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It’s one of the two races seen as being a trial for the Gold Cup, it’s a three-mile chase, it’s at Newbury, and it’s this Saturday – it’s the Aon!
Here’s a list of the horses entered right now, and what I think about them.
What A Friend – *puts both thumbs up, adopts silly grin and talks in a high pitch voice* Friend! Horse Friend! Sir Alex Ferguson Friend! Lexus Friend! Jumping Imperial Commander Silly In The Totesport Bowl Friend! Two Grade Ones Friend! Probably The Third Best Chaser, With The Possible Exception Of Neptune Collenges, In Paul F’n Icholls’ Yard Friend! Ran A Bit Crap Last Time Out But A Bad Race Doesn’t Make A Bad Horse Friend! Carrying The Most Penalties But Undoubtedly Has The Class Friend! Would Much Rather Have An Each-Way Ante-Post Betting Slip In My Wallet Than Hype Of Dulcote Friend! My Pick For This Race Friend! Awh, Friend! (*)
Chief Dan George – A horse described by the I-Shouldn’t-Really-Fancy-Her-But-I-Do Tanya Stevenson as ‘A Spring horse’ who took the limelight in last year’s William Hill Trophy. In truth, he’s pretty much outclassed here – and just because the weather’s getting nicer and the days are getting longer, doesn’t mean it’s Spring just yet – and you think that his connections are using this race to get him in shape for the National…which is what you’d’ve said Niche Market’s and Tricky Trickster’s were doing last year. Still a no, though.
Riverside Theatre – Every race needs a favourite, and it looks if the horse owned by That Bloke Off The Yellow Pages advert is going to be this one’s. I can understand why he’s the favourite, having won here and done pretty well to come second – ahead of The King – in the King George, but whether it’s the price, whether it’s never having won over three miles or what, I don’t know…I wouldn’t necessarily put anyone off picking him, it’s just that I prefer another horse. Better Than Riverside Theatre Friend! (OK, I’ll stop that now).
Dance Island – The annoying thing about betting markets is that horses who don’t have big name trainers can be overlooked – unless you’re on them, of course. You can’t help but think that, were this horse, with his form, trained by a Nicholls, a Henderson or a Twiston-Davies, he’d be a shrewdies pick. However, balanced against that is the fact that he’s only ever won once, and you’d have to say this is his toughest challenge by far. Wouldn’t totally rule him out for a place, mind you.
Ogee – Basically, see above – except not quite as good, I think. Kinda surprised he’s not being put forward for the National – seems like that kind of horse. Third in the Feltham and the William Hill ain’t bad at all, but still – No.
Carronhills – This one is interesting, if only because he’s got that ‘I’m A Mysterious Irish Pointer’ thing going on. My understanding is that he could be one for the National, one day, and this will tell us a whole lot more about him. I have a suspicion he could place, but it’s only a suspicion. Tidy price, though, and I wouldn’t want to put anyone off an e/w bet. Could. Be. Interesting.
Fair Along – ‘Wait – isn’t that Fair Along, the hurdler? But he hasn’t run over fences for nearly three years! Nooooooooooo!’. And that, Ladies And Gentlemen, is why I don’t write ghost stories. Big fat nope time!
Mahogany Blaze – Aww, bless him. He’s nowhere near good enough as a two-miler, and I really don’t think three miles will make any difference. Sorry.
Noland – Another one to file under ‘Interesting’. Paul F’n Icholls has a very good record with horses coming back after a long absence (see also: Neptune Collenges), and here’s a horse who’s won a grade one, albeit over a two-and-a-half miles (and beating some proper three milers in the process). I’m not going to bet on him, but if you were to go e/w (depending on the price), I couldn’t blame you.
So, my pick for this race is…
What A Friend.
However, I couldn’t necessarily argue with you if you wanted to have an e/w bet on
Carronhills
NolandOr, indeed, you ignored my advice and lumped on Riverside Theatre. That last choice would, IMHO, be just a bit boring, though!
What do you think?
FLD
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So don't run, just like the others always do
Nice write up five, I gotta say I am a little dissappointed if not terribly suprised at the entries here and the race really does look to come down to the top two in the market.
What a friend *(he’s not my fkin friend) handles any likely ground and has shown decent form in the lexus and totesport but still just doesnt excite me. Offers the least question marks but giving 4 pounds away to the market leader.
Riverside theatre has looked like he needed the step up to 3 miles in previous runnings and in the king George saw it out well. Very economical at his fences but not always entirely fluent he travels well despite his jumping not because of it. Only seen once over 3 miles the form of which is yet to stand up to scrutiny behind long run, but looks open to improvement especially if respecting his obsticles. Course and ground form.
Of Interest, Noland has to overcome a 2 year absence from the track (excluding kitty litter) and a poor run LTO but but would be good enough to challenge for the win here if able to do so. Nicholls managed to massage Nipper back to winning ways recently but I think this is a tougher race than he can be expected to land. I wouldnt blame a win bet on the horse but unlike my learned colleague, I dont fancy the EW angle.
