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Already replied in Big Races section. Ground looked softer at Ascot than expected and it certainly didn’t suit Free World who IMO barely gets two miles.
Good run from Panjo Bere and Calgary Bay but either of them an Arkle winner? Hmmm, not totally convinced.
I think it was a combination of two things Ian..didn’t get the trip and was outclassed. I thought CB always had his measure.
If the gound was worse than thought remember CB went to Ascot because of the softer ground at Haydock or so she claimed.
More likely it was nearer to home and she just wanted a run into the big horse
Already replied in Big Races section. Ground looked softer at Ascot than expected and it certainly didn’t suit Free World who IMO barely gets two miles.
Good run from Panjo Bere and Calgary Bay but either of them an Arkle winner? Hmmm, not totally convinced.
I think it was a combination of two things Ian..didn’t get the trip and was outclassed. I thought CB always had his measure.
If the gound was worse than thought remember CB went to Ascot because of the softer ground at Haydock or so she claimed.
More likely it was nearer to home and she just wanted a run into the big horse
As it turned out though Fist the ground was better at Haydock and softer at Ascot. Today was a funny day where i thought horses that would’ve been more suited by racing at Haydock were running at Ascot and Vise Versa.
My opinion is that Free World needs a fast two miles (don’t forget not only was the ground softish but it was 17 furlongs as opposed to 16 as well which though only a furlong makes a difference to a horse that barely gets the minimum trip), time will tell.
That extra Furlong is at the start it’s down hill so doesn’t count. Had it been at the end of the race I would agree.
I wrote the above in the hope Corm runs a comp for the dumbest post of the year
I wouldnt argue with regards to the trip………I never noticed it was 2m1f to be honest. Perhaps PN will keep him back or Aintree as even on good ground Cheltenham at the Festival takes some getting.
Already replied in Big Races section. Ground looked softer at Ascot than expected and it certainly didn’t suit Free World who IMO barely gets two miles.
Good run from Panjo Bere and Calgary Bay but either of them an Arkle winner? Hmmm, not totally convinced.
I think it was a combination of two things Ian..didn’t get the trip and was outclassed. I thought CB always had his measure.
If the gound was worse than thought remember CB went to Ascot because of the softer ground at Haydock or so she claimed.
More likely it was nearer to home and she just wanted a run into the big horse
A few thoughts on the above:
Free World – they went a very strong gallop early on (did Ruby think he was on Master Minded?) so as a genuine 2 miler he dropped back when it turned into something of a stamina test.
Calgary Bay – we all know he stays 2m 4f and will more than likely stay 3m in time and as a potentially high class chaser/Gold Cup contender he was able to stay up there for far longer than Free World (genuine 2 miler).
Panjo Bere – came from well off the pace to take two horses who’d cut each other’s throats from very early on. Possibly a fortunate winner but had the race run to suit either way.
Would like to see them hold Free World up next time out and Calgary Bay over 2m 4f+ if possible (won’t happen mind). I still hold FW in high regard and was more impressed with Calgary Bay today as one for the future than at Cheltenham previously. PB could be a decent outside bet for the Arkle.
Was more impressed with the run of CB
Ha, ha , ha
Loved your posts Fists. The extra furlong is at the start instead of at the end.
Slightly squiffy
have just had bets on Forpadydeplasterer (their spelling not mine) and
Nicanor, as he’s entered for the Oirish Arkle.Would have also had a bet on Hotel Hilamar, but he ain’t in the list.
I don’t have a refrigerator, so I’m off to the offie to top up.
Lots of love
Gerald
If the gound was worse than thought remember CB went to Ascot because of the softer ground at Haydock or so she claimed.
More likely it was nearer to home and she just wanted a run into the big horse
A rushed campaign so far, Fist.
I think we’ve been watching a horse operating at about 85 / 90%.
That can’t be right according to Ginge
You are probably correct and it wouldn’t suprise me if PN had let his down a bit too. Good trainers wouldn’t have any fancied horse for the festival 100% fit at this time.That’s why we get turnarounds and surprises year after year.
Its also why NH is flawed – surely its not acceptable to be completely guessing about fitness during 3 months between the KG and Cheltenam right in the heart of the season?
A rushed campaign so far, Fist.
I think we’ve been watching a horse operating at about 85 / 90%.
It feels like I’m picking on you, Bos (honest, I ain’t!), but if there is one trainer in the UK who is unlikely to run a horse when conditions are against it……especially one of her stable stars…….it is Henrietta Knight.
I’ve lost count of the number of times she has pulled horses because the ground wasn’t the right shade of green, or because the millinery options in the tented village were not to her liking. Hard to believe then, that she would run Calgary Bay when not fit to grace the racecourse. And regardless………..if he wasn’t fit after his first or second runs, how many runs does it take to get him fit?
I think you have pinned your colours to this one, and are perhaps too prepared to use the alleged training delay (it seems to be no more than that) as an excuse for defeat last weekend.
That’s entirely your perogative, and perhaps he hasn’t been at full fitness, but the evidence to back that up would seem to be pretty thin on the ground.
