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Boycie is suggesting another Am I Blue affair. No doubting it was a well backed horse though. The race wasnt a particularly competitive one though to be honest.
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When an easy last-time-out winner trained by David Pipe drifts out to 15/8 from Evens, and an O’Neill-trained no-hoper (beaten a cumulative 266l on its five previous outings) is backed in to 3/1 from 14/1, I think anyone asking questions is well within their rights to do so.
The sheer weight of money for Another Trump from 13:42 onwards was incredible, driving its price from a general 8/1 down to the SP of 3/1.
That’s not blind luck or an enthusiastic Sunday crowd.
Seems to have made a rather miraculous recovery of form in a matter of two weeks since a dismal hurdles effort at Bangor followed a number of equally dismal chase performances.
Cue a stewards’ report that the trainer ‘could not explain the improvement’ and a decision not to hold an enquiry.
Difficult to see that there was anything wrong with the way Frosted Grape was run though, despite the inference in the last post. He beat the rest of the field comfortably, and surely the drift would only have reflected strong support for the winner?
Rob
It would be interesting to know how the official handicapper decided on an initial chase mark of 101 for this handicap chase debut.
The highest Racing Post rating from his four dismal chase efforts was 74, so clearly 101 isn’t based solely on his chase form.
His current hurdle mark is 115, so 101 isn’t based on his past hurdle form.
In which case it’s either been produced by a random number generator, or it’s an arbitrary decision to put his chase mark one stone lower than his hurdle mark.
AP
Agree with Rob concerning the drift of Frosted Grape so no problem with that
If Another Trump had won without being punted, I’d have no problem with that either. Head scratchers happen, that’s horses for you
But the punt, well it’s a mystery I can’t solve other than by some straw-clutching:
AT has been modestly punted on two of his previous four chase runs, notably from ~8/1 to 11/2SP last one at Bangor, and showed a little promise over today’s course when second fav on his chase debut in May. Which may suggest an inkling of ‘confidence’
AT has some decent hurdles form from a year and more ago which would have entitled him to win handsomely today off a paltry 101 if reproducing it over fences
But anything he’s done this summer could not have anticipated today’s run. From scrutinising the formbook anyway…
First handicap chase off 20lbs lower than his lto hurdles mark…hmm
Perhaps connections will invoke the ‘freshened him up with a spin over hurdles last time’ strategy if pushed further for an explanation
How competitive were the 3k/4k chases he was tailed off in?
To be honest Sean i hadnt had a look at this race prior but having done so id say the races it had previously were by far better than this one and races you would probably expect it to struggle in, mind you hindsight is a wonderful thing but i wish i had had a look now. It did seem a bit overpriced looking at the opponents today….Id have taken the 3/1
That’s why AP is champ, his never say die attitude aboard Another Trump on his previous chase start at Bangor when lesser mortals would’ve pulled the horse up (indeed jockeys in front of him that day did so).
Not AP though who assiduously ploughed on to be beaten just 108 lengths and as a result obtain a handicap mark where he might be seen to better effect when stepping into that company.
I’m sure I heard our very own GC tipped it up on Timeform Radio – He Knew
Anyhow, it and Happy Fleet being punted like defeat was out of the question in the the 5.00 at Fontwell topped off a nice week for the boys in the bookies.
The manager in Corals was almost in tears as we queued up to collect, miserable twat.
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The weakness of Frosted Grape may very well be explained by the wealth of support for Another Trump, but it is the stark combination of the two that interests me. Bookmakers aren’t at all averse to shortening more than one horse at the head of a particular market and had there been sufficient support for the favourite it surely wouldn’t have drifted so markedly.
Just out of interest, how much contact does the BHA’s handicapper have with trainers and is he allowed to bet? Is dropping a horse 1lb for refusing to race – as he did with David Pipe’s Battle Group – standard procedure?
AJ
Frosted Grape – 1/1 to 7/4
50% to 36%
Another Trump – 8/1 to 3/1
11% to 25%As a percentage of the market the two balance each other up, it’s basic maths. And in a market dominated by the favourite, 50% chance means theoretically it was originally expected to win one in two. Any significant move for another horse means the favourite is going to drift. It’s the mathematics of betting and there doesn’t have to be anything remotely sinister about either end of the move.
As an aside, as long as I’m happy about the horse I’m backing it matters diddly-squatt to me if it drifts. THere are as many that win when drifting as win when shortening.
If you don’t believe that then I live in hope that you bet in the same races as I do ….
Rob
I would agree that Frosted Grape’s price (particularly given the context of the market where the bulk of the runners seem to have been neutral/weak) is no cause for alarm.
I also agree that Frosted Grape probably ran her race. Which means of course that the winner has run to a mark of 110+ probably. There is form in his back pages that tells us he’s capable of running to that mark.
What is curious here is the abject performances so recently in the horses record combined with the market support that anticipated this performance.
AP is right to question how a handicap mark was arrived at for this horse based on his performances so far. Ratpack is right of course to praise the determination of those riders who plug on with good horses that are apparently legless, valiantly putting the interests of the paying public above those of connections.
A less scrupulous outfit might get the impression though that it’s possible to obtain a wildly innaccurate handicap mark (even with a horse of proven ability) and then to exploit that mark to land a gamble and that no action will be taken by the authorities and few eyebrows raised amongst those who follow the sport. If only to discourage such misunderstanding, an enquiry to establish the (I’m sure quite legitimate) reasons for the sudden change in fortunes that the market so accurately anticipated would be wise.
It would be interesting to know the criteria used by the Integrity Department in deciding what indicators warrant a close examination of events surrounding a possible improver. Is it market moves, jockey changes, suspicious ownership/training, poor previous form etc?
Do they have a checklist of things to look out for or do they just operate from gut feelings or external pressures?
A less scrupulous outfit might get the impression though that it’s possible to obtain a wildly innaccurate handicap mark (even with a horse of proven ability) and then to exploit that mark to land a gamble and that no action will be taken by the authorities
This example of think of a number, double it, divide by the square root of something-or-other rating the official handicappers feel forced to provide despite having no quantifiable form to assess epitomises, for me, the deep flaws in ‘three runs for a mark’ type handicapping.
And would add credence I feel to my current hobby horse of not awarding a mark to a horse until it has won a race. Furthermore, in NH it should be a hurdle win permits only a hurdle mark; a subsequent chase win will be required for a chase mark. Or vice versa of course
Look forward to Phil Smith’s Q&A response to this idea
Sean , apologies if I am wrong , but your posts appear to mirror the bookies sentiments , and to be honest some of your blogs as well
Are you their unofficial spokesman ??
cheers
R
I think you only have to look at the quality of horse AT has been running against to the quality it ran against yesterday, they are miles apart IMHO. None of the oppo’s it ran against yesterday are capable of winning a race at Worcester let alone Ascot!!(unlike oppos AT has been running against)
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