Anybody interested in the 6:00 Wolverhampton?

[muchofmuchness]

I’ve had a good look at this competitive looking class 2 handicap over 1m 1f 113y

There is a fair bit of potential pace on here, Thunderstruck is a confirmed front runner but will have to use up a bit of early speed to tack across from his wide draw. He looks high enough in the weights at present and may have to battle to keep his front running role.

Tartan Gunna and Stand Guard can lead and are well drawn to do so, there is potential for a battle up front between these three. Stand Guard does not appeal, got a soft lead last time out in a lower class race now back up in class and 4ibs higher, 2ibs higher than his best winning form.

Tartan Gunna is of interest based on recent turf runs but as a rule turf and all weather form do not mix, he will need to run up to his very best off a mark of 91 to win this after a break despite a drop in class.

This may set up the race for horses that like to be held up such as Orchard Supreme and Baylini. Both are drawn low so can drop in behind the leaders and take advantage if the pace is suicidal.

Baylini would be of more interest if this were Lingfield, he may find himself stuck behind a wall of horses on the last tight bend or be forced to go wide, always a kiss of death here, see his last run at Wolverhampton.

Orchard Supreme has been well backed this morning, he looks be be coming to form over his last two runs, now 11ibs lower than his last win he looks very well handicapped. Much like Baylini he will need the gaps to appear and may come home with a "wet sail" if the leaders tire in the later stages.

My selection is Winter Fever. Won at Wolverhampton over a furlong shorter then upped in class and ran well a very competitive race at Lingfield upped 4ibs behind Baylini, then another good run in a similar class race where he got involved in a burn up in a fast run race last time out at Lingfield.

1ib lower, dropped in class and over slightly shorter than his last two runs he has to have a great chance. He can race up just behind the pace and as long as he does not get involved at the front can take advantage of a prominent position entering the final bend and have first run on the horses held up at the back.

[rich1985]

I have backed Orchard Supreme, but am interested in WF on the basis of his shock 33/1 win here few months ago, could be a bit of a dark horse again. Interesting and nice little race for a Thursday night at Wolverhampton.

[muchofmuchness]

Rich, good luck with Orchard Supreme, he is one that has a big chance if getting the breaks, especially if the leaders go off to fast, and he is being backed down to second favourite now, may even be favourite by the off.

I’ve backed Winter Fever @ 7/1 I feel that he is still lightly raced and unexposed so open to improvement, I just hope he does not go too fast with the pace leaders and sits behind them ready to pounce, if so he could be hard to beat.

As you say a good race in prospect.

[muchofmuchness]

Nice One Rich

[rich1985]

Thanks mate, backed WF too, good placed effort. Keep up the very detailed analysis, will pay off sooner or later.

[muchofmuchness]

Cheers Rich, you made the right choice backing the two against the field, wish I had now hope you got a good price.

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