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Ar mad lame after his run at plumpton yet to be asessed by the vet.
So hold your bets until confirmation if anyone fancies him.
That’s oficcially form the mooresAr mad lame after his run at plumpton yet to be asessed by the vet.
So hold your bets until confirmation if anyone fancies him.
That’s oficcially form the mooresThe Moores having no luck
Does anyone know whether ALISIER D’IRLANDE is likely to run in this?
He was mightily impressive last time out at Naas Raymo. The Arkle is the only race he’s
entered in, but whether Henry De Bromhead thinks he’s up to this is another question.After his Naas run, HDB had this to say …..
” That was exciting to watch. He jumped very well, although he did go out to the left, so I’d say we’ll stick to left-handed tracks going forward.
He’s entered in the Arkle at Cheltenham, but that would be a big ask to go straight there and I’ll have to talk to Roger Brookhouse. There is a winners-of-two race at Leopardstown at the end of the month, and he could run at Aintree in the Maghull.
He’s deeply exciting and I’m lucky to have him. ”
He’s a big price at 50/1, but you would be taking a chance that he does head to The Festival. None
of the bookies are NRNB for this race yet, hopefully it won’t be too much longer before some of them
include this race. Until then personally I’d hold fire until there are some positive noises about him
making an appearance.Ar mad lame after his run at plumpton yet to be asessed by the vet.
So hold your bets until confirmation if anyone fancies him.
That’s oficcially form the mooresThe Moores having no luck
They must be absolutely sick KSS. They thought the world of TRAFFIC FLUIDE, as I did, and he
is out for the season too.Fingers crossed it isn’t as bad as it seems, but even a slight hold up this near to The Festival
is a bit like the kiss of death
They have to be.
Now official – Gary Moore has confirmed Ar Mad is out for the rest of the season
Clearly highlights the ups and downs of racing – hopefully, they will be able to get them both back for next season.
Sizing John at 16/1 ew has to be tempting now at this stage. I doubt there will be even 8 runners on the day so he should only have to beat a few also rans such as Arzal, Fox Norton, maybe The Game Changer who looked ok in the early part of the year to finish at the least in third.
I don’t see De Bromhead stepping him up in trip considering the longest he’s raced over is 2m 1f so far in his career. Even though he was hammered by Douvan last time, he still beat Velvet Maker by 26L who was in 3rd that day. On his second chase start he looked electric over his fences and over hurdles and fences he has only ever finished behind Douvan or Shaneshill. I think the doubt around his target is the reason there is 16/1 available but I do think it is a bit too big.
Ffs just wrote a long post but quit in error. Not writing it again. Only thing that can beat Douvan (whose form doesn’t convince me at all, has beaten 2m 4f horses at best IMO) is Garde la Victoire. Question mark over JLT vs Arkle but Dickie J apparently wants Arkle. With Ar Mad and L’Ami Serge out, and Vaniteux 2nd fav (who they have the beating of on hurdles form), I’m happy to take big prices on the machine about him.
That Sizing D’Irelande thing might win if he starts last year.
Laid off my L’Ami Serge bets for about 60% loss before Henderson announced him as a runner today…oh well, still have a very nice EW double with him and Frosted, so that’s something at least.
Laid off my L’Ami Serge bets for about 60% loss before Henderson announced him as a runner today…oh well, still have a very nice EW double with him and Frosted, so that’s something at least.
You’ve done the wise thing. Doesn’t jump well enough to win an Arkle and will be even worse after that confidence-buster in the Kingmaker, the long term graveyard for Arkle fancies
His jumping was perfect pre-Kingmaker. Not sure what happened there. Could just be that Violet Dancer is a freak.
Now surely this is not as one sided as it looks, last years runaway Supreme winner ‘Douvan‘ is as short as 4/11 to land the Arkle renewal. There is no doubt that as many of us well know he is a formidable force for team Ricci Rich and Wilie Mullin’s and with coming into this race unbeaten this season which has included taking the scalp of Sizing John in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase without going through the gears. He looked even better when landing the Irish equivalant by fifteen lengths, and even though Ruby had to get after him three out he asserted comfortably away from his two rivals. His two Graded wins this season have seen a disappointment of opposition taking him on, with now a rating of 161 and still reasonably young at six you would of thought there was more to come.
