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Okay don’t be too hard on me because I’m missing my train home to do this (5PM):). My analysis obviously won’t be at Cormacks level either as he’s a semi-Pro and I’m barely an amateur! Okay away we go with the final decs:
1 /330P- Cornish Rebel231  P F Nicholls 74  9 11-12 R Walsh <br>2 3252-1 Turpin Green(ex6) 19  N G Richards 70  7 11-10 Tony Dobbin <br>3 11151- State Of Play232  Evan Williams 36  6 11-4 Paul Moloney<br>4 1324-2 Idle Talk14  T R George 43  7 11-3 Jason Maguire <br>5 23115- Montgermont232  C R Egerton 60  6 11-2 Robert Thornton <br>6 P2FP-3 Juveigneur13  N J Henderson 67  9 11-1 Mick Fitzgerald   <br>7 31F-34 Ross Comm28  Mrs S J Smith 23  10 11-0 R M Power  <br>8 1UF0-1 Ardaghey31  N A Twiston-Davies 53  7 11-0t Mr D England(5)  <br>9 55115U Bothar Na21  W P Mullins 50  7 10-13 C O´Dwyer<br>10 10P1-4 Napolitain42  P F Nicholls 74  5 10-10b1 Paddy Merrigan(5) <br>11 1UP-11 Presenting Express40  Miss E C Lavelle 56  7 10-10 Barry Fenton <br>12 11/3-P Keltic Bard21  C J Mann 20  9 10-9p Noel Fehily <br>13 2311/2 Vodka Bleu14  D E Pipe 42  7 10-7 Timmy Murphy<br>14 12F3-2 Preacher Boy21  R J Hodges 83  7 10-6 Leighton Aspell<br>15 P292-1 Parsons Legacy21  P J Hobbs 50  8 10-5 T J O´Brien <br>16 /B1123 Omni Cosmo Touch27  Mrs S J Smith 23  10 10-0 David O´Meara
I like to focus my analysis on negatives rather than positives. I believe that anybody can pick a horse and make a (half) convincing argument for it. However, the way I look at form is as a process of elimination as horses that won’t be winning for whatever reason are ruled out until a shortcut of 4/5 is left. I then look at the prices for these and will go for one or two horses, with the emphasis on value for those left on the shortlist.
GOING
With one eye on the weather forecast, the ground will be Gd-Sft AT BEST tomorrow. Therefore top of the ground horses who do not run to their best form on ground with give in can be eliminated:
1) There is a doubt about Presenting Express on soft ground although it has won on it. Quite a few of its poor runs have come on soft ground and all its best performances have been on Gd or better going.
2) If anything, Ross Comm would like even softer ground. It seems to love to get its toes into the ground and if it did not rain further there would have to be doubts about whether the ground is soft enough.
3) State Of Play certainly is not ruled out on account of the ground, but there is a slight concern its improvement last time was due to better ground and not natural improvement. (performance at Sandown put down to poor jumping and better company)
4) Very soft ground may inconvienence Cornish Rebel who has not run on ground slower than Gd/Sft.
The ground does not seem to be a massive issue if it remains at Gd/Sft as most of these hores are proven in the ground. ÂÂÂ
CLASS CONSCIOUS – Rated within 10lbs of top rated unless had less than 10 career starts or stepping markedly up/down in trip.
1) Presenting Express is 10lb adrift of the top rated. Given the doubts also about the ground I am no longer considering it as a betting proposition for the race.
2) Connections of Ardaghey seem to be chancing their arm after an impressive performance last time. However it could still be improving and with a (5lb) claimer it is not ruled out.
3) Omni Cosmo Touch is at the foot of the handicap but doesn’t seem to be improving and isn’t good enough so is ruled out.
4) Celtic Bard is probably not capable of producing its best form.
Distance
1) Turpin Green has not run this far and with testing conditions this could turn into a test of stamina. However its best run did come when 2l 2nd to Star De Mohaison over 25f (Gd, Aintree) so it should be okay but I wouldn’t want to take too short a price.
2) Montgermonts run last time was a little bit disappointing but winning over 24f on Heavy ground 2 runs ago convinces me it has enough stamina.
3) Bothar Na may turn out to be better over slightly shorter trips. The only time it has been tried over 27f, it weakened in the last 2f though that was up Cheltenhams hill. However this is a big concern for me, and given its moderate performace last time out, while it may be a place proposition for some, I certainly can’t see it winning. Therefore I am ruling the horse out of contention.
4) Napolitain should be alright as it has shown improvement since being upped in trip. However it will have to improve for the step up in trip to have a chance and Ruby Walsh rides Corinsh Rebel instead. You could argue the price compensates for these doubts, but I want a list of likely winners and I don’t see Napolitain as a likely winner.
5) Keltic Bards two runs over further than 20f have yielded 3-P. However its last run is forgiven as it was hampered at the start. Both of these runs have been after a layoff however, and I doubt it is as good as it was and i don’t think it will stay the trip and could not be interested in backing it whatever the price.
