Are RacingPost Bias?

[GodolphinArabian]

With Toormore withdrawn from the Racing Post Trophy ive looked at there 2yo ratings and they have rated Toormore 3 pounds better than War Command? Why?

[stevecaution]

Sudirman has raced against both horses, beating War Command and then being beaten by Toormore fairly readily. That seems as good a way of coming to the conclusion that Toormore is the better animal, unless you have quantifiable reasoning to suggest the opposite.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[MarkTT]

Toormore is my Guineas horse. The stable has taken similar horses Trumpet Major and Dick Turpin and almost won that and i think Toormore could be even better next season. Nice to see him win in May this year, like to see horses for the Guineas that have come to hand early.

[tbracing]

Sudirman has raced against both horses, beating War Command and then being beaten by Toormore fairly readily. That seems as good a way of coming to the conclusion that Toormore is the better animal, unless you have quantifiable reasoning to suggest the opposite.

There is your answer.

[andyod]

So how do we rate horses who beat each other? Does it depend on the whole season or do we just keep changing their ratings as the season goes on? Dawn Approach is better than Toronado this week.But next week not so.This seems logical but getting out of the rating business seems like a more logical road to take if that is how we do it.Or just go by their last run? Surely distance and ground conditions have some bearing on a result.Those are certainly quantifiable reasons,are they not?Hence the decision based only on who beat whom and when means little as a determinant

[Gingertipster]

With Toormore withdrawn from the

Racing Post Trophy

ive looked at there 2yo ratings and they have rated Toormore 3 pounds better than

War Command?

Why?

I haven’t looked at who should be "top rated" myself GA, Timeform also have Toormore in front of War Command (only by a pound), so Racing Post are not much different.

Value Is Everything

[stilvi]

If you use Outstrip as your marker then War Command is the better horse. Perhaps Outstrip didn’t run his race in the Dewhurst but you could also argue he hit the front too soon at Goodwood and for whatever reason War Command was below par when beaten by Sudirman.

I would say 3lbs is pretty generous but what really matters is who passes the line first in the 2,000 Guineas.

[MarkTT]

If you use Outstrip as your marker then War Command is the better horse. Perhaps Outstrip didn’t run his race in the Dewhurst but you could also argue he hit the front too soon at Goodwood and for whatever reason War Command was below par when beaten by Sudirman.

I would say 3lbs is pretty generous but what really matters is who passes the line first in the 2,000 Guineas.

Toormore won that Goodwood race easily – you can’t just go by the distances.

It’s close and maybe there’s some theory involved with Toormore being less exposed and the Coventry form looking suspect.

[stevecaution]

If you use Outstrip as your marker then War Command is the better horse. Perhaps Outstrip didn’t run his race in the Dewhurst but you could also argue he hit the front too soon at Goodwood and for whatever reason War Command was below par when beaten by Sudirman.

I would say 3lbs is pretty generous but what really matters is who passes the line first in the 2,000 Guineas.

The evidence suggests Outstrip didn’t run to his best in the Dewhurst. In his previous race, where he beat The Grey Gatsby by three lengths, Cable Bay was a further head away in third, yet in The Dewhurst, over the same trip and going, Outstrip finished one and a half lengths

behind

Cable Bay. That is a turn around of almost five lengths and Cable Bay was making his seventh start of the season, so unlikely to have suddenly improved.

There have been 43 runs from horses who ran in the Coventry and other than War Command the only horse to win a race was Lanark, who went on to be dire in three races since. War Command has won four times now but was only exciting on one occasion. Toormore on the other hand has looked better with each run and looks the ideal type to fill out over the winter. If he makes the same amount of progress as Toronado did from two to three and doesn’t do a Canford Cliffs on us, he will be the one they are all worried about next May.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Gingertipster]

If you use Outstrip as your marker then War Command is the better horse. Perhaps Outstrip didn’t run his race in the Dewhurst but you could also argue he hit the front too soon at Goodwood and for whatever reason War Command was below par when beaten by Sudirman.

I would say 3lbs is pretty generous but what really matters is who passes the line first in the 2,000 Guineas.

The evidence suggests Outstrip didn’t run to his best in the Dewhurst. In his previous race, where he beat The Grey Gatsby by three lengths, Cable Bay was a further head away in third, yet in The Dewhurst, over the same trip and going, Outstrip finished one and a half lengths

behind

Cable Bay. That is a turn around of almost five lengths and Cable Bay was making his seventh start of the season, so unlikely to have suddenly improved.