Not really a betting race at the prices but I get the feeling RIVERSIDE THEATRE will prove himself better than what a friend in time. At this stage the 4lb swing may prove decisive and gets the nod but as five mentioned earlier, its hardly exciting is it.
Totally disagree with the above posts.
I can’t find a more glorified woofer than What A Friend.
His win at Aintree last season has more holes than my mothers colander. Carruthers, a well placed and likeable sort, nothing special. Nacarat wasn’t the same horse we’ve seen this season, and Tom George was having a shocker last season.
He dogged it behind Denman in Hennessy last season and his head carriage is woeful.
How the hell did this horse win two Gr1s, oh he beat a still maturing Joncol on ground that was too quick for him, and Money Trix, the supposed great horse of Nicky Richards which we never see over here.Riverside Theatre, best fresh and RH?
This leaves it wide open for a skinner to win this imo.
Fair enough. Riverside has won 3 times fresh and four times not. He’s also won twice at Newbury from 3 starts and came second the other. If that’s enough to rule him best fresh and RH then so be it but he’s good enough for me.
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Riverside Theatre jumps for fun. Horse with a big future should take this in his stride.
Fair enough. Riverside has won 3 times fresh and four times not. He’s also won twice at Newbury from 3 starts and came second the other. If that’s enough to rule him best fresh and RH then so be it but he’s good enough for me.
3?
His wins have been after the following break:
Debut / 217 / 59 / 54 / 212 / 31 / 193Defeats
35 / 27/ 13 / 25 / 79 / 37 / 75His best runs in defeat were after 79 days – Late rattle in the Arkle and 75 days – 2nd to Long Run
He’s best fresh – NAP
I find this race quite tricky . WA Friend is really unfathomable. I recall he was hyped up as good value for the Gold Cup on the basis that he has grade 1 form and would do even better after a breathing op. Then he flopped in the Betfair Chase behind IC and this was blamed on the ground. Since then we have heard surprisingly little from the usually loquacious Mr Nicholls. I think the way to play WAF might be to short him for the win here and go long for the Gold Cup. I reckon if he reaches his theoretical potential and shows it in this race he could come in to say 15-1 for the Gold Cup.
I think What A Friend will win this race and will then go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in MArch. Definitely looks Paul NIcholls best chance of winning the gold Cup this year.
WAF seems a bit of a monkey to me, sticks his head up and i wouldnt back him myself. I would think RT will win this fairly comfortably. I will also probably have fair along e/w to run second as well, hasnt run over fences for 3 years is a plus to me because he seems to get bored and the switch back to fences could be what he needs
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He’s about 30lbs short of Gold Cup class I can just imagine Ruby and Sam or AP clambering to ask if they can get off Kauto and Denman to ride What A Friend.
If ratings are anything to go by Riverside Theatre 165 should be giving weight to What A Friend 159 but the way it works out What A Friend has to give him 4lbs so he’s 10lbs wrong.
I suppose it depends on whether you believe his second to Long Run in the King George is better form than What A Friend’s defeat of Money Trix in the Lexus.
Money Trix is certainly not Gold Cup class but Long Run certainly seems to be.
It’s not often I pay any attention to ratings but that 10lbs is a lot to ignore and surely cant be that far off the mark?
Paul Nicholls has a tremendous record in this race
My other reason for favouring What A Friend is that I believe Riverside Theatre does not truly stay 3 miles.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
He’s about 30lbs short of Gold Cup class I can just imagine Ruby and Sam or AP clambering to ask if they can get off Kauto and Denman to ride What A Friend.
If ratings are anything to go by Riverside Theatre 165 should be giving weight to What A Friend 159 but the way it works out What A Friend has to give him 4lbs so he’s 10lbs wrong.
I suppose it depends on whether you believe his second to Long Run in the King George is better form than What A Friend’s defeat of Money Trix in the Lexus.
Money Trix is certainly not Gold Cup class but Long Run certainly seems to be.
It’s not often I pay any attention to ratings but that 10lbs is a lot to ignore and surely cant be that far off the mark?
Ratings are only one mans opinion.
One mans 164 could be anothers 146.
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Won’t get an argument from me. let’s face it anyone who thinks Dream Ahead should be rated Frankel’s equal or Grand Crus has done enough to be rated within 2lbs of Big Bucks who won so many good races his owner has to keep the trophies in the attic has got to be on drugs
Looks a very trappy contest. I like Riverside Theatre but I’d happily let him run at that price. I don’t know how anyone could trust What A Friend. He looks a right madra to me.
I find it a bit strange that Riverside is running in this one. His main target appears to be the Ryanair but this is his second consecutive 3 mile race. However, he did well at Kempton and I imagine if he wins this comfortably he might be switched to the Gold Cup. He might be worth a punt for the GC at long odds on Betfair.
On the other hand perhaps 3 miles elsewhere is the equivalent of 2.5 miles at Cheltenham.
It’s hard to bet in this race. It seems like it will obviously come from the two headed in the market. I personally would price What a Friend at Evens and Riverside Theatre at 6/4.
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