I would normally agree Grass but she surely had to run him?. He had only run twice over fences and I would have thought needed the experience. Free World would be expected to go a good gallop and that would be invaluable to thehorse
I would normally agree Grass but she surely had to run him?. He had only run twice over fences and I would have thought needed the experience. Free World would be expected to go a good gallop and that would be invaluable to thehorse
Not necessarily, Fist.
Well Chief won an Arkle with only a single run in a Taunton novice under his belt, and there are plenty of races available for the horse between now and the Festival.
I’m not saying that Calgary Bay can’t win the Arkle (though I confess, I don’t fancy him myself) – I’m merely saying that there is scant evidence to suggest that he has been "85-90% fit" in his runs this season.
A rushed campaign so far, Fist.
I think we’ve been watching a horse operating at about 85 / 90%.
It feels like I’m picking on you, Bos (honest, I ain’t!), but if there is one trainer in the UK who is unlikely to run a horse when conditions are against it……especially one of her stable stars…….it is Henrietta Knight.
I’ve lost count of the number of times she has pulled horses because the ground wasn’t the right shade of green, or because the millinery options in the tented village were not to her liking. Hard to believe then, that she would run Calgary Bay when not fit to grace the racecourse. And regardless………..if he wasn’t fit after his first or second runs, how many runs does it take to get him fit?
I think you have pinned your colours to this one, and are perhaps too prepared to use the alleged training delay (it seems to be no more than that) as an excuse for defeat last weekend.
That’s entirely your perogative, and perhaps he hasn’t been at full fitness, but the evidence to back that up would seem to be pretty thin on the ground.
HK stated before the race that she would’ve liked to get the horse out earlier, but was unable due to an injury he sustained when falling over on the road.
I expected to see him quite early in the season. HK usually targets her top prospects at novice chases during the early stages of the season (usually at Exeter). In recent years, Best Mate made his chase debut in mid-October and Racing Demon early November and I’m sure she intended for Calgary Bay to be out by then.
On the topic of experience / fitness, history tells us that Henrietta Knight doesn’t send her ‘top prospects’ to Cheltenham with little experience.
Best Mate had three runs before an intended Arkle run. Racing Demon had three runs before the Arkle in ’06 and, you guessed it, Calgary Bay has now had three outings before his Arkle bid.
It’s well known to the racing public that HK will only run her horses if the conditions are right, but this horse has presented her with a different scenario. The injury didn’t help and her hand has been forced in more ways than one – she wanted to know if Calagry Bay had the speed for an Arkle. She needed to get another run into him and the competition / conditions at Ascot were perfect for her to find out. Let’s say that she entered him for a race in late January / early February and the meeting was abandoned, the ground went against him or the competition wasn’t great. Then what?
The result. She clearly wanted to get another run into him, but he’s now short of experience and she’s none the wiser if he has the attributes to win an Arkle.
He stands 17.3hh, Grass. Do you think he’s an easy horse to get fit? I think she’s played it by ear with him this season and hasn’t prepared him for any specific contest. Perhaps ‘85%’ is a bit unrealistic, but I don’t think he’s been 100% at any stage this season.
I don’t think she was thrilled to give him three races in quick succession, but her options were limited. The Scilly Isles (Best Mate’s last stop before an intended Arkle bid) was an option, but it would’ve told her little about his prospects of winning an Arkle.
It’s clear he loves Cheltenham. His performances at Doncaster and Cheltenham told us he’s a good horse. Ascot told HK that he has the pace to go for the Arkle. That was the important part for her.
She now realises Calgary Bay is a leading contender for Cheltenham. She has seven weeks to prepare him for the race and we know she can prepare good horse for the big occasion.
I highlighted this horse as a contender for the race in November when an unfancied 40/1 and, on what I’ve seen from him and the competition thus far, I’m still convinced he has a solid chance. I’msingingtheblues is good value, in my opinion, and Jayo also holds a big chance.
The two I am liking most for the Arkle at the moment are Imsingingtheblues and Jayo. Don’t know where either are due to run next but in what looks an open race, they would be my picks so far. Calgary Bay will obviously run better at Cheltenham and if McCoy can ride will have a huge weight pull on Saturday’s run, but last year’s Arkle was fairly weak apart from the winner due to Noland not being right and the previous year’s saw two of its star turns fall before the race reallt got going. As a rule it is not really a race for non 2 milers and I think the proper speed horses will prevail, unless they over water this year.
I"msingingtheblues is a horse i cant work out, his run in last years County
hurdle was astonishing, held up last, still cantering 2 out and still virtually last, running on all the way up the hill without ever threatening! His chasing
is right up to scratch although he seems suited well to flat tracks! Its that run in the County hurdle that suggests to me Cheltemham wont pose any problems and i cant dismiss him from equations! Forpadydeplasterer would be my selection if the race was run tomorrow!Running in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown on Sunday GWILSON
He wont be 16/1 for the Arkle after that then "Imperial" time to top up now!
I"msingingtheblues is a horse i cant work out, his run in last years County hurdle was astonishing
Take the County Hurdle out of it, I’msingingtheblues won the Grade 2 Sharp Novices’ Hurdle at the 2007 Open Meeting from Snap Tie (pair clear), which should prove his "Cheltenham credentials" beyond all doubt. Personally, I’m quite sweet on him for the Arkle as his form more or less stacks up over fences thus far.
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