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Antepost Betting

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  • #466
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    When betting antepost what rules do you use? A friend of mine never backs e/w antepost but surely if the horse is consistent and is definitely running in the race bar injury there can be benefits to e/w antepost betting? This is a question in general but also because I am looking at some of the novice races at Cheltenham. I’m looking at Gungadu and According To John for the Sun Alliance Chase and was debating whether to back them win or each way (if at all).

    #31734
    Shadow Leader
    Member
    • Total Posts 763

    I’ll be ridiculed for this (each way betting is for fannies, yada yada…) but I’ll always go for an each way ante post punt at large odds.  It can pay off too!

    #31735
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Surely the value in antepost is getting the juicy win price. I think you are better off having double on the win instead of each way and laying off on the exchanges to cover your stake.

    #31736
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    DJ’s suggestion about laying bets off is probably the best one. I always find it difficult knowing whether to bet e/way. Most serious backers bet win only but I knew one of them who had 18 consecutive selections finish 2nd or 3rd ( most of them at decent prices – 6/1 plus ) and then went on a bad run with his selections – he never recovered from it as far as I know. If he had backed e/way then he’d have made a decent profit with his 18 selections. However this was before the exchanges came along.

    I think that it is best to treat each bet on it’s merits and not automatically bet win only or each way only. As far as ante post goes then maybe it’s best to think about how many runners are likely to participate. If it’s going to be a big field then I’d bet win only but if it is likely that there may only be 8-10 runners or less than 8 then maybe e/way is preferable.  <br>

    (Edited by SwallowCottage at 11:55 am on Nov. 20, 2006)

    #31737
    LUKE
    Member
    • Total Posts 271

    I would be inclined to back win only at this stage unless the price was over 20/1.I remember telling someone on another forum that Equs Maximus was a chronic each way bet for the Bumper at 4 or 5/1.The reply was that it was an insurance policy.Horse was available at around 10s on the day and was unplaced.

    #31738
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Most of my antepost bets will be between 16/1 -50/1. I tend to do a mixture but don’t really know whether this is the best policy or not. I kind of try to go for consistent horses e/w antepost (Monets Garden)

    #31739
    yeatsyeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2925

    Each way ante-post is a mugs bet unless it’s non runner no bet;)

    #31740
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    I rarely bet ante-post these days as the price advantage is usually dissipated by horses not making it to the race, and betting them each way justs adds to the agony when you are on a nonrunner. Nice if you enjoy the glow of a big-priced winner, but still needs weighing against any nonrunner to establish the true price you are betting at.<br>As an example, Innox looks tempting for the Hennessy at a current 25/1, but with doubts about his participation.<br> If he does run, AP will ride and he will halve in price, but would still, imo, represent much less of a gamble at the new price rather than the old, and any ante-post place bet would just add to the gamble.

    #31741
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Innox does look juicy Reet Hard I agree. I was having a think about that one too. (I’m trying to gather ideas on the Hennessey:cool:  )

    #31742
    Mug Punter
    Member
    • Total Posts 27

    What do your own records tell you about ante post betting? Personally, I wouldn’t go there win or ew. If I told you that I might be able to supply a service at a certain point in the future at a low price. But the catch was that I would need the money up front, and you would lose all of it, whether I supplied the service or not. Would you go for it? How do you calculate the odds to estimate the uncertainty of a horse running weeks and months in advance?

    #31743
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    If the horse is being aimed at a particular race and you know the horse will be much shorter on the day then I believe the benefits outweight the risk of the horse getting injured. My records tell me I am +20% profit  from Antepost betting (low strike rate but big price winners)/

    #31744
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Each-way antepost can be massive value at the five-day stage. If there are only 18 declared on Tuesday for something like the Victor Chandler Chase you know its odds-on to cut up to 15 or fewer runners but you will still get paid first four. The Betfair chase is a good recent example – six runners but each-way 1,2,3 antepost. Last year I went for a massive touch in the Hennessy on All In The Stars – each-way at 100-1. SP of 14s and finished fifth – beaten by just over a length for fourth after making two or three life-threatening jumping errors!

    #31745
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Wouldn’t liked to have been in your household that night Mounty:o

    #31746
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Fortunately I have several cats to kick so they only get one or two each.

    #31747
    Mug Punter
    Member
    • Total Posts 27

    Quote: from Mounty on 7:18 am on Nov. 23, 2006[br]Fortunately I have several cats to kick so they only get one or two each.

    Mounty

    Hang on a minute, it’s the Hennessy this Saturday. Have you had any ante post bets this year? Just worried about the cats…….

    (Edited by Mug Punter at 7:47 pm on Nov. 23, 2006)

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