So like most of us we are scratching our heads to find what is going to be the value bet in the race, his closest rival in the market is Nicky Henderson’s ‘Vaniteux‘ who won the Grade 2 Lightning Novices Chase at Doncaster when beating Harry Whittington’s Arzal by three and a quarter lengths when in receipt of four pound. Willie Mullin’s Shaneshill never put in a perfomance when sent off the 11/8fav for the race and finished a tired and weary ten lengths further behind Arzal. His second at Kempton reads well when runner up to Gary Moore’s Ar Mad who has gone on to win well at Plumpton two weeks ago. This will be Vaniteux’s third visit to the festival after finishing third to Vautour in the Supreme Novices, but disappointed last year when coming in last of eight in the Champion Hurdle which was won that day by this years missing Champion Faugheen.
Vaniteux would not want for a wet March coming into this race with most of his best performances coming on quicker ground, but to have the guns to beat Douvan and his odds of 5/1 he does not make any appeal for me. The market has been strengthening up over th past two weeks with many being backed against the odds on Douvan especially Shaneshill who is 12s in from 33s and Sizing John who is also subject to support from 20s into 12s, but one that caught my eye at Punchestown back in October was Gigginstown’s ‘THE GAME CHANGER‘ who represents trainer Gordon Elliott. Over the past six renewals home soil have taken charge of this race leading 4-2, Willie Mullin’s Un De Sceaux stopped a five timer for British trainers last year and with Elliott looking to gain his first success in the race I would not be surprised to see a big run from the seven year old this year. His only run at the festival came last season when only managing to finish ninth to Wicklow Brave in the County Hurdle.
Since diverting to the larger obstacles he has been in his element recording six wins from eight starts and finishing runner up in his other two. His two defeats came at Wexford and Galway, the later run saw him finish runner up to Rock The World of Jessica Harrington in the Grade 3 Ballybrit Novices Hurdle going down by two lengths when giving 7lb to the eventual winner. Since dropping back to two miles he has been 1-1 which saw him land the Grade 3 Kilbegnet Novices Chase at Roscommon to go on and land the Grade 3 Like-A Butterfly Novices Hurdle at Tipperary when reversing the form with Rock The World when stepped up to two and a half miles. Dropping back to two miles and the strong possibility of quick ground on the day should suit him and to see him out of the top three would be very surprising.
The best of the British contenders apart from Vaniteux looks to be Philip Hobbs ‘GARDE LA VICTOIRE‘ who looks very over priced despite also being nibbled in the market. The seven year old beat the likes of Bristol De Mai on chase debut when routing him by seven lengths, as we now know the runner up has since gone on to land the Grade 2 Altcar Novices Chase at Haydock by thirty two lengths and went on to exploit his mark of 151 when landing the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown by six lengths and still looks well in on his current mark of just 153 for the future. His second run came here over course and distance when beating Fox Norton by two and a half lengths in the Arkle trial and even though he ran very keen under Dicky Johnson he done the job well.
His first run of 2016 came at Ludlow which looked a perfect opportunity to see how he had come on over the winter, again we saw no chinks in his armour when winning by five lengths over Doctor Harper who has gone on to frank the form at Leicester at the back end of January. His only run at the festival saw him finish a long way down the field to Vautour in the Supreme Novices last year, but if he puts a good round of jumping in and brings his Bristol De Mai form to the race then there is no reason why he should not be thereabouts, only concern would be the ground for him as he would not want to quick even though his Cheltenham win was on good to soft, his best runs to date have been in soft to heavy ground, never-less well worth a few quid each way.
THE GAME CHANGER : 1pt Each Way @ 20/1 (William Hill)
GARDE LA VICTOIRE : 1pt Each Way @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)Darren P Goodbody
I really want Arzal to go for this. He only has Douvan and Vaniteux to beat and he’s got every chance of beating the latter. These three apart, it’s the weakest Arkle for a long time and he’s a phenomenal bet at huge odds (esp at Betfair).
Alisier D’Irlande ran and won at the weekend, any more news if he will run here?
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
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