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To make a dent in Long Run’s current Arkle price he’d need to put in a clean and neat round of jumping and win by a distance at Warwick
Considering the only opposition worth a mention on Saturday is Take The Breeze, beaten out of sight (20+ lengths) by Sizing Europe’s stablemate, An Cathaoir Mor, last time out, a horse whose trainer Henry De Bromhead thinks is not good to even send to Cheltenham.No need to rush these AP vouchers
Astonishing that people are backing LR for the Arkle. A 3 miler whose trainer says will go for the 3 miler at Cheltenham, and who has so little to beat over 2m this weekend that it would prove nothing, and so even if he was redirected to the Arkle we would have little idea as to whether he was really a ‘proper’ 2 miler. Even
if
he hacks up at the weekend and even
if
he did go for the Arkle I still think 8/1 would be about right. Anyone who has taken less than 16/1 for the Arkle needs their head looking at imo.
The horse has several wins at 18f over hurdles, and is very versatile in terms of trip. Heading into the Feltham, the questions were all about whether he would stay.
Long Run is perfectly entitled to drop back to the minimum distance, to see if he also retains the speed he had as a juvenile hurdler.
Exactly. Given his quite obvious potential, who cares about what he beats. And if anyone believes Henderson about future targets and all that, well, good luck to them
It might be about to get interesting.
This horse is the real deal.
He has only just turned 4 but has already won the best part of 3/4 £million.
He is rated better than Kauto at the same age.
You won’t get 8/1 after saturday, the bookies will be ducking for cover.
Arkle winners
2009 Forpadydeplasterer
2008 Tidal Bay
2007 My Way de Solzen
2006 Voy Por Ustedes
2005 Contraband
2004 Well Chief
2003 Azertyuiop
2002 Moscow Flyer
2000 Tiutchev
1999 Flagship Uberalles
1998 Champleve
1997 Or Royale
1996 Ventana Canyon
1995 Klairon Davis
1994 NakirI have always been interested in the widely expressed view that you needed to stay further than 2 miles to win the Arkle or that strong stayers had an advantage. Instinctively, I had always felt this was false and that speed horses were favoured and that maybe people back fitted subsequent staying performances by Arkle winners. Anyway I decided to take a look…
Below are some stats relating to runs around 20f or above that might indicate a strong stayer.
These runs are forNH form before they ran in the Arkle
, which after all is all we have for this seasons contenders.
2009 Forpadydeplasterer
Never won above 18 furlongs
Tried 20f+ 3 times and failed on all 3 occasions.2008 Tidal Bay
Won 7 times at 20 furlongs+2007 My Way de Solzen
Won 5 times beyond 20f2006 Voy Por Ustedes
Never tried over more than 17f before the Arkle2005 Contraband
Only tried once at 20f before the Arkle
Tailed off in this attempt2004 Well Chief
Never tried beyond 17f before the Arkle2003 Azertyuiop
Tried once beyond 17f before the Arkle
5th of 14 beaten 10 lengths2002 Moscow Flyer
Tried twice at 20f before the Arkle
Beaten both times2000 Tiutchev 7 N Henderson 8/1
Tried once at 20f+ before the Arkle
Won by 4 lengths1999 Flagship Uberalles
Tried once at 20f+ before the Arkle
Beaten 11 lengths1998 Champleve
Tried 3 times at 18f+ before the Arkle
Won 2 of 31997 Or Royal
Tried twice at 20f before the Arkle
Won 1 of 21996 Ventana Canyon
Tried 3 times beyond 18f
Won 2 of 31995 Klairon Davis
Never tried beyond 17f before the Arkle1994 Nakir
Never tried beyond 17f before the ArkleOf the last 15 winners …4 winners had never run beyond an extended 2 miles…so evidence of staying not necessarily evident.
In addition…a further 5 winners had tried trips of around 20f and failed (9 races)… at the same time these 5 winners chocked up 30 wins at around 2 miles before the big race.
4 of the winners Tiutchev, Or Royal, Champleve and Ventana Canyon had some of their wins at 20f and looked good stayers.
Finally My Way De Solzen and Tidal Bay were clearly very strong stayers who had been campaigned mostly over longer trips and had won around a dozen races at 20f+.
