Arc rematch Sunday 25 Nov – Japan Cup

[wit]

Mount Athos withdrawn from HK Vase

from today’s SCMP (Alan Aitken):

"…but on the positive side Red Cadeaux, an eye-catching eighth in the Japan Cup, and Japanese veteran Jaguar Mail, who finished 10th, both came through the race well and will go on to the Vase.

They will be hoping to tread the path of some previous Japan Cup runners who found the Vase more to their liking after being comfortably held in Tokyo.

Red Cadeaux’s trainer, Ed Dunlop, used a fifth in Japan as the lead-up run for Ouija Board’s win in the 2005 Vase, following the example of the Andrew Balding-trained Phoenix Reach, who finished sixth in Tokyo before winning at Sha Tin in 2004.

In 2008, Cumani-trained Purple Moon was narrowly touched off in a photo for the Hong Kong Vase after running ninth in the Japan Cup, and Jaguar Mail has run well at Sha Tin previously after contesting the Tokyo event as his lead-up.

The Jockey Club has now elevated the Alain de Royer Dupre-trained Bayrir into the Vase as a replacement for Mount Athos, but no replacement is expected for The Fugue and the field is down to 13. "

[Jollyp]

Is there such a thing as an eye catching 8th,he was beaten 6 and a half lengths mate. Wit, Red Cadeaux is no Ouija Board,not up to HK Vase standard.He has had about 25 starts for 4 wins,a pretty poor strike rate,should never have had an invite to Japan.He is a decent horse,pretty consistent,but it would have to be by far the worst HK vase for him to win.He is not a great WFA horse,if it was a 2 mile handicap,yes,a 12f WFA Group 1,no.

[wit]

i don’t disagree with your assessment of Red Cadeaux – he doesn’t win G1s but he has tended to get placed in them at backable odds.

at least that was so last year, with a nose second at Flemington then 1.5 lengths d.h. third to the same winner in the Vase:

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meet … 11211/ST/4

this year’s Vase ? well, he’s already seen the hindquarters of Sea Moon and Dunaden so it does look tougher:

http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2012-longin … 01851.html

will wait to see his price.

[Jollyp]

Yes,i must admit,he did perform better than what i thought in HK last year,i suppose if he runs up to that he is in with a chance.I just cant get over his 4/25 strike rate though,i think usually you would expect a bit more from the big chances in 12f Group 1’s.Though he is tough and pretty consistent.

[slewman]

Alan ‘Hats’ Aitken’s line in the SCMP that Red Cadeaux was an eye-catching 8th was quite absurd. Nothing eye-catching about the run. Must have been looking at a different race to me.

[wit]

back to 1st / 2nd, the patrol footage is now up:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AACEWhO9 … re=related

(with a little bit of interference on Red Cadeaux at the end ;o) )

[Jollyp]

2 points: A: How the hell wasn’t that protest upheld! Ofevre knocked right off balance and the last 4 or 5 strides was finishing better.B: The jock on the winner put the elbow in a couple of times onto Ofevre’s jock, foul riding almost!

[Author]

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