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Ascot Summer Mile 2018

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  • July 13, 2018 at 23:46 #1360214
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    The milers are a fairly uninspiring bunch this year.

    It’s very difficult to be confident on one for this, i thought Lord Glitters ran a cracker last time when i was on him, but at 4s now i am not sure i’d be a backer.

    I also backed Suedois that day and he wasn’t so good. Trainer has said a round mile will suit him better, i can see that, as he’s won over a mile at Leop which has a bend, and i presume his win and 4th at the breeders cup were miles with a bend (could be wrong but presume they were).

    Hopefully getting him some cover will allow him save some of his finishing kick for being delivered late, as i am not sure the race panned out last time to suit a horse that is really more of a 7 1/2 furlong horse. To be honest, perhaps Ascot over a mile won’t ever suit him..

    I’ll take a punt on him at 12s- isn’t my most confident selection ever…

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    July 14, 2018 at 00:07 #1360216
    Avatar photoKevMc
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    Aye I think he wants an easier mile on a round track mate, but will find out tomorrow. Leaving this one, hard to trust this lot to show their form.

    July 14, 2018 at 01:07 #1360220
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Beat The Bank, Lord Glitters and Century Dream all ran well in what was a poor quality Queen Anne, but it was still a Group 1 and they’ve all come down in grade. Beat The Bank finished behind the other two, but didn’t have as good a run through and the main reason for making him a main bet is that Andrew Balding is now in particularly good form. However, Lord Glitters only got beat half a length and is also a main bet. Close decision between the three, but Crystal Dream is the saver.
    To my way of thinking these three already have the best form and by far the most likely to show that form and/or progress, so imo are all under-estimated in the market. 7/2, 4/1 and 9/2 make it combined odds of 4/6, imo that should be around 1/2. Or how I’ve done – main bet a combined 11/8 with a 9/2 saver.
    French horse Trais Fluors probably their main danger, but not convinced he’s fully effective on this ground. I’d be interested in Eminent at a bigger price if it wasn’t for fellow pace setters Arod and Zhui Feng. I hear a change of tactics is a distinct possibility, but being behind horses probably doesn’t suit this long striding horse. Could put an in-running saver in, but only if able to dictate. Seven year old Suedois just hasn’t been at his best this season and probably needs a career best to prevail here anyway. Is age catching up with him? Ditto Arod, who doesn’t seem the force of old. Circus Couture was a 100/1 close 3rd in the Hunt Cup under 9-8. Can’t dismiss his chances; good performance for the handicap grade but overall seems inconsistent and needs to step up more than one grade here. Zhui Feng won a listed 4 runner event last time. This looks far more difficult to dictate.

    Value Is Everything
    July 14, 2018 at 06:50 #1360239
    Avatar photoTriptych
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    I’ll be watching from Newmarket but would be over the moon to see EMINENT return to form and win this.
    I want to see him up the front and make all, he’s a Frankel he can do it :heart: Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    July 14, 2018 at 09:26 #1360255
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Eminent’s chance has just got quite a bit better Jac, with Arod coming out. Now the only other likely to take him on up front is rank outsider Zhui Feng, so it’s possible could just out-class him.

    Value Is Everything
    July 14, 2018 at 10:02 #1360267
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Lord Glitters and Eminent (9/1) now my main bets, saver Beat The Bank, part saver Century Dream. LOL

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    July 14, 2018 at 11:11 #1360276
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    Now that Lord Glitters has hit 4/1 he’s my bet (e/w, 3 places, 1/4 odds).

    July 14, 2018 at 13:34 #1360324
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Eminently good original analysis, wrong decision to change my bets around. Eminent looks a squiggle horse now, again trying to bite rivals when upsides – losing concentration. Mental note, this horse is only a viable bet when absolutely no other pace in the race.

    Beat The Book back to his Joel Stakes form, Nathan. ;-)

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    July 14, 2018 at 14:34 #1360332
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    Happy to see Suedois drifted to 20s in the end..ran a cracker, got his cover and i think a bending mile helps him stay…however, he still wasn’t flying at the finish and will be seen better back in USA later in the season i suspect! WD Ginge!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    July 14, 2018 at 21:24 #1360369
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    In the end I barely made a profit on the race, Jack.

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