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I’m guessing Plum Pudding will make the pace here, but going up 2-3f in trip, you wonder whether they will try & set a modest pace to ensure he lasts home. I hope that doesn’t happen, & that Tranquil Tiger will make sure he doesn’t get an easy lead. Not sure I fancy either of those around Lingfield, PP because of course & trip, I could see a scenario where TT tries to make all, & he has the inherent class to last a long way, but my feeling is both will get mugged in the home straight.
Presvis is the class horse in the race, he’s a G1 horse in a Listed race with an 8lb penalty. If he’s fit & ready, I don’t think the extra weight will be an issue, & this race could set up really nicely for a class horse with a turn of foot. On the downside, he’s never raced on the AW, has been off for 6 months, & this is obviously a prep for some much bigger race.
On first glance, Suits Me looks totally out of form, but he’s returning to a track he acts well on & is not having to carry any penalties. He could run much better than his form figures suggest, although if it were a truly run, class race, I’m sure he’d come up short.
Beauchamp Xerxes seems to have be campaigned as though they think he’s a class horse. His recent form is solid without being brilliant, but I have a gut feeling that G.Butler may fancy BX on the AW this winter, & I think he’s a great judge of AW racing.
I’m not sure what to make of General Elliot, he has one or two bits of form which back up his rating of OR105, but he does seem a little inconsistent. He’s had one try on the AW at Kempton which wasn’t that successful, & on turf form he is held by BX & SM.
I’m hoping the race will be set up by Tranquil Tiger, making a really bold bid from a long way out, I’d like to see him hold on, but I think he may run out of steam in the straight. Then a horse from off the pace, maybe Presvis, Beauchamp Xerxes or even Suits Me getting up to win.
All things being equal, Presvis should win this, but you are having to take a couple of things on trust, & I guess he’ll be a short price. I’ll stick with the AW home team & support Beauchamp Xerxes and Suits Me, hoping that one of them runs into the places at least.
Anyboby else have any ideas ?
Presvis should dot up – he is a class apart – it will be a very poor effort in preparation or riding (or both) if he gets beat. I reckon he could have given Sea The Stars a race and what price would he have been to beat this lot. The absence shouldn’t be an excuse as trainers can get horses ready after two years off the track.
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