There have been 43 runs from horses who ran in the Coventry and other than War Command the only horse to win a race was Lanark, who went on to be dire in three races since. War Command has won four times now but was only exciting on one occasion. Toormore on the other hand has looked better with each run and looks the ideal type to fill out over the winter. If he makes the same amount of progress as Toronado did from two to three and doesn’t do a Canford Cliffs on us, he will be the one they are all worried about next May.

I don’t think you’d question Cable Bay improving on his 7th start had you seen him in the flesh Steve. He’s big, just the sort who is bound to improve with age through his two year old year and quite possibly next year too.

You again fail to mention War Command’s winning distance in the Coventry Steve. When a horse wins by

6 lengths

, those he beat do not have to

"win"

to

frank

the form. The first 5 home went on to be

placed in good races

afterwards. So considering there was

6 lengths and more

back to the

next 4 horses home

… War Command’s Ascot

"form"

tells you he wouldn’t have just won, he’d have been a

very easy winner

of: The

July

Stakes,

Richmond

,

Anglesey

and

Prix Morny

all through Jallota, July Stakes also through Sir John Hawkins, Richmond also through Thunder Strike,

Goodwood Champagne

and

Gimcrack

both through Parbold… Plus numerous Sales Races. ie The second, third, fourth and fifth were beaten in all the above races by

much

less than they were beaten in the Coventry.

And through those same horses War Command would’ve also won races like the

Flying Childers

and

Middle Park

.

"Form" tells the punter how good a horse is,

not

how many wins came from a race. I don’t believe there’s much between War Command’s three wins at Ascot, The Curragh and Newmarket, but can see him improving further at three. Considering the ease of victory at Ascot, it would’ve been disappointing had the beaten horses been good enough to win good races.

Toormore has a good case for being better than War Command at this stage, but there’s not a lot in it. Certainly think he has a good chance in the Guineas, be interesting to see who makes the most improvement Steve.

Value Is Everything

[stevecaution]

.
I don’t think you’d question Cable Bay improving on his 7th start had you seen him in the0 flesh Steve. He’s big, just the sort who is bound to improve with age through his two year old year and quite possibly next year too.

You again fail to mention War Command’s winning distance in the Coventry Steve. When a horse wins by

6 lengths

, those he beat do not have to

"win"

to

frank

the form. The first 5 home went on to be

placed in good races

afterwards. So considering there was

6 lengths and more

back to the

next 4 horses home

… War Command’s Ascot

"form"

tells you he wouldn’t have just won, he’d have been a

very easy winner

of: The

July

Stakes,

Richmond

,

Anglesey

and

Prix Morny

all through Jallota, July Stakes also through Sir John Hawkins, Richmond also through Thunder Strike,

Goodwood Champagne

and

Gimcrack

both through Parbold… Plus numerous Sales Races. ie The second, third, fourth and fifth were beaten in all the above races by

much

less than they were beaten in the Coventry.

And through those same horses War Command would’ve also won races like the

Flying Childers

and

Middle Park

.

"Form" tells the punter how good a horse is,

not

how many wins came from a race. I don’t believe there’s much between War Command’s three wins at Ascot, The Curragh and Newmarket, but can see him improving further at three. Considering the ease of victory at Ascot, it would’ve been disappointing had the beaten horses been good enough to win good races.

Toormore has a good case for being better than War Command at this stage, but there’s not a lot in it. Certainly think he has a good chance in the Guineas, be interesting to see who makes the most improvement Steve.

Ginger, we had most of this conversation before and we agreed you can have your take on it and I will have mine.

You say that form shows War Command would have won the Middle Park, yet Sudirman who beat War Command over the Middle Park distance of 6f, was only 5th in the Middle Park. That doesn’t add up unless we start making excuses for Sudirman, who was alledgedly so good in beating War Command that they had to go back and upgrade his mark for winning the Railway Stakes to make the form look less of a surprise.

I am really unconcerned how big Cable Bay is. His ratings going into the Dewhurst were 107,108,108,108 which suggest consistency, rather than improvement. He went off a 20/1 shot in the Dewhurst, again hardly indicative of an improver who could shake up the field. Cable Bay may make a decent horse next year but he’s clearly short of being top class at this stage, a remark that also applies to Jallota, whom you mention above and who is still only a maiden winner after eleven starts.

For all the races you say War Command would have won, we can now simply insert Toormore and make the same claim. What odds would Toormore be in a race against Jallota, Thunder Strike, Sir John Hawkins and Cable Bay if they all lined up over 7f today?

Everybody knows how far War Command won the Coventry by and he looked stunning that day. Outside of the pure form though, he has made it look harder work in his other races since and a defeat is the ultimate shaker of one’s confidence in a horse.

