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I reckon Stoute may feel Crystal Ocean can’t turn it around with Enable and won’t run him in the Arc. I know I wouldn’t bother.
Some people place a bet, know they have little chance of collecting on it and then simply move on. Others seem to need to talk themselves into thinking the bet still has a chance.
What were the odds on Crystal Ocean before today’s race anyway? He’s red across the board and surely some of that is because he was handed his plums on a platter by a horse who had been off for 11 months, rather the bluster about not having a definite target yet.
Crystal Ocean has won 3 Group 3 races and one Group 2. He was odds on in that 5 runner race and the form isn’t worth much. Half of the runners seemed to go on to take Stradivarius on, so were unlikely to appreciate a mile and a half on quick ground.
An awful lot of Crystal Ocean’s hope is based on his King George run. There is a chance it wasn’t as good a race as was first thought. Enable is much more assured, as a multiple group 1 winner and Arc Champion. It’s like holding up a wee willie winkie sausage, against the late John Holmes, when vying for a role in Dessie Does Dallas.
As I said earlier, the 9/4 was still worth taking. Best price now is 7/4 and William Hill got it wrong going 5/2 after the race today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
When they train them day in day out, clock the times ran over the mile at home amongst the horses there training with, it would be pretty easy to know they have her more than 50% ready and not quite 100%
Especially when someone like JG sais so
Hands and heels comfortably beating a 129 horse, forget the penalty, she would have wonregardless under hands and heels…. so yeah, ill be surprised if CO runs when hes more than capable of another group 1 that she wont be involved in
I never in a second said he would win above, but where else does he run? He wants the trip and ground and looks every bit a G1 hoss on that KG performance.
Don’t take everything so literally Mark, I mentioned earlier in the thread JG, would likely have her 80% today, just means he’s kept ‘a bit up his sleeve’.
“Everything”?
Totally agree with you, Pants; saying a trainer is likely to have the horse 80% fit is fine, does mean he’s kept a bit up his sleeve or not quite in top form.I was talking about a trainer diiferentiating between two figures – “She’ll come on for that as she was only 80 per cent fit, 85 at a stretch”… May be “nonsense” is the wrong word because it comes over far too strong a criticism for what was possibly just a throw away comment. Is there a better word? I like Gosden and like listening to him. Just that differentiating between two figures like that doesn’t really mean anything (nonsense).
Value Is EverythingI reckon Stoute may feel Crystal Ocean can’t turn it around with Enable and won’t run him in the Arc. I know I wouldn’t bother.
Some people place a bet, know they have little chance of collecting on it and then simply move on. Others seem to need to talk themselves into thinking the bet still has a chance.
What were the odds on Crystal Ocean before today’s race anyway? He’s red across the board and surely some of that is because he was handed his plums on a platter by a horse who had been off for 11 months, rather the bluster about not having a definite target yet.
Crystal Ocean has won 3 Group 3 races and one Group 2. He was odds on in that 5 runner race and the form isn’t worth much. Half of the runners seemed to go on to take Stradivarius on, so were unlikely to appreciate a mile and a half on quick ground.
An awful lot of Crystal Ocean’s hope is based on his King George run. There is a chance it wasn’t as good a race as was first thought. Enable is much more assured, as a multiple group 1 winner and Arc Champion. It’s like holding up a wee willie winkie sausage, against the late John Holmes, when vying for a role in Dessie Does Dallas.
As I said earlier, the 9/4 was still worth taking. Best price now is 7/4 and William Hill got it wrong going 5/2 after the race today.
Crystal Ocean may well not run, partly due to needing to supplement; partly because yes there are other alternatives, then there’s the fact Stoute also has Poet’s Word. If feeling Poet’s Word needs 1 1/2 miles to show his very best then may be he’ll go Arc and CO Breeders Cup or Canadian International. May be with CO not yet a Group 1 winner connections will want to go for the easy option.
