Ante-Post Chelt 2014- What Does Your Book Look Like?

[stilvi]

SUPREME

West Wizard 20/1
The Liquidator 14/1
Diamond King 33/1

West Wizard looked very slow on debut and seems unlikely to show let alone be good enough. Diamond King looks too slow and appears likely to step up in trip. The Liquidator needs to run well today but should be better suited to both a stiffer track and better ground.

ARKLE

Valdez 25/1

Pretty hopeful. If King can find a suitable prep race should go there with a decent chance. Always a chance Thornton can mess up but hasn’t done much wrong on this horse. Hopefully, Defy Logic will ruin Champagne Fever’s chance and set the race up nicely.

CHAMPION HURDLE

Our Conor 8/1
The New One 5/1

Would have fancied Our Conor strongly had Cooper maintained the partnership. To my eyes didn’t look the same horse on his return and will do well to place. The New One has a decent chance but he has little in hand if anything and it may come down to the best ride on the day.

CROSS COUNTRY

Big Shu 7/1

Missed the 8’s but if he turns up in the same shape as last year he should win again.

NATIONAL HUNT

Mendip Express 10/1

Shapes as if he will stay and has a touch of class. Possibility he will go RSA in a weak year. No real reason to go the handicap route.

NEPTUNE

Diamond King 33/1
Racing Pulse 25/1
The Tullow Tank 12/1

Diamond King needs to improve markedly for the step up in trip. Racing Pulse remains promising but will surely go Albert Bartlett. I can see The Tullow Tank steaming up the hill but fear it will be in the Supreme.

RSA

Bright New Dawn 25/1

Given a dreadful ride last time. Hopefully, will be given another chance on better ground to show whether he can go three miles left-handed. I think he remains a class act.

JEWSON

Bright New Dawn 16/1

If he turns up this would now seems the most likely target.

PERTEMPS

Saphir Du Rheu 12/1

Favourite for both the Pertemps and Coral Cup and also quoted in a place for the World Hurdle. Very impressive last time but much will depend on what happens today.

RYANAIR

Benefficient 16/1

Looks to have a solid chance but will probably lose the assistance of Bryan Cooper if choosing this option over the Champion Chase.

TRIUMPH

Analifet 12/1

Trainer stated she was out for season but currently being quoted around 40/1 on Betfair.

ALBERT BARTLETT

Racing Pulse 25/1 & 33/1
Briar Hill 10/1

Racing Pulse definitely overpriced on what he has achieved so far and should be open to further improvement. Could do with a decent jockey. Briar Hill would have a chance in whatever race he targets – hopefully it is this one.

[Anonymous]

Supreme

£25 The Liquidator e/w (25/1)
£13 West Wizard e/w (16/1)

Neptune

£30 Regal Encore e/w (25/1)

Then also have a bunch of milti bets that require either Bobs Worth or Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre that return around £1000. Also have some including MTOY and TNO in the Champion Hurdle.

[stilvi]

Well that’s The Liquidator completing a hat-trick of washouts for the Supreme. Woeful performance and just a panic ride from start to finish.

[thehorsesmouth]

SUPREME

Vautour 10/1

A little underwhelming today maybe but Mr Fiftyone is a good yardstick and he beat him a length less than The Tullow Tank did in the Royal Bond. I liked the way he battled back when he looked beaten and won going away in the finish. He doesn’t deserve to be any shorter than 10/1 for sure but I look at the potential opposition and nothing jumps out. The Liquidator was the one I feared most but he ran no sort of race today for whatever reason.

ARKLE

Defy Logic 20/1 nrfb

Very happy with this one. He was actually available at 25s in December but I had to be the early bird and took 20s last June. That run at Leopardstown was a hell of a performance. I’ll add either Champagne Fever or Felix Yonger whenever we know their targets or when NRNB comes in, most likely the latter will come first.

CHAMPION HURDLE

Annie Power 25/1 nrfb
Un De Sceaux 25/1

Have small money on both of these, happy with them. Hopefully Un De Sceaux will prove himself left handed tomorrow. It’s possible neither will run but both are big players if they turn up.

NEPTUNE

Faugheen 16/1, 12/1

I think Faugheen will romp home in whatever he runs in. He has so many gears that I hope it’s the Neptune. He wastes valuable energy over further and I think the he jumps better over the shorter trip too. Was good to see Josses Hill run so well today, he couln’t get near Faugheen in a bumper.

RSA

Ballycasey 25/1 nrfb

Happy with the price but he needs more experience. I’d like to see him get two more runs before Cheltenham but time is starting to run out. There has been no news on him lately either and you’d wonder if he’s had a setback.

JEWSON

Felix Yonger 14/1 & 12/1 nrfb, 8/1
Un Atout 16/1

Un Atout a loser already. Felix Yonger looking more and more likely to run in the Arkle but if he runs here I’m extremely happy with the prices I have.

