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All my ante-post book reads:
Arkle:
Champagne Fever 5/1 PP,
Valdez 25/1 PPChampion Hurdle:
The New One 14/1 WH,
My Tent Or Yours 8/1 (L),
Our Conor 10/1 (C)National Hunt Chase:
Mendip Express 10/1 (B365)
Queen Mother Champion Chase:
Simonsig 5/1 (NRFB VC),
Cue Card 161 (NRFB VC)Ryanair Chase:
Cue Card 4/1 (NRNB B365),
Dynaste 7/1 (NRNB B365)World Hurdle:
Solwhit 7/1 (PP)
,
More Of That 10/1 (B365),
Annie Power 3/1 (NRNB L)Byrne Group Plate:
Tap Night 25/1 (PP)
Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs 81 (WH)
,
Boston Bob 25/1 (WH),
Rocky Creek 25/1 (NRNB B365),
Captain Chris 25/1 (Skybet NRNB)Value Is Everything09/11/13 GRANDOUET @ 9/1 ARKLE
10/11/13 OSCAR WHISKY @ 14/1 ARKLE
10/11/13 SILVINIACO CONTI @ 8/1 GOLD CUP
17/11/13 SIRE DE GRUGY @ 16/1 CHAMPION CHASE17/11/13
SIRE DE GRUGY @ 16/1 CHAMPION CHASE
GRANDOUET @ 12/1 ARKLE
SILVINIACO CONTI @ 8/1 GOLD CUPEW TRIXIE
18/01/14 CAPTAIN CONAN @ 14/1 RYANAIR CHASE
27/01/14 BIG BUCKS @ 5/2 WORLD HURDLELong time admirer, first time poster.
€50 single on Big Bucks for the World Hurdle @ 9/4 (was in a double with Sprinter Sacre)
€10 e/w double on Grandouet @ 14/1 (Arkle) and Smad Place @ 7/1 (RSA)
€15 e/w on First Lieuntenant @ 8/1 and €40 win on First Lieutenant @ 4/1 (Ryanair)
€10 e/w on The Liquidator @ 25/1 for the Pertemps
Added 4 with the NRNB concession:-
REWARDS4RACING
The Romford Pele 16/1
Similarly to the graded novice races you could make a case for plenty but this horse has a little bit of course form and hopefully the stable is finding some form at the right time.
PERTEMPS
Tullyesker Hill 20/1
Major advance last time. Will almost certainly need to win today to get in.
COUNTY
Gilgamboa 10/1
Lovely big chasing type who did me a favour last time. Travels and jumps so you would think this sort of race would suit. As with all these JP handicappers the worry for me is McCoy. Hopefully, the horses might have 7-10lbs in hand to negate his ‘assistance’.
Empire Of Dirt 25/1
This is the horse I most want to see. Has also got entries in both the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe but I think he is crying out for a further drop in trip as he is quite free and has plenty of speed. Better ground should also be a plus.
Thank heavens for the power of NRNB. Tullyesker Hill ran no race at the weekend and Empire Of Dirt ran well below my expectations. Both are now very unlikely runners.
Added:-
KIM MUIR
Indian Castle 10/1
Added a little earlier but forgot to include on here. Horse appeared to win with a little bit in hand last time. McCain has some ‘previous’ in this race and given the market support it will be very disappointing if he takes up one of his other entries.
TRIUMPH
Activial 12/1
Not sure what Fehily saw that nobody else could see. The worry that he is a jumps bred appears nonsense as he would be more likely to meet the supposedly speedier flat-breds at Aintree rather than Cheltenham. Has a little bit to find with Calipto but that horse might well be the one they all have to beat.
BUMPER
El Namoose 20/1
Impressive at Musselburgh and if Ferguson is to win a Festival race you would think this represents his best chance.
Very mediocre year. Great Try and Bringithomeminty were impressive recent winners but the former almost certainly beat nothing and for some reason Henderson seems to detest the race.
PERTEMPS
Josies Orders & Upswing 16/1 NRNB
Hopefully, they can both get in. Josies Orders has improved considerably for the headgear and step up in trip while Upswing has a bit of course form and it wouldn’t surprise me if he is a little better than the bare form of his last win. McCoy is quite exceptional at making things look harder than they should be.
FRED WINTER
A short history but every year there seems to more gambles in this race than any other.
Aurore D’Estruval 16/1 NRNB
Travels and jumps like a very useful prospect. Bigger field and greater test of stamina should be a plus.
Powder Hound 20/1 NRNB
Three pretty average runs so far but the horse is crying out for quicker ground.
My ante post is a series of accies, none of which have survived TTT, SS and CC withdrawals
Just checked there, the most painful is certainly;
10 ew accie
Vautour supreme novices 16/1
Kings palace 5/1
Mossy joe 12/1
The tullow tank Neptune 14/1
new rule for next year: no ante post until festival week -3
The way things are going it won’t be a surprise if some of mine are non-runners before I get the chance to put them up.
