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My Hennessy Preview now available at
http://racingrecord.blogspot.com/
For what its worth… looks particularly tricky this year!
FSL – Thanks for starting us off.
Without getting into the detail of your analysis the most striking feature was the overall approach.
The idea of a process of elimination, focusing on those that have big negatives, is interesting. Was it sherlock Holmes that said something along the lines of ‘eliminate the impossible and what is left, however improbable, must be the truth’.
Interested to hear if anyone else uses this broad approach?
(Nice blog btw stolen horse)
Nice analysis so far boys! Lots to ponder and well argued.:biggrin:
Me? I’m keeping it simple and trying to recoup reasonably painful losses from last year by once again supporting Cornish Rebel.
I was disappointed with the ride Ruby gave the Rebel in the same race last year. Not his finest moment in the saddle.
I was much happier with his Gold Cup run under Tizzard. One mistake was the difference between his eventual sixteenth place and a probable third. Jumped and travelled as well as WOA until his mistake.
In past renewals of tomorrows race, such as 1997, Suny Bay lumbered 11 – 8 to beat Barton Bank, (11-13) and Trabolgan carried 11- 12 to a confident victory last year in a better class race. Top weight can be carried by a class horse.
He goes well fresh and has form on softish ground, (form on GS: 1-3-P).
He has the class, the proven stamina, the race experience and the right connections to win a Hennessy.
Add a breathing operation – a winning Paul Nicholls strategy this season – and he looks a solid bet.;)
Without going into the detail of last week the one that catches the eye is Ardaghey.
Available at 21/1 on BF Ardaghey is the only one of those who came out positive on my ratings/odds analysis who is not readily discounted. Analysis of his form figs on good/soft and worse reads 13PU211. Dist/Going figs = 211<br>Thought well enough of by his shrewd trainer to run in the Sun Alliance (where he unseated early), not too many negs on the trends (in fact he has a good profile) and an excellent career best LTO suggest he could be the value.
Small stakes play but a very hopeful one.
State of Play could be the fly in the ointment but could have been flattered by margin of victory last time and stiff rise inflicted for that – looked outclassed in the Feltham which, if he is to win this off 11-4, has to be forgiven. <br>
Cormack
Elimination of those horse that cannot win is an interesting and worthwhile approach. Personally I go down the field and make a note of all the horses I think have chances – then you soon find that a field of say 14 or 15 can be whittles to 3 or 4 for serious consideration.
By the same token, races that are very difficult to solve soon make themselves clear quite quickly which saves spending time on races that you don’t desire to play in unnecessarily.
Also, once you have identified those horses you believe have no chance – and then check the betting to find it is a price you are happy to lay. it is an effecient way of identifying lays as well as ‘backs’ very quickly which, in an age where there appears to be a race every five minutes is important for ‘professionals’.
from a distance, I fancy and have backed Ardaghey- look back at his two runs at Chelt if you have the video.
Sorry, slow server- duplicate post.
(Edited by carvillshill at 11:00 pm on Nov. 24, 2006)
<br>Officially 14mm and the going is soft. But it’s still raining here in Swindon as I write and that measurement was up on the BHB website before 7:30 am.
If Uncle Ben lived locally, one look at my back garden would have him dreaming of a bumper crop.
AP
Hi
this looks like a wide open handicap.
Montgermont @ 6/1 is my selection, he can handle the ground and will stay.  Also proven in this sort of class, and has recorded a good speed rating. Potentially on a good handicap mark too. Jumping is a problem though…..
State Of Play @ 8/1 he is a lovely big horse. He jumps well, and seems very tough.
No bet.
byefrom<br>carlisle
<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 2:23 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
I’ve changed my mind:
Idle Talk<br>Napolitain<br>Montgermont
with Juveigneur….
In other words, I don’t know what the heck’s going to win it. But if I absolutely had to pick my main fancies, they’d be the ones.<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 1:23 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
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I love big handicaps, and the Hennessy has been good to me in the past, but no matter which way I approach this race I come up with more questions. <br>Even though the topweight runs off a similar mark to Trabolgan last year, the distinct feeling is that this is a much poorer renewal. The first 3 home last year were all good progressive horses prominent in the betting, whereas this year I feel anything could win it.<br> Cornish Rebel has as good a chance as any imo, though even he appears only the understudy for Star de Mohaison.:(
think it’s a really open race this year. haven’t caught any of the racing today, but on the assumption it’s really soft, i’d say some value in Ross Comm each way.
46.0 on betfair to win, 7.4 place.
I like the race comments last time out in RP
"Ross Comm, sent off just 16-1 for last season’s Grand National, ran like a horse who would be better for the run. He appeared to blow up inside the final 6f, and remains a horse to be interested in".
Preacher Boy
Trip and going suit and decent recent form at a high level with a low weight
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 2:44 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
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Difficult to recall any horse winning its next race after a 17lb hike, let alone a Hennessy; did it comfortably as well!<br>Congratulations to anyone who backed it, and thanks due to FSL for his efforts under duress.
Not a bad return on the each way money on Preacher Boy and Omni Cosmo Touch, but no run from Ardaghey due to a slipped-bloody-saddle.
We can put a man on the moon, build a road car which hits (a limited) 252mph and build bridges spanning incredible distances, but we can’t design a saddle which stays in place…..
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