip will suit here, being a former Silver Cup winnner, and there has to be a realistic chance of him finding the ground more to his liking here.
For all that Chiefofchiefs is the main hope here, I could see Snazzy Jazzy being the first bet, as he’s very appealing at 40’s.
Interested to see how Hayley Turner gets on with Chiefofchiefs today in The Hopeful Stakes, as Spencer hasn’t been that good a good fit for him.
I don’t think he’ll run at Ayr if he lands it, but I’ve bet him now for Ayr as well anyway.
Just love this race and this couple catch my eye
Commanche Falls 14/1 (boosted to 15s) Paddy Power
I’m very keen on him, I think he’s progressive and his form is top drawer. I sometimes
think you almost need a horse that gets 7f in the GC, they go at such a pace. I think
the race before the last told us all we need to know. He won at Hamilton, and that uphill
finish at Hamilton catches many a horse out, after a good duel with Music Society with Mr
Wagyu just over a length behind. That race works out really well with Music Society just
beaten shd in the Sky Dash next time out and Mr Wagyu winning the Stewards’ Cup Consolation
Race. Comannche Court went one better by taking the Stewards’ Cup proper. He’s up 4 pounds
for that, but at the rate he’s progressing I don’t that that’s going to stop him. He’s my
main bet in the race, I took the 14s (boosted 15s) at Paddy Power and I think that’s a great
bet. He likes to come through them and that’s tricky in the GC, but he has pace and he’s tough.
He runs in the same colours as Dakota Gold and is trained by (IMO) the best sprint trainer in
the business in Michael Dods.Pendleton (generally 25/1)
I’ve not bet him yet, but I’m keeping a keen eye on the market hoping that some brave bookie
might chance their arm at 33s. If the 25s start to disappear I’ll jump on. He didn’t run in
2020 but showed that the 18 months off hadn’t done him any harm when beaten nse by Fresh at
Ascot in May. That form worked out well when Fresh was beaten by just a nk next time out in
the Wokingham. I was on Pendleton next time out in his win at York over 5f later that month
where he came through in the last 100 yards and won comfortably. He was upped 6lb for that
and ran in the Wokingham where he finished well down the field. The trainer’s rep told the
Stewards that he “was unsuited by the soft, heavy in places ground on this occasion” I would
have asked questions too as he’s won a couple of times on soft and there didn’t seem a great
deal of endevour from Callum Rodriguez. Similarly last time out at York he was well down the
field with Rodriguez scaring a couple of flies with his whip. The upshot of those runs is that
he’s down 3lbs and just 3lbs higher than his cosy win at York in May. If this has been the plan
for a while he must have a shout.Good luck with your pair Bobby
Commanche Falls for me too 15-1 ew 5 places. Added Chiefofchiefs ew, 28-1 looks big on the Stewards Cup run.
Update: read a quote from Commanche’s trainer about the draw being important. Had forgotten about the draw, so will wait until the day, perhaps after the consolation race.
As an ayrshireboy I can confirm the draw def has a bias , esp when there is some juice in the ground , there,s been rain about today , more tomorrow then dry Thurs , more rain Fri and Sat , the course doesn’t take much rain ( more than there fair share of meeting get canx ) so I’d be wary of betting before the draw , as I’ve already said I really like Ostilio , it may well be the silver rather than the gold but he really caught the eye last time in the bullet
Cheers Graham, and good luck with your pair.
Pendleton certainly an interesting one. I’m hoping their Blackrod goes in one of the consolation races.
Shaping up to be a cracker this. No plans to add a third here, and happy with my pair at the moment.
Chiefofchiefs 16’s EW 5 places/25’s
Snazzy Jazzy 33’s EW 5 placesI’ve bet two in this, Gulliver at 16-1, and Mr Lupton at 33-1. I’ve only bet them to win just now, but I’ll definitely bet them ew at the weekend.
I’m shocking at this race – Camps Heath in 1985 was the last winner I was confident of – but I see Mr Lupton is a pound lower than when third last year and he ought to be thereabouts at a price.
These have been beating each other all through the summer, I’ve got most of the field within 7lbs and the list of those at the top separated by 3lbs and that’s on recent form:
113 Count D’Orsay
112 Summerghand
112 Gulliver
111 Commanche Falls
110 Motagally
110 Sunday Sovereign
110 Chiefofchiefs
110 Mr Wagyu
110 Volatile Analyst
110 Lexington DashTHe three-year-olds that interested me have all been consigned to the Silver Cup. I could make out some sort of case for most of the close rated but happy to go top three against the field as I can’t find a reason to reject them.
Count D’Orsay 28/1 looks very tasty given his Portland effort and just scrapes in at the bottom of the weights. Not tried much over six furlongs but dinished with a decent rattle at Doncaster.
Summerghand 14/1 is standing dish to be somewhere near in these contests and has put up soem decent efforts in Pattern company. Top weight but the apprentice takes off 5lbs and 16lbs covers the field with bottom weight 8-13.
I’ve always found Gulliver 14/1 a frustrating character to tie down, but he’s been close up on a number of occasions of late. Little bit of rain might help his cause, though his Irish effort on good was creditable, and some precipitation is forecast for tomorrow.67 OR Class 5 Thrilla In Manila 0.46 sec slow for 5f at Ayr today.
That’s fast ground IMO.
First six home in the 15-runner contest were drawn: 9-6-2-7-8-5.
Conclusion from this isolated bit of evidence?
Middle to low draws best in Gold, Silver and Bronze Cups?
Focus on those that need it on top?
Ian/Kris, good luck with Mr Lupton.
I really don’t want to bet a third here, but I’m itching to add him. Was really keen on him last year, and no surprise to see him bounce back here. He looks too big a price too, but trying to stick with just the two. Tempting
There’s a good article from Graham Cunningham on the Sporting Life about the Ayr Gold Cup and he makes a good point about the draw and how it depends on what the high drawn horses do. I’ll just put the summary of the bit about the draw here:
– Nothing drawn lower than 8 has won the Gold Cup since Fonthill Road saluted from 6 in 2006.
– But, much more importantly, a great deal seems to depend on whether the field splits into distinct far and near side groups.
– High numbers have a solid record when the field does split.
– But that advantage flips noticeably when those drawn high edge over to race in the centre.(full link is https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/the-cunningham-file-ayr-gold-cup-week-and-weaning-himself-away-from-twitter/194650 for those interested)
I think he could be onto something and the two higher drawn King Power runners both like to go forwards, they could tow the high draws along the rail rather than making a group in the middle. Bielsa’s actually drawn pretty much the same place he was last year when he ended up racing solo on the rail from a high draw and did much better than his finishing place would imply. He’s high on my shortlist but want to wait for the Bronze race today and the ground tomorrow and the market before firming up plans in the morning.
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