Hugely frustrating to lose both Mossey Joe and Ted Veale. There was always a possibility with Mossey Joe but you really cannot legislate for crackpot decisions from trainers.
Added:-
Rainbow Peak
MARTIN PIPE
33/1 NRNB
CORAL CUP
25/1 NRNB
Hugely impressive at Doncaster. Likely to leave his last run well behind given a strong pace and longer trip.
FRED WINTER
Sea Beat 16/1 NRNB
Represents the Powder Hound form and has slightly more chance of getting in. Stable has won the race before and seemingly well fancied.
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
Shotgun Paddy 7/1 NRNB
Increasingly worried about Foxrock’s jumping and jockey booking. This one looks most likely to take advantage of the flaws.
WORLD HURDLE
More Of That 10/1 NRNB
Very difficult race. Stamina question mark but without doubt the potential improver. Big plus AP has chosen the other one.
RSA
Just A Par 33/1 NRNB
Another minefield. At the start of the season would have had him high on the list of possible winners. The wheels came off and he has now drifted out to a reasonable price. Operated on since last run and would have a better chance if the ground dried out.
COUNTY
Never Enough Time 16/1 NRNB
Might be expected to go Martin Pipe with Ger Fox on board but he is totally unproven over the longer trip and this would seem the more sensible option. Having said that this is also the logical option for Gilgamboa and he has recently been cut for the Supreme.
Price Total Stake Type
Irving 5 £20 WIN
Champ Fever 6 £20 WIN
Rock on Ruby 15 £10 EW
The New One 4 £25 WIN
MTOY 5.5 £25 WIN
Cockney Sparrow 7 £30 EW
Red Sherlock 6 £25 WIN
Faugheen 5 £10 WIN
Many Clouds 17 £20 EW
Benefficient 10 £10 WIN
Felix Yonger 13 £20 EW
Annie Power 5 £50 WIN
Annie Power 6 £50 WIN
Captain Cutter 10 £5 WIN
Silv Conti 4.5 £20 WIN
Last Install 51 £16 EW
Bobs Worth 5 £15 WINVautour & SDG 16 £10 WIN
In race order
Sire De Grugy ( my nap of the meeting )
I took a punt in the belief that Sprinter Sacre would be withdrawn from the Champion Chase line-up.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
All my ante-post book reads:
Arkle:
Champagne Fever 5/1 PP,
Valdez 25/1 PPChampion Hurdle:
The New One 14/1 WH,
My Tent Or Yours 8/1 (L),
Our Conor 10/1 (C)
LAY My Tent Or Yours 4.8/1
LAY Our Conor 4.7/1
(Lays to get back half of over all Champion stake)National Hunt Chase:
Mendip Express 10/1 (B365)
Shotgun Paddy 8/1 (L)
Shutthefrontdoor 14/1 (L)Queen Mother Champion Chase:
Simonsig 5/1 (NRFB VC) (will be money back)
Cue Card 161 (NRFB VC) (will be money back)
Sire De Grugy 9/4 (NRNB FD)
Saver: Captain Conan 7/1 (C)RSA Chase:
Smad Place 7/1 (NRNB PP)
Ryanair Chase:
Cue Card 4/1 (NRNB B365) (money back)
Dynaste 7/1 (NRNB B365)World Hurdle:
Solwhit 7/1 (PP)
,
More Of That 10/1 (B365),
Saver: Annie Power 3/1 (NRNB L)Byrne Group Plate:
Tap Night 25/1 (PP)
JLT Novice Chase
Felix Yonger 7/1 (Sky)
Vukovar 10/1 and 9/1 (Corals and Sky)Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs 81 (WH)
,
Boston Bob 25/1 (WH)
Rocky Creek 25/1 (NRNB B365)
Captain Chris 25/1 (Skybet NRNB)Added those in itallics
Value Is EverythingMine is Rectangular in size, Black in colour, and full of horses who will either –
(a) Not run in the races I have backed them for, or:
(b) Not win their races.Added:-
FESTIVAL BUMPER
Our Kaempfer 33/1 NRNB
Presumably has been put away for this. Stepped up markedly on debut with some decent course form. Drying ground should help and trainer who does well in bumpers quite hopeful. No surprise if he improves again.
SUPREME
Gilgamboa 16/1 NRNB
No great logic here. This is the wrong race but don’t want him making a show here having backed him for the County. Previously, shown himself to be a good traveller and jumper. Has done very well without McCoy so change of jockey a big concern.
NEPTUNE
Ballyalton 16/1 NRNB
Another likely McCoy ride. Safe to ignore last run and drying ground a big plus.
FESTIVAL HANDICAP CHASE
Green Flag 16/1 NRNB
With Shutthefrontdoor heading off into the unknown (and likely a more difficult option) this horse represents another novice in a handicap. Not the ideal prep but the Milan/Un Desperado cross shouts better ground.