RYANAIR

Marito 20/1
Cue Card 5/2 nrnb

Cue Card 5/2 nrnb is a fantastic price imo. Who knows where Marito will run but there’s been a bit of support for him for this and it looks his only option should he go to Cheltenham.

TRIUMPH

Analifet 12/1

Apparently out for the season, seems odd she’s been around 40/1 on Betfair

GOLD CUP

Sir Des Champs 12/1
First Lieutenant 12/1 nrnb

Sir Des Champs out. Think 12/1 is a good price about Mouse Morris’ horse.

[stones89]

Arkle

Hinterland 10/1 NRFB

Very much like the way he saw off Grandouet at Sandown in December, and think he will be thereabouts in March. Confirmed to be the target after that race by Paul Nicholls.

If Champagne Fever does step up in trip, as it looks increasingly likely, will surely go off a fair few points shorter.

Also like Defy Logic for this, if he turns up.

Champion Hurdle

Annie Power 10/1 NRFB

The markets suggest a World Hurdle crack is more likely, but with Rich Ricci saying today the reason she was kept over hurdles was for a go at this race, thought it was worth having an interest in. Will surely give the boys something to think about.

Champion Chase

Cue Card 3/1 NRNB

Looks like it’s not happening now. But was worth an interest in case SS missed out.

World Hurdle

Boston Bob E/W 16/1 NRFB

With so many question marks around others in the market, couldn’t ignore the price. WH looks confirmed to be the target, and would definitely rather Mullins kept AP out of this!

Gold Cup

Last Instalment E/W 50/1 NRNB

If he continues his novice form when he returns later in the month, a shot at the big one could be on the cards. No brainer really as will surely be at least half the price if Philip Fenton judges him in good enough form to have a go at Bobs Worth et al.

[stilvi]

Added

WORLD HURDLE

Saphir De Rheu 20/1

Has now bolted up in two competitive handicaps and in doing so has almost certainly ruled himself out of the Festival handicaps. With the uncertainty over those at the head of the market and his rapid progression he looks well worth a shot at the big one. Clearly he needs to brush up his jumping and show he can do it left-handed but for me his handicap form is superior to More Of That who is much shorter in the market and unproven at the trip.

[thehorsesmouth]

CHAMPION HURDLE

Annie Power 25/1 nrfb
Un De Sceaux 25/1

Have small money on both of these, happy with them. Hopefully Un De Sceaux will prove himself left handed tomorrow. It’s possible neither will run but both are big players if they turn up.

Added:

Un De Sceaux 16/1 nrnb

Looks like the Champion Hurdle is the aim after that impressive win at long odds on at Navan. Foildubh tried to go with him and finished a long, long way back, and while he’s not a Champion Hurdle horse he’s no mug. 16/1 nrnb very fair.

[stilvi]

Another vote for Un De Sceaux although I had to take 14/1. I think it made sense to make this my only each-way bet so far although I am not entirely sure this year’s renewal is as good as what people are making out and this horse might take a bit more pegging back than Rock On Ruby.

[seeyouthen]

Not much in way of a book this year as struggling to get a handle on the form

Arkle: Champagne Fever 7/1

Champion Hurdle: The New One 5/1

E/W Double CF & TNO

Supreme: Regal Encore 33/1 E/W (vibes not good from Honeyball and taken drift on exchanges)

Neptune: Diamond King 33/1 & 25/1 – both E/W

Gold Cup: Al Ferof 20/1 E/W

RSA: Bright New Dawn 25/1 E/W – (Didn’t think it stayed last time despite poor ride and more likely for the JLT i think)

Potential: Albert Bartlett – like Captain Cutter but now a bit short @ 10/1 for ante post just yet. Also looking at Carraig Mor but noises from AK that maybe year too soon.

Good luck with all selections!

[Shack1]

SUPREME – Vatour 12/1, Tullow Tank 14/1(NRFB)
ARKLE – Defy Logic 10/1, Champagne Fever 5/1
CHAMP HDL – Hurricane Fly 13/2, 6/1, 4/1, 7/2 (i have a sneaky feeling!!). Jezki 10/1
MARES – Quevega 5/4, EVS(NRFB)
NH CHASE – Foxrock 8/1

NEPTUNE – Oscar Rock 25/1, Faugheen 9/2, Red Sherlock 10/1
RSA – Corrin Wood 25/1, Morning Assembly 14/1
QUEEN MUM – Sprinter Sacre EVS
BUMPER – Black Hercules 20/1, 14/1, 8/1, Modus 16/1

JLT NVCS – Oscar Whisky 10/1
RYANAIR – Baily Green 20/1EW (NRNB)
WORLD HURDLE – Big Bucks 4/1,3/1(NRNB), Annie Power 5/1 NRNB