You are on War Command for the Guineas and I have backed Toormore for the race at 20/1. It is up to forum readers to decide who has the better looking bet but I am happy with my selection. I don’t buy racing papers or subscribe to Timeform, I simply watch races and use my own judgement. You have a different approach and I respect your opinion and the work you put into the game. I certainly couldn’t contemplate the hours sifting through the lower level stuff day in day out.

Stubbs is out today, so I suppose it’s not too late to give a wee boost to the Coventry form that smells like a Tour De France winners gusset, from my viewpoint anyway! Sacre Bleu!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stilvi]

I wouldn’t be that convinced at the relative solidity of Toormore’s form. As I said Outstrip made a very early move at Goodwood (I would guess he traded pretty short in running) and he definitely emptied close home. The National Stakes was the only time we have seen Sudirman over seven furlongs this season and he didn’t settle particularly well. As for War Command he was striking in the Coventry (that will probably be one of the few bits of big field form on show going into the Guineas) but has looked much more of a stayer in his subsequent races. He almost certainly won despite the ground at Newmarket.

[Nathan Hughes]

I find it hard to say as like Andyod mentioned different course, going, tactics, pace etc is difficult to factor it all in. When War Command lost to Sudirman I wonder how much of a coincidence it was that the intended pacemaker was a non runner. War Command needs a start to finish decent pace to follow.

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[Gingertipster]

Ginger, we had most of this conversation before and we agreed you can have your take on it and I will have mine.

You say that form shows War Command would have won the Middle Park, yet Sudirman who beat War Command over the Middle Park distance of 6f, was only 5th in the Middle Park. That doesn’t add up unless we start making excuses for Sudirman, who was alledgedly so good in beating War Command that they had to go back and upgrade his mark for winning the Railway Stakes to make the form look less of a surprise.

I am really unconcerned how big Cable Bay is. His ratings going into the Dewhurst were 107,108,108,108 which suggest consistency, rather than improvement. He went off a 20/1 shot in the Dewhurst, again hardly indicative of an improver who could shake up the field. Cable Bay may make a decent horse next year but he’s clearly short of being top class at this stage,

a remark that also applies to Jallota, whom you mention above and who is still only a maiden winner after eleven starts.

each other

. At the time of No Nay Never’s Prix Morny Group 1 it was put up by some good TRF judges as an excellent performance… Subsequently had its "form" franked in no uncertain terms with the length second Vorda going on to win Group 1 Cheveley Park… And 3/4 of a length 3rd Rizeena winning Group 1 Moyglare on their next starts. Now Steve, was that "good form" put up by No Nay Never? Yes or No?…

… Well Jallota was only a neck away in 4th!!! That’s just a

neck

away from one Group 1 winner and just

one length

away from another (neck + 3/4), and only

2 lengths

from yet another (neck, 3/4 and length). Yet you Steve want to dismiss Jalotta as

"still only a maiden winner after 11 starts"

.

For all the races you say War Command would have won, we can now simply insert Toormore and make the same claim. What odds would Toormore be in a race against Jallota, Thunder Strike, Sir John Hawkins and Cable Bay if they all lined up over 7f today?

Everybody knows how far War Command won the Coventry by and he looked stunning that day. Outside of the pure form though, he has made it look harder work in his other races since and a defeat is the ultimate shaker of one’s confidence in a horse.

You are on War Command for the Guineas and I have backed Toormore for the race at 20/1. It is up to forum readers to decide who has the better looking bet but I am happy with my selection.

So you bloody well should be "happy" with your selection Steve! In my opinion these two horses have equally as good a chance in the Guineas. In my opinion both are currently excellent value at around 10/1. I’ve been thinking about backing Toormore @ 10/1, but already have two selections. You have better value with 20/1 Toormore than my 12/1 War Command, so it doesn’t take a genius to "decide who has the better looking bet". Do you want to swap Steve? I know you’re such a fan of the Irish horse. Though my 50/1 Be Ready might beat them both!

I don’t buy racing papers or subscribe to Timeform, I simply watch races and use my own judgement. You have a different approach and I respect your opinion and the work you put into the game.

Doesn’t matter how you find those bets, you find them full stop. Do you use the internet to study? We all use our "own judgement" Steve.

I certainly couldn’t contemplate the hours sifting through the lower level stuff day in day out.

Stubbs is out today, so I suppose it’s not too late to give a wee boost to the Coventry form that smells like a Tour De France winners gusset, from my viewpoint anyway! Sacre Bleu!

Don’t forget Steve, with

6 lengths

between winner and second, there was plenty of room to fit in some

better horses

. On subsequent form lines through those horses you think were so poor Steve… those "

better horses

" would include No Nay Never, Vorda, Rizeena, Astaire etc etc…

Value Is Everything

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