I am not a trends expert or advocate but I do think they have their place like speed ratings or breeding etc, I know some on here… Zarkava and Gerald for example do some excellent work (2yo thread especially, thanks), it seems to me the above is inconclusive but I would regard the Tidal Bay and MWDS years as unusual (and not particularly strong renewals). As I said I was a bit biased going into this but it does seem to me that winners who had never run above two miles or tried and failed (thereby displaying no strong staying tendencies) are in the majority and also contain mostly the best winners.
So previously when someone said "you need a horse who stays two and a half miles to win in the Arkle" I always thought they were wrong. Now I think they might be wrong.
So that has sorted that then.Nice research Shabby, I believe the perfect 2mile horse round Cheltenahm is one who’s optimum trip is 2m 2f, Forpadydeplasterer had the perfect profile, jumped like a stag and was turned over at 2m 4f whilst always in the mix.
Arkle winners
2010 Somersby
2009 Forpadydeplasterer
2008 Tidal Bay
2007 My Way de Solzen
2006 Voy Por Ustedes
2005 Contraband
2004 Well Chief
2003 Azertyuiop
2002 Moscow Flyer
2000 Tiutchev
1999 Flagship Uberalles
1998 Champleve
1997 Or Royale
1996 Ventana Canyon
1995 Klairon Davis
1994 NakirI have always been interested in the widely expressed view that you needed to stay further than 2 miles to win the Arkle or that strong stayers had an advantage. Instinctively, I had always felt this was false and that speed horses were favoured and that maybe people back fitted subsequent staying performances by Arkle winners. Anyway I decided to take a look…
Below are some stats relating to runs around 20f or above that might indicate a strong stayer.
These runs are forNH form before they ran in the Arkle
, which after all is all we have for this seasons contenders.
2010 Somersby
A future Gold Cup horse who had
blistering speed over 2m.2009 Forpadydeplasterer
Never won above 18 furlongs
Tried 20f+ 3 times and failed on all 3 occasions.2008 Tidal Bay
Won 7 times at 20 furlongs+2007 My Way de Solzen
Won 5 times beyond 20f2006 Voy Por Ustedes
Never tried over more than 17f before the Arkle2005 Contraband
Only tried once at 20f before the Arkle
Tailed off in this attempt2004 Well Chief
Never tried beyond 17f before the Arkle2003 Azertyuiop
Tried once beyond 17f before the Arkle
5th of 14 beaten 10 lengths2002 Moscow Flyer
Tried twice at 20f before the Arkle
Beaten both times2000 Tiutchev 7 N Henderson 8/1
Tried once at 20f+ before the Arkle
Won by 4 lengths1999 Flagship Uberalles
Tried once at 20f+ before the Arkle
Beaten 11 lengths1998 Champleve
Tried 3 times at 18f+ before the Arkle
Won 2 of 31997 Or Royal
Tried twice at 20f before the Arkle
Won 1 of 21996 Ventana Canyon
Tried 3 times beyond 18f
Won 2 of 31995 Klairon Davis
Never tried beyond 17f before the Arkle1994 Nakir
Never tried beyond 17f before the ArkleThis staying and speed talk only makes Captain Cee Bee’s case stronger. Has looked like he was staying on in each of his races so far, and looks to me as a potential Gold Cup horse in the future if time does not run out for him.
Yet it also looks as if he has great speed, judging by how quickly he made up ground on Sizing Europe and his supreme novices win. And all this on ground he hated! If it wasn’t far his mistake at the last over christmas, this horse would be a 7/4 shot now.
Captain Cee Bee has some peerless attributes as you state shaund…but he is also a known bleeder and people are concerned with his jumping so this also is factored into the price.
Let me rephrase, then…..what price do you think Long Run should be?
Right Now? Before Warwick
Arkle? around 10-1 and about 2-1 against a completion
RSA? around 12-1/14-1 certainly no shorter than Pandorama who might well turn out to be the one to be on if it comes up very soft.
There seems every chance that this will be one of these years where it’s all about stamina and ability to jump safely out of soft ground
I’m keeping most of my options (very) open to see what the next few weeks weather bringWish someone was still laying 14’s for the RSA – would top up for that and the 10’s on the Arkle. On a machine
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