- This topic has 138 replies, 32 voices, and was last updated 7 months, 3 weeks ago by
.
-
Posts
-
“There has been an overreaction to one result.”
I wouldn’t say there has been much of one. He’s still fav for the race so bookies keeping him onside after the no-show. And trainer wasn’t using a lack of experience as an excuse – mentioned the ground hoping for better in March, and test results due for any abnormalities.
My Mate Mozzie at 20/1 EW NRNB is a bet for me. It wasn’t the strongest at Cheltenham ealier in the season but he won in an absolute canter on the old course. At Christmas he ended up second a length down on Found a Fifty in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown. This division is lacking a certainty. So I hope they will target this race. It will probably depend on his mark for the Grand Annual.
My Mate Mozzie 20/1 EW NRNB
Same here DRB. Took the 16’s myself a couple of weeks back when it went NRNB. That should’ve been enough as The Arkle not a race I bother with too much, and wouldn’t normally be a race where I top up, but had a few more quid on at 20’s today. I think he’s got a fair chance of making the frame, and I hope they send him here.
I’ve not too many big Anteposts this year for Cheltenham, but he’s one of my bigger fancies, and even though it’s The Arkle, actually had a decent swing at him
My Mate Mozzie 20’s EW NRNB
Sharjah 50’s EW NRNBFor a race I don’t bother about, I’ve ended up with another. I actually had Sharjah in mind for The Topham, but that 50’s makes a fair bit of appeal, as he’s a horse I’ve always liked.
No Marine Nationale, another ruled out through injury. Not thought to be serious. I backed MY MATE MOZZIE for the Grand Annual but I’ll have a few quid here now also as this news might tempt them a little more.
Put a free bet on at 12/1, probably better price elsewhere but free is free.If these withdrawals weren’t costing me serious quids then I’d find it all rather funny.
But it is, so I don’t.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Marine Nationale, I’d have to, I backed him in the Supreme.
BUT….in all my many years watching racing and betting on it, I can never remember a horse being such a short price for the Arkle as he for a while was after running (and admittedly winning) over fences, err, ONCE!
Hope he’s back next season, but honestly.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Sorry for anyone who backed Marine Nationale but not particularly sorry for connections. The way Connell had been talking all season, it sounded like he thought the horse had already won.
I could not touch the horse now. He looks fragile and he has had breathing issues.
“There has been an overreaction to one result.”
The result there was an overreaction to was his solitary Chase victory.
He won the Supreme well, he’s a good horse, but every year I hear people proclaiming horses a Festival winner the following year and it’s only the really exceptional ones (like Constitution Hill after he won the Supreme half the track) that you can back with confidence and even then things can go wrong as the events of the last week remind everyone.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think it is such an open race that we might see 4/1 the field on Tuesday week. However, the ones I like are representing the home team: JPR One at 8/1 and Matata at 20/1 who ran a very good trial when finishing second to that fast improving horse of Evan Williams Libberty Hunter.
I think both have pretty decent form and will be suited by the track.Massively open and it could be magnified by Found A Fifty and Gaelic Warrior going right handed off the front (if he comes this way) and that Matata has his own ways of doing things too so there could be some carnage in behind. Expect the unexpected
The last 14 winners of the Arkle won last time out. I was hoping to take Marine Nationale on because of this stat but as he’s the latest big name no-show ahead of the increasingly moderate-looking Cheltenham Festival, it has scuppered my price hopes somewhat.
Still, Il Etait Temps will almost certainly drift when Paul Townend chooses to ride Facile Vega. He will be my choice regardless and despite his hurdles form at the festival looking subpar. Every horse in this year’s lineup have chinks and it looks an incredibly weak renewal. He has improved for fences. They’ve settled him down and he gives them a lot more respect than he gave hurdles. I will be happy with 4s or above but hoping for 6s on the day when the other Mullins horses are backed.
Backed JPR One in this, but not at all confident, and seriously thinking of cashing out to double my money. When I backed him I was hoping for around seven runners with the chance of nicking a place. Now that Marine Nationale has gone west it looks as if every tom, dick, and harry will pitch up. Soft ground isn’t good, and the bigger field will put more emphasis on the jocks, and that could easily expose Powell. It wouldn’t surprise me if Matata reversed that Lingfield form. The two should be much closer together. That could happen with Matata shortening and JPR One going for a walk.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.