All my ante-post book reads:
Supreme Hurdle:
Wicklow Brave 7/1 (NRNB C) 7.8/1 betfair
Current best price (CBP) 7/1
Arkle:
Champagne Fever 5/1 (PP),
CBP 100/30
Valdez 25/1 (PP) CBP 9/1Champion Hurdle:
The New One 14/1 WH,
CBP 11/4
My Tent Or Yours 8/1 L,CBP 5/1
Our Conor 10/1 CCBP 5/1
LAY My Tent Or Yours 4.8/1
LAY Our Conor 4.7/1
(Lays to get back half of over all Champion stake)National Hunt Chase:
Mendip Express 10/1 (B365)
Shotgun Paddy 8/1 (L)CBP 8/1
Shutthefrontdoor 14/1 (L)CBP 6/1
Queen Mother Champion Chase:
Simonsig 5/1 (NRFB VC) (will be money back)
Cue Card 161 (NRFB VC) (will be money back)
Sire De Grugy 9/4 (NRNB FD)CBP 9/4
Saver: Captain Conan 7/1 (C)CBP 5/1
RSA Chase:
Smad Place 7/1 (NRNB PP)
CBP 7/1
Le Bec 16/1 (NRNB PP)CBP 16/1
Ryanair Chase:
Cue Card 4/1 (NRNB B365) (money back)
Dynaste 7/1 (NRNB B365)CBP 9/2
Boston Bob 20/1 (NRNB B365)CBP 16/1
World Hurdle:
Solwhit 7/1 (PP)
,
More Of That 10/1 (B365),CBP 10/1
Saver: Annie Power 3/1 (NRNB L)CBP 15/8
Byrne Group Plate:
Tap Night 25/1 (PP)
CBP 10/1
JLT Novice Chase
Felix Yonger 7/1 (Sky)
CBP 5/1
Vukovar 10/1 and 9/1 (Corals and Sky)CBP 8/1
Gold Cup:
Sir Des Champs 81 (WH)
,
Boston Bob 25/1 (WH)CBP 33/1 (doubtful)
Rocky Creek 25/1 (NRNB B365)CBP 25/1
Captain Chris 25/1 (Skybet NRNB)CBP 16/1
Added Wicklow Brave (Supreme), Le Bec (RSA) and Boston Bob (Ryanair).
Value Is EverythingI tend to go through in race order but invariably don’t make it past day one unless I have a really strong fancy on the later days – I don’t this year, with the possible exception of Harbour Court in the Foxhunter.
I’m clearly very happy with my position in the Supreme although may take advantage of the PP cash back offer and cover £50 with Wicklow Brave.
Unhappy with the Arkle though as now I just can’t get away from Trifolium but can’t back another.
Not sure the ground is going to suit Foxrock in the NH either.
I’ve used a total return / by average odds approach method where applicable.
Supreme
Irving £50 win @ 12/1
Vautour £25 win @ 12/1
Dubai Prince £10 win @ 25/1Arkle
Felix Yonger £25 win @ 10/1
Mozoltov £10 win @ 33/1
Dodging Bullets @ £40 win @ 8/1
Champagne Fever £10 win @ 11/2H’cap Chase
Hadrians’s Approach £20 win @ 14/1
Champion Hurdle
My Tent Or Yours £60 win @ 7/1 (inc 8/1 offer to win both the Xmas Hurdle and this)
Hurricane Fly £40 win @ 5/1David Nicholson
Quevega £80 win @ 10/11
NH Chase
Mendip Express £25 win @ 8/1
Foxrock £40 win @ 13/2Lee
Almost certainly the last before any day of race additions:-
GRAND ANNUAL
Anay Turge 20/1 NRNB
Plenty of course form, probably still progressive and would be a few points shorter in a ‘bigger’ yard.
Dare Me 25/1 NRNB
Has never really fulfilled initial promise but looked a different horse at Warwick last time and hopefully he can build on that.
MARTIN PIPE
Royal Regatta 25/1 NRNB
Looked very classy before getting bogged down in the mud. As with Ballyalton best to put a line through that race. Hopefully, he hasn’t got himself too well handicapped.
Added
Ryanair: Boston Bob @ 12/1
Ch Hurdle: Melodic Rendezvous @ 20/1
Supreme Novices: Josses Hill @ 16/1
treble
NH Chase: Foxrock @ 4/1
x country: Big Shu @ 4/1
Fox hunters Harbour Court @ 4/1EW Accumulator £1 million potential payout
Supreme novices: Josses Hill @ 16/1
Ch Hurdle: Melodic rendezvous @ 20/1
Arkle: Valdez @ 8/1
NH Chase: Foxrock @ 4/1
Foxhunters: Harbour Court @ 4/1
X Country: Big Shu @ 4/1
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