Yes, you may be right that the King George not being quite as good as it first looked, but it’s early days for that yet – we’ll see. Both Poet’s Word and Crystal Ocean did have very hard races there (in a fast time) so sometimes horses don’t show their form next time. Coronet upheld the form well in the Yorkshire Oaks and on the back of the 9 lengths third you backed her to beat Sea Of Class…
…But what you don’t seem to realise is if Crystal Ocean’s form “isn’t worth much” then neither is the September Stakes/Enable’s performance worth much. You can’t have it both ways due to how form works. LOL
Enable was getting 5 lbs better than weight for age, so on that form she’ll have around a length to spare on Crystal Ocean in the Arc. imo She’s better than that! But she is yet to prove capable of last year’s form. If the two run to their respective bests there will imo be between 2 1/2 and 3 lengths between the pair at Longchamp. Crystal Ocean actually achieved a better rating than Enable for Kempton, if not adding the sex allowance. But if thinking all horses that are only capable of that should stay away, then the Arc will only have two runners this year. Then again, you have already backed them both, so can’t blame you for wishful thinking.
Don’t know what price CO was before yesterday, tbh. I took 10/1 earlier so haven’t got the very best value. But even if not having the chance I thought before yesterday, might be wrong but still believe he is better than 9% chance. Happy with my 5/1 Lay Sea Of Class too; Enable could help me there. Yes, I never give up, especially as am on an Arc five timer having backed Treve, Golden Horn Found and Enable (the three fillies ante-post well in advance). So may be you’re right that am over confident of Crystal Ocean’s form. Treve was at a shorter price than SP though, and I gave up on her and went out for a walk with my girlfriend while she won!
You’ve certainly got a good bet with 5/1 Enable, Steve and deserve a change of luck after so many not going your way this season.
Hope Cracksman at least runs for you too, although he’s likely to be nearly double the price you took and your Saxon Warrior bet more or less already lost.Value Is EverythingI backed CO each way at 15/1, straight after his KG run, also have Enable at 5’s. Am happy with both bets, I don’t think Stoute should run scared of the filly, CO wouldn’t be without a chance. He was a general 7’s before yesterday, out to 12’s now which is a slight overreaction if you ask me. L’Arc is a very different race/occasion to a match race at Kempton.
I’d be quite pleased if I’d backed Enable for the Arc. If she turns up with the same enthusiasm as yesterday, she’ll be hard to beat. Gosden is confident she won’t bounce despite her showing classic signs of a potential bouncer – the enthusiasm and reported excitement at being back on the racecourse.
She looked to my eye to be on the wrong leg more than once rounding the bends (what did you think hein bollow?) and maybe it was unfamiliarity with the surface. She certainly powered away in her customary fashion and I hope she makes it to Longchamp as I want Cracksman to get full credit when he wins the Arc.
as I want Cracksman to get full credit when he wins the Arc.
You’re a man after my own heart, Joe!
Enable was very impressive, and if you’re Frankie you probably choose her because she’s a lot more reliable (and he is absolutely in love with her!). But I wouldn’t be under-estimating Cracksman.
Thats not why he will choose enable, its purely on the fact that she has shown FAR SUPERIOR form.
Well Joe, I think the race yesterday got far more attention than it has deserved. It may have been a good performance from Enable, but in this small field she could race freely and she didn’t get under pressure.
In Longchamp this will be completely different, as she will be worn down by the big, strong son of Frankel!
It’s really soul food and nice to read that I’m not the only one to keep the faith I can’t see Enable losing this to be honest.
Cracksman would need it a bog, Sea Of Class won’t run if it’s not quick and is likely to be either too far back or encounter trouble in running. I don’t think Lah Ti Dar will run and the rest just don’t look good enough to go past her. Crystal Ocean looks to have a big ask on his hands now and Poet’s Word is another who will probably struggle to get to her from his running style.
Maybe if someone puts down a marker in the next fortnight I may change my mind but Study Of Man will probably have to win the Irish Champion against Roaring Lion and Capri would have to smash up the Prix Foy field.
I’m going to Paris this year for my 4th Arc. I have yet to see a French winner and can’t see that statistic changing: Danedream (German), Golden Horn (English), Found (Irish).
My current thinking is that I’ll have every Euro in my pocket on Frankie’s flying filly.
