- This topic has 33 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
I still disagree with you there Black Type
I don’t really see how big bookmakers are going to be any more affected than a large-stakes backer.
..how can you or anyone else disagree when you don’t know how much the charges are going to be?
An unlucky or lucky run of events could see anyone betting in more than £50’s get clobbered one week and then not the next. The more you trade the higher your chance of liablility surely?
But it’s based on a minumum 250 markets over a 60-week period so it would have to be some lucky run.
I ask anyone to post up a realistic set of results with a max 10% RoI which will incur the premium charges.
So what we need is
1. Total staked
2. Total profits
3. Assume 2% commission rate (worst case scenario)True
I’ll need total won and total lost as well.
I can work out the implied commission from those figures.
The bookmakers will continue to pump money into the exchanges. They have no choice. We all know the effect BF has on the oncourse market and therefore shop SP’s these days. Influencing oncourse prices through the exchanges is worth a lot more to the firms than any loss they may or may not incur on BF due to the new premium charges.
Agree with you David, mainly a storm in a teacup. Betfair are far from perfect, downright crap when it comes to customer service most of the time but I think their copping undue flak on this issue.
I’ve posted this "challenge" on the Betfair forum and so far nobody has been able to come back with an answer.
Not much of a challenge Dave
1000 bets at even money – stake for each £1000
55% strike rate
ROI 10% (excluding commission/charges)
Commission Paid £1100 (2% rate)
Implied Commission Paid £1350 (assuming 3% average rate)Profit £10000
Commission Generated £1225
Charges Due £775 (575 if allowance not yet used up)Cavelino,
bookmakers pump money into exchanges to infuence sp’s,
wrong!!!,
they can easily influence on-course markets without the need to use exchanges.
ie, if its 7/4 on boards ask for a £1300/800 bookie reduces it to 6/4, its up to him if he hedges @ 3.1 on exchange, personally, dont bother the value is if I want to stand it for that amount.
sp 6/4 who needs exchanges.
Glenn – your figures are slightly out – I calculate it as follows:
1000 bets at even money – stake for each £1000
55% strike rate
ROI 10% (excluding commission/charges)
Commission Paid £11,000 (2% rate)
Implied Commission Paid £13,500 (assuming 3% average rate)Profit £100,000
Commission Generated £12,250Premium Charge £20,000
Commission Generated £12,250Premium Charge payable £7,750
This £7,750 is a rate of 7.75% on your profit of £100K which is hardly excessive?
And how many punters are staking £1,000 a pop over 1,000 different markets – this equates to £4K a week!
This charge is not designed to hit the smaller punter and somebody showing a profit of £100K a year is not a small punter.
There was a typo in my orginal. I meant £100 stakes.
The £775 is the bare minimum, the reality is likely to be much more and could very well be more than all profits made, as charges are taken weekly rather than annually.
Also you have to factor in bets on other platforms. If I was taking 2.04 elsewhere about the other side as an arb, I would be making £700 profis pre-charge, so a £775 charge is over 100% of my profits not 7.75%.
Strange kind of logic your using there Barry. Oncourse bookmakers would be arbed out of existence if they didnt stay a tick a 2 below the exchanges at all times would they not?
Your example of an oncourse £800 quid bet at 6/4 having more influence on the final SP than the tens of thousands lined up on the exchanges is hard to believe.
Is there something I’m missing here Barry?
Long live Betfair
Certain on course bookmakers who are part of the SP system have a nice arrangement with the firms. As BD says a rep asks for 1300/800 about a 7/4 shot and the bookmaker (trader) is happy to oblige, mark down to 6/4 and trade back into the real market online. This type of business goes on every day and is obviously market manipulation by the Big 3.
Cav,
I have 7/4 on my board,
exchange price is 3.1, (perhaps only to peanuts)
big firm ask me for £1300/800
I take the bet and reduce price to 6/4
dont know how arbers come into this.
Wallace, it isn’t certain bookmakers other than those who are prepared to lay larger bets, all bookmakers are offered but invariably many do not want to take the risk, or do not have the funds available to hedge at bigger prices,
regarding asking for 13/8 when 7/4 offered,
what difference, having £200@7/4, £200@13/8, £200@6/4 £200@11/8,
Cav, we dont on-course stay a tick below exchange prices all horses.
often if I want to get a horse its better to offer the public , eg. 9/4 about a 3.2 on exchanges, I’m much more likely to catch a £900/400 than get messed about on the machine by botts, and alert sit at home punters its going to drift.arbers have given up on-course years ago
Only bookmakers who are part of the SP system on the day and are willing to cooperate with the market manipulation are used by the reps from the firms.
The difference of laying a 1300/800 when 7/4 is offered is clear extra margin for the bookmakers part of the manipulation
This arrangement between the Big 3 firms and there on course bookmaker friends is blatant manipulation and profiteering.
wallace, in future I wiil insist on laying a £700/400. £650/400, £600/400, then going 11/8 on board,
If I want to sell 100,000 shares in HBOS in a minute my broker calls back later telling me 20,000 @ £1.50 20,000 @ £1.40 and the remainder @ £1.30,
not market manipulation, but market forces, supply and demand
Thanks for the replies Barry. If your offering 9/4 on exchange 3.2’s I’d imagine your very much the exception to the rule these days. Perhaps the arbers left when the bookies decided to become arbers themselves.
I dont know of any propunter who can pump the amounts of money that come onto the exchanges for individual horses 60 seconds before the off (I have the data) and take a long term view at the same time. Must be coming from somewhere…
Long live Betfair….dont get too greedy Mr Black
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.