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I’m joining you with an ew on Bubble Gift TTC in the hopes that Broome can tow him along at the start and he can keep up with the pace. Also got a little ew double with him and his half sister Bubble Smart in the Cadran.
Good thing is that they will be racing on fresh ground so it won’t be as bad as what they are racing on today – just out of interest does anybody else think that Love (who made all at Royal Ascot) will be used more as a bit of a sacrifice lamb to ensure that the pace is fast enough for Snowfall?
Softest ground Chrono Genesis has run on is yielding so jury out on how she will handle proper French soft and it will need to improve her quite a bit because she wasn’t able to beat 10F specialist Mishriff over 12F in Dubai. Alenquer is as solid an each way chance as there is as he is proven on heavy ground and his price is still too big – however, he will need a much more tactically aware ride than the one he was given in the Grand Prix.
Still hoping Adayar will win this to complete the Derby/KG/Arc treble and a wide draw not as much of an issue on soft ground, which I also don’t think will be an issue either. Just hope he settles a bit better than he did in the early stages of the KG as he will need to conserve every bit of energy for this.
Would expect both the boys in blue to be sitting pretty handy if it is a sensible pace and I can envisage some of the hold up horses find trouble in running and maybe finding it hard to peg back the leaders assuming that they don’t go hard from the start.
Just hope everyone brings their ‘A’ game so their are no excuses and we get a clean race.
“Good thing is that they will be racing on fresh ground so it won’t be as bad as what they are racing on today.”
20mm+ rain expected overnight and tomorrow so will be worse.
Still ground that hasn’t been raced on for awhile so it will take additional rain much better than ground that has already been churned up by having a full days racing on it – yes it will be testing but chances are the horses will get through it a little easier because it is fresher ground.
Its a shame we get the Arc and Ascot Champions Day basically run on national hunt ground. I can see a bit of a turnup tomorrow.
Tarnawa will need luck in running as she always does, can see her being the moral winner/unlucky in running. Adayar’s the best Derby winner since Golden Horn for me and I hope he emulates him but I’d be worried he got beat in both his Derby trials on bad ground and has impressed since on better, could be coincidental but could not. Hurricane Lane’s had a long old season. Not convinced Snowfall has beaten anything on merit of a Group 1 standard. From what little I know of Japanese racing a lot of theirs is basically run on tarmac its so firm so this will be very different for Chrono Genesis.
I too will take a flyer on Bubble Gift ew as you can easily excuse him being beaten so far by Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris as that was a nonsense of a race and he was far too far back. He’s won a key trial after a break and I can see him running a big one. Nathaniel’s progeny generally relish the mud and I’m a big Gerald Mosse fan. I also like the angle of returning horses to the race – Waldgeist and Sottsass ticked those boxes recently and on that basis I’ll also back Raabihah after her good effort last year.
Almost exactly the post I would have written if I had got round to it TheTinMan! Backed Raabihah a while ago and did Bubble Gift today when I saw he’d gone out to 100/1. He has got to be better value than many for a place though judging from his elder sister’s run today, they might have to go round twice for him to actually win it!
On form (ratings) I don’t think there’s much between Adayar, Tarnawa, Hurricane Lane and Snowfall… With all having positives and negatives. Negatives are:
Alaydar has had a minor setback and missed his prep.
Hurricane Lane may have had a hard race in the Leger and on jockey bookings is second string.
Snowfall below form for no apparent reason last time out. Hasn’t yet proved herself in open company.
Tarnawa acts on “heavy”, but was last year’s Arc day really on heavy?… Appears to have a pointed action…And if acting on very soft ground at 1m2f, does she stay 1m4f on it? Won an excellent Breeders Cup on firm and – to me – has seemed suited by a test of speed at the longer trip. Not surprising the other three have been backed against her in the last few days.
Seems a lot more negatives for Tarnawa and not surprising the others have been backed in recent days.
Best bet is probably to lay Tarnawa.Value Is EverythingSnowfall showed in the oaks she handles soft going. I think she will relish it. I can see her price tumbling. The lads sound very confident. As a few have said it could be an outsider goes close due to the ground. Even harder to predict now.
Think you may be right mickey, Snowfall turning blue on oddschecker. Wouldnt surprise me if she ends up favourite.
And winning
Snowfall below form for no apparent reason last time out
Reason was because it was a prep.
Had she lost the Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks or Yorkshire Oaks or ran below form in those races you’d have a point. It was a training in public exercise to take a look at the course and get a run in before the main target. If they really wanted to win they would have set the pacemaker on earlier but hence it was a prep so just wanted an easy time of things. We will see Snowfall open up a can of whoop arse tomorrow.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I have rarely posted here but Snowfalls last race wasn’t a prep as you may say. They were genuinely very very disappointed with the run. It will be a long time before AOB has any good 2yo so this is the last chance at a crack at the Arc for a few years with any likely contenders. There is a lot going on at Ballydoyle and it isn’t good, they just don’t have the horses anymore until they sort out the breeding side of things. Just my tuppence worth on the subject. The Haggas horse is the best e/w value for many a year. 16/1 is still there, barely..Any way to bet on the PMU these days?
I’m sorry this idea snowfall was just running a prep last time is simply not true , she was beaten fair and square , she may well win tomorrow but I don’t see any value with her , I’m looking forward to what is hopefully a great race and it’s no secret I’m in Adayar,s camp
Depends what you mean by fair and square. Was positioned too far back off a slow gallop.
So Aidan O’brien had Snowfall rock hard fit with nothing left to work on for the Arc keeping her on the boil for the whole length of time.
Gosden always comes out and says his horses were only xx% fit because you want your stars finely tuned for the main race.
Yes the camp would have been disappointed because Snowfall should have carried that lot with one hoof tied behind her back.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
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