I can’t have Capri at all. He was 17th of 18 runners last season, having come in after landing the Irish Derby and Leger. He seemed at the top of his game in the lead up to the race.
Since that race, Capri has only run once in winning by a head from a horse rated 16 lbs inferior. That was a 10F race and a bit short but it was soft/heavy and I think he would actually have been caught had it been another half furlong.
For sure, that race was miles away from an Arc and it is hard to fathom that Capri sits shorter in some places than he was for last year’s Arc with many more negatives this time around.
Cracksman just hasn’t had the season that was expected. There was talk that he’d never be beaten again and even a comparison with Frankel’s racing action in which Cracksman came out the better looking mover. For me, if we take away the 7 length win over Poet’s Word it looks a whole lot less sexy for Cracksman.
There seemed quite a consensus last year after the Epsom and Irish Derbies that Cracksman looked an awkward mover. I compared him to the middle distance runner Peter Elliott and that resonated with some others on the forum. The trainer’s reluctance to chance Cracksman on better ground seems to hint that he perhaps needs a good bit of cut to be seen at his best and when asked if the horse might show something really special before the start of the Prince Of Wales, Gosden tellingly replied “Maybe in the Autumn”
I don’t like the way Cracksman has looked this year and I like the way he has been campaigned even less.
I have Cracksman at 5/1 from earlier in the season and if it’s gutters, and he’s back to form he will have potential but blind faith won’t help him.
At the same 5/1 odds, Enable has to be my best chance and there is little to fear for her if she comes on as you would expect. Gosden doesn’t think she will bounce and it was a pretty straightforward comeback for her. Who would put their life on the line that Crystal Ocean will reverse form?
I have £2 on Saxon Warrior from last year at 50/1. That bet looked OK up until the Epsom Derby but the slip was washed out to the seaside wrapped around a “Floater” many moons ago. I don’t envisage having to comb the beaches for that one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
On Capri, i am willing to put a line through that Arc run, he wasn’t at the races at all. I do agree with you though, 25/1 isn’t great considering his absence. I took 140 on Betfair on him, just because it was mentioned as his target. His 3yo form prior to The Arc was very good indeed. Enable obviously is much better than him, so i wouldn’t be confident of collecting!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Whats the likelyhood in cracksman missing this now for another ascot tilt, has to surely be contemplated and youd imagine frankie and JG are leaning on AO ?
i wouldn’t be surprised if Cracksman went for both Ham, would AO be happy with swerving The Arc again?
Its less than two weeks between races, but Cracksman put back to back wins together last season Voltigeur/Niel which was an 18 day gap, so anything is possible. Will be interesting to see which way they go
Whats the likelyhood in cracksman missing this now for another ascot tilt, has to surely be contemplated and youd imagine frankie and JG are leaning on AO ?
My thoughts exactly, ham.
If Cracksman had a good season I think he may well have taken Enable on; but now I doubt it. If he were mine I’d be going back to Ascot. If he does go to France and runs anything like a good race – as nwalton says – unless winning there I think he’ll run in the Champion aswell. Certainly won’t be going to America with the liklihood of fast ground and connections will want to end his career on a win. Can see Roaring Lion missing the English Champion and being Gosden’s Breeders Cup representitive (US pedigree and loves a sound surface).Just taken the 5/1 Cracksman for the (English) Champion Stakes.
Value Is EverythingI think there is a good chance Cracksman won’t go. If Enable is pleasing the trainer leading up to the race then they may advise Cracksman’s team that he is unlikely to beat Enable.
For all that Cracksman has a big fan base, it is his Champion Stakes win on gutters that stands out as his sole outstanding performance. We have seen plenty of times that wide margin winners do not repeat the performance you might expect when returned to a sound surface.
I pretty much ruled Cracksman out from the two ante-post bets I had placed on him after the effort in beating Salouen. The Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot supported my notion and he did not run in King George QE II.
Cracksman will indeed get credit if he wins the Arc but it’s not a question of “Getting the credit he deserves” for he simply hasn’t done enough yet to be deserving. He was beaten in two Derbies last season and then had his day in the Champion Stakes. He needs more performances like that one to prove he deserves an Arc win. He’s just not there yet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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