TRIUMPH – Plinth 20/1
BARTLETT – Clondaw Court 20/1 EW
GOLD CUP – Bobsworth 7/2, 3/1, 7/2, First Lieut 12/1 EW.
FOXHUNTERS – Mossey Joe 10/1,8/1, Salsify 7/1.
GRAND ANNUAL – Ted Veale 12/1

DOUBLES
Hurricane Fly 4/1 / Bobsworth 5/2 (W Hill)
Hurricane Fly 3/1 NRNB / Quevega 5/4 (B365)
Quevega 5/4 / Sprinter Sac 4/7 NRNB (B365)
Quevega EVS NRFB / Bobsworth 9/4 NRNB Bvictor
Big Bucks 4/1 / Bobsworth 7/2 (W Hill)

TREBLE
Vatour 10s / Faugheen 9/2 / Clondaw Court 20/1

[Jenno]

My anti-post book looks great, but to be honest I say that every year only to look back after the festival with many regrets and disappointments!!!!

To date I have the following

£50 win Kings Palace for the AB at 16s VC Bet
£50 win Faugheen for the Neptune at 14s VC Bet
£50 Win Cue Card for the Gold Cup at 25s VC Bet
and Cue card to win Betfair and GC at 66s with Hills
£50 win Ballycasey for the RSA at 25s with VC Bet
£50 win Al ferof for the Ryanair at 10s with VC
(VC have done well with me this year!!! most are NRFB)
£100win Rock on Ruby to win Arkle at 16s with Corals
£100ew First Leutenant in Gold Cup at 12s with 365 NRNB

Also backed a few that don’t look so good now (Morning Assembly, Rule The World, Apache Stronghold etc)

[Jenno]

Oh and I should have added that I have not even started on the Handicaps yet!!!!!!!

[stilvi]

Added:-

GOLD CUP

Bobs Worth 9/4
Last Instalment 40/1

Both NRNB. Always liked Last Instalment and needless to say thought he made a very pleasing reappearance. If he ‘bounces’ he almost certainly will not run but if the preparation continues to go well he will surely go to post considerably shorter than 40/1. On today’s evidence very surprised that some bookmakers have left him unchanged as outside of the front two he could easily be the one most likely to mount a serious challenge.

[thehorsesmouth]

Added:

RSA CHASE

Sizing Gold 20/1 nrfb

[stilvi]

Added:

TRIUMPH

Ivan Grozny 20/1

Pretty impressive yesterday after a decent debut. Running out of time for something to appear from left field. Might allow myself one more before they jump off but at the moment he looks as good as anything.

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Foxrock 10/1

This has always looked the logical target and confirmed by owner in today’s Post. I suppose there is a question mark about quicker ground but the trip should suit and he may well jump better for a decent amateur.

[stones89]

Added a few more over the weekend.

Supreme

The Tullow Tank 12/1 NRFB

Really think this is a sort that will relish a strongly run race, and keep finding up the him. Reminds me of Champagne Fever in that respect. Think if it was trained by a certain W Mullins, would be a fair few points shorter.

Ryanair

Champion Court 25/1 EW NRFB
Rolling Aces 20/1 EW NRFB

With three of the top four in the market looking like they are Gold Cup bound, think there’s plenty of value to be had. If you can ignore his lacklustre Paddy Power run, think Champion Court could well run into a place, especially with C&D form figures of 71513291.

Rolling Aces is a bit more speculative, but think this could be his distance, and fairly lightly raced, so there could be more improvement to come.

[thehorsesmouth]

Have added two Mouse Morris horses to my ante post book today. The first is a horse who is a definite RSA Chase onctender for next year, but he may ruffle a few feathers in his bid to rule the World Hurdle this time around.

Rule The World

disappointed me in the Hattons Grace and to a lesser extent again at Leopardstown but I’ve heard he was far from peak fitness in the former race and was still not firing on all cylinders at Leopardstown. He won in pleasing style over an inadequate trip at Naas at the weekend and he’ll improve a lot for three miles and better ground imo. At this stage I think it’s looking likely Annie Power will run in the Champion Hurdle which will be a serious rival out of the way here. Big Buck’s is obviously going to be hard to beat if he retains his ability but we won’t know that until he runs at the weekend. The rest of the contenders are much of a muchness and I’d take Rule The World over the likes of More Of That and Salubrious every time.

The other one I’ve backed is

Baily Green

for the Ryanair. He ran a really good race last week behind Texas Jack and I think he’ll improve from that after being below par at Leopardstown when he wasn’t right. He was spot on for Cheltenham last year when he ran a huge race in the Arkle, and in a year where the Ryanair looks very open he has as good a chance as any.

World Hurdle
Rule The World @ 20/1 (BV NRNB)

Ryanair Chase
Baily Green @ 20/1 (B365 NRNB)

[Author]

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