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“James Doyle, speaking on Luck On Sunday this morning, doesn’t believe that the ground will be an issue.”
And maybe he’s right – Adayar is certainly the best horse in the race on paper.
All I will caution is that in 40 years I can hardly ever remember a trainer or jockey saying beforehand their big-race horse won’t handle the prevailing conditions.
You can’t train or ride an Arc winner if your horse is withdrawn, you’re got to be in it to win it and if you don’t buy a ticket you can’t win a prize.
It’s the Racing way – bullish beforehand, but with excuses lined up for if you get beat.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Had Hurricane Lane not run in the Leger he would have ticked every box for me, won on heavy as a two yr old and very soft when he won over C&D in the Grand Prix and uncomplicated with regards to tactics – but this is his 7th run of the season and whilst connections are saying how good he is looking and acting at home sometimes that can be misleading.
I still can’t get it out of my head when he was walking back into the winners enclosure at Doncaster how tired he looked (head carriage very low like he had given everything he had) and before he even got fully into the enclosure Appleby himself rushed over to him with a bucket of water….it is an image that stuck with me and had/has me thinking that you may just have reached the bottom of him for this season.
I’d like to see HL win it and become the first St. Leger winner to do so and put that hoodoo to bed. It’s usually a strongly run race so on heavy ground stamina will come into play but it is a very strong looking field.
Reason was because it was a prep.
Had she lost the Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks or Yorkshire Oaks or ran below form in those races you’d have a point. It was a training in public exercise to take a look at the course and get a run in before the main target. If they really wanted to win they would have set the pacemaker on earlier but hence it was a prep so just wanted an easy time of things. We will see Snowfall open up a can of whoop arse tomorrow.Snowfall lost the Prix Vermaille, Nathan; a Group 1 race which has equal billing with the Irish or Yorkshire Oaks. Although you may or may not be right about her being not 100% fit, the reason for not being fit is only conjecture. Started 1/5 fav so if fitness then doubt the fitness noticeable paddock-side (not significant). Wasn’t truly run but not slow either. On the same day Bubble Gift managed to win the Prix Neil from a similar position despite the race being run slower than the Vermaille. Snowfall should’ve won that race.
Snowfall has yet to prove herself in open company too. Although she’s won those three fillies races with plenty in hand it’s also true to say she has beaten nothing of the quality her three main rivals have.
There’s also a slight question about the going / stamina. Given pedigree must be a doubt she’d stay any further than this 12f and this will be a test of stamina at the trip. Going at Epsom wasn’t anywhere near what she’ll get today. Every one of the times (not just hers) put up on Epsom Oaks day were less than 7 seconds slower than standard – pretty much good-soft. Nearer 10 seconds slow expected today. Although clearly impressive on good-soft so there’s obviously a fair chance of acting on very soft. However, Snowfall’s sire Deep Impact loved firm ground, dam Best In The World only ran on similar going once and disappointed badly, Close relative the consistent (Arc winner) Found was arguably not at her best on it either. it’s appeared to me speed is at least as important in the way Snowfall wins as stamina. Amazing turn of foot at Epsom. Unless the pace is slow today it’ll be all about stamina. For me, racing is never about having definite opinions about whether a horse will be effective in conditions, just that any doubts need to be represented in the odds am willing to take. In my opinion Snowfall has a better chance than Tarnawa of acting in conditions (distance, likely pace and going combined) but less chance of doing so than eg the Godolphin pair.
Value Is EverythingLAY Tarnawa,
BACK Hurricane Lane and Mojo Star, half bets on Alenquer and Broome.Value Is EverythingI’ve backed Snowfall.
Understand why many want to take her on but she’s been my idea of the winner since the Oaks and you should never give up on a horse after one below par run.
The weight allowance on this ground could be massive and I want to see a positive ride from Ryan here.
This looks such a good race
Don’t really care if I back the winner just want to see a big performance
I want to see a 130+ top class winner
Well wasn’t expecting that
The look of absolute shock on the jockeys face sums it up
Little bit gutted tarnawa got beaten by one of the rags
Think she will definitely win the breeders cup turf if they go there
Snowfall and adayar didnt stay on the bottomless ground
Crawled on slow ground, i never understand why the jockeys do this, it almost always ends in this type of result
Oh Ian
Spot on with the Alderflug connection, I chose the wrong one there.
I hope you had a late change of mind and got on that
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Barely raceable ground brings the two Adlerflugs – Torquato Tasso (100/1) and Alenquer – into it
Good call.
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