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There is a tendency among some to think any horse that stays 2m – or even 1m6f – can be a Gold Cup horse.
Very few horses, especially in the modern era, stay a truly-run 2m2f, never mind 2m4f.
The huge advantage supporters of Coltrane have is they know he stays the trip.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"That is true but 4yos still have an excellent recent record in the race
And all of them will have been unproven over the trip
8 of the last 11 winners were 4
Was also big oranges first go at the trip when he won as a 6yo
So the only horse that’s won since 2012 that was a actually proven at well over 2 miles was stradivarius for his 2nd and 3rd wins
I’m still very sweet on Eldar Eldarov being the best of these and am very very hopeful he will get the trip
As the queen’s vase and leger winner (the leger looked weak at the time but haskoy, giavelotto and eldar eldarov have shown its solid) I think he’s the potential 120+ stayer in the race
I have it as a match between him and Coltrane and I personally tend to side with the younger improver
Only way I can see one of them not winning is if there’s heavy thunderstorms that soak the track and trueshan turns his form around. But that looks very unlikely as he’s been looking very out of love with the game this season.
You don’t really know they will stay until they go do it, even a horse that stays 1m6-2m is not guaranteed to go another 4-6F.
I remember back in the day Sir Henry Cecil had a horse called Manifest who ran Harbinger (in his King George year) to 3L in the John Porter and then he followed up by absolutely hacking up in the Yorkshire Cup beating Melbourne Cup runner up Purple Moon 8L, in the Gold Cup he stopped pretty quickly after coming off the bridle with over 4F to go…the aforementioned Purple Moon finished 3rd that day beaten just 6L.
It is always a proper stamina test that will find out those with any hint of suspect stamina and that is why it always puzzles me that some of the 2m-2m4f hurdlers just below Champion Hurdle class say don’t try giving this race a go – I know it might mean delaying a return to hurdling later in the year but most aren’t in any hurry to run until Christmas anyway.
I think it goes to show just how remarkable a horse dual Gold Cup winner Ardross was, who after his 2nd Gold Cup win went on later that year to be beaten an agonising head in the Arc (the final race of his career)…he also had a rather unusual prep race for that Arc, the Doncaster Cup over 2m 2F!
“it always puzzles me that some of the 2m-2m4f hurdlers just below Champion Hurdle class say don’t try giving this race a go”
Echoes In Rain is an intended runner, but they might need to spend the first half of next year’s hurdle campaign (assuming she doesn’t win and be converted to a Flat mare) scraping her off the ceiling (or the floor).
“That is true but 4yos still have an excellent recent record in the race
And all of them will have been unproven over the trip
8 of the last 11 winners were 4
Was also big oranges first go at the trip when he won as a 6yo
So the only horse that’s won since 2012 that was a actually proven at well over 2 miles was stradivarius for his 2nd and 3rd wins”
FF91 showing his quality yet again there, IMO, with excellent stats and logic.
I can’t dispute any of that.
All I’d say is I maintain it’s never a given that any horse trying the trip for the first time will get the 2m4f and if you can’t back a proven distance winner you need one that shapes like it will stay.
I’ve rather boringly dutched Coltrane and Eldar Eldarov ante-post for this as I can’t see beyond them.
The Leger winner has a tremendous chance if he gets home, but Coltrane is the one I know will.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“I’ve rather boringly dutched Coltrane and Eldar Eldarov ante-post for this as I can’t see beyond them.
The Leger winner has a tremendous chance if he gets home, but Coltrane is the one I know will.”
And that’s what makes it an intriguing renewal
Kyprios not being about has certainly made it a more interesting betting race
Eldar Eldar certainly shapes as though he will get the trip, he may even improve for it
But we won’t know until they turn for home next week
Hopefully one of them doesn’t get a very low draw and get trapped on the inside with knowhere to go so we can get a proper battle
15 confirmed entries.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Probably the trickiest gold cup I can remember. Coltrane and eldar seem the likeliest but guessing who of the unproven ones stays is fun. I fancy Broome might which would give him a great chance. Yibir I’ve no idea and Emily dickinson will but depends what mood she is in. Subjectivist must have a great chance if back to his best. I’ll probably end up going for Broome after his meydan win.
I will have a go with Yibir ,has had pipe opener, can drop in relax then come past them with his turn of foot he can produce from the back .
14 declared.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Subjectivist @ 11/1
It will be some story if they manage to get him back. They must have some belief they could as well as sleepless nights. He looked some horse and possiblyy even 90% could be enough.
One thing you know about Subjectivist is that he – along with Coltrane – will get the trip.
That said, as FF pointed out, eight of the last 11 winners of this were 4yo, hence attempting 2m4f for the first time.
If Eldar Eldarov is equally effective at 2m4f as he is over shorter, he will want some beating.
My ante-post portfolio on this is shocking – Coltrane, Eldar Eldarov and Broome ALL at under current exchange odds.
I’ve added Subjectivist as a saver and I don’t deserve to win on this race frankly.
But I’m hopeful one of the quartet will get me off remand and out on bail.
Not keen on Emily Dickinson, sadly I think Trueshan has gone at the game, I think Yibir takes too much of a hold to be a likely 2m4f stayer and I don’t back hype horses like Courage Mon Ami, not at those odds anyway, who have the best part of a stone to find.
Fascinating Gold Cup, though.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Megan Nicholls does not fancy Yibir…
https://twitter.com/BetfairRacing/status/1669315518858231808
Fair play to her!
Doesn’t sit on the fence and a literally wicked sense of humour there.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Subjectivist
ColtraneIf wind op does not improve Trueshan maybe they will head to retirement with him
VF x
Hilarious from Megan hahaha
She is right though surely
Yibir is a lunatic, who pulls like a mustang
The goshen of the flat, loads of talent but a complete head case
On his day he’s brilliant but he can just decide he wants to be a 5f horse at times
If buick gets this lad up to win this he should be handed ride of the year on the spot
I’m fully bracing myself for him chinning my antepost selection eldar eldarov on the line
Tbh you can Dutch Coltrane and eldar eldarov together on the exchange as about an 11/8 shot, iv seen much worse 11/8s than those two against this field
Trueshan will I’m assuming be a non runner
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