6) Vodka Bleu is another returning from a long layoff, but the difference between this one and Keltic Bard is Vodka Bleu seems to be just as good if not better though given he is a younger horse that’s not surprising. He has not run over this sort of trip before and could "bounce" after its run last time, but if it did have the stamina it is thrown in. However it is a major concern and should be reflected in its price.
7) Preacher Boy is lightly raced and this trip looks right up his street. Potentially interesting.
So we have left now:
Cornish Rebel<br>Turpin Green<br>State Of Play<br>Idle Talk<br>Montgermont<br>Juveigneur<br>Ardaghey<br>Vodka Bleu<br>Preacher Boy<br>Parson’s Legacy
Form – "Form is temporary, class is permanent"
Yep that’s a real revelation – horses with no form can still win! However, the question is why is the horse out of form, and what reasons, if any, are there to suspect that the horse will be back in form?
1) Cornish Rebel – I would not be concerned about the horses form at the back end of last season. The horse has apparently had a breathing operation over the summer and it has run very well fresh in the past (11813). Supporters of Ruby Walsh may also suggest a correlation of good runs when Walsh rides, and bad runs when he doesn’t so Walsh on board again is a big plus.
2) Ross Comms recent two runs have been a little disappointing, but they have been over inadequate trips.
3) Juveigneur – the only other horse still in contention with poor form. However it has tended to need its comeback run so it is not that much of a concern. That run over hurdles should of put it spot on for today so not dismissed but big concern is it only has one gear – slow. The horse is proven over much further and it will need a scorching gallop to have a fair chance. Not dismissed totally though.
Against All Odds
This section looks at % risk. Do I really want to back a horse that doesn’t finish very often, is inconsistent and can chuck in a stinker, or is quirky and throws races away or doesn’t win as often as it should (now now I know who you’re thinking of, don’t be too cruel on Our Vic!). The answer is a resounding NO! Therefore this aspect of my form analysis looks to take small chances by taking on "risky" horses who represent poor value based on their record.
1) Montgermont has won 2/12 of its races. Some will certainly disagree with me, but given also that it has stamina doubts, a slightly poor run last time and fitness doubts given it has needed its first run in its past two seasons (and this race will certainly expose stamina deficiencies (SP?)) I am wanting to take it on given it is disputing favouritism.
2) Juveigneur is another I’d like to take on (though I’m not so keen on doing so) given that it has only completed 20/28 of its runs. A win record of 5/28 is also uninspiring though the 5/20 it has completed reads a little better. Everything to do with its recent form suggests soft ground will not suit it but I look back at its French form and wonder. The horse seems to have had its fair share of problems, but I’m not going to discount him at this stage but would want a big price to tempt me.
3) Ardaghey has only completed 6/9 of his races over fences. He seems another that may lack a change of gear and would benefit from a strong gallop. Ok you say I keep saying "wants a strong gallop" but is there going to be one? Well yes I think its likely. State Of Play can make the running, as can Idle Talk, Napolitain, Ross Comm and Preacher Boy. I wouldn’t like to say which will actually lead, but they are all likely to be up there<br>disputing it, so I think stamina will be the order of the day.
4) Parsons Legacy has only won 5/26 and doesn’t really seem to have the profile of a winner. It will have to improve a lot to win, and I don’t know if its capable of doing so. Either way I’m happy to overlook him and 33/1 is about right.
Shortlist
This is my shortlist. I need to go now to catch the 7PM train(!) and will update at round about 11PM.
Cornish Rebel<br>Turpin Green<br>State Of Play<br>Idle Talk<br>Juveigneur<br>Vodka Bleu<br>Preacher Boy<br>Ardaghey
Right. This shortlist is certainly manageable. My next stage is develop a sort of checklist or "Postdata" that looks at the strengths/ weaknesses of the horses. I then develop a tissue based on this to 100% (which perversely could make all the horses value as many have already been ruled out) and make a judgement based on value.
(I am having difficulties transferring this from Word to here so a change of plan – abridged version)
Cornish Rebel 4 ticks, 2 ?, 2 x<br>Turpin Green 8 ticks 1?<br>State Of Play 4 ticks, 3 ?<br>Idle Talk 5 ticks, 2 ?<br>Juveigneur 4 ticks, 2 ?, 1 x<br>Vodka Bleu 8 ticks, 1 ?, 1 x<br>Preacher Boy 6 ticks, 2 ?<br>Ardaghey 5 ticks, 2 ?
Sorry about this I can’t transfer the table over. Categories are: Going, Distance, Jockey, Form, Fitness, Ability/Class, Consistency/ Improver. (no order)
Based on this I give them a score. I keep this simple (a tick = 1pt, a ? =0pt, a x = -1pt. Therefore:
<br>Turpin Green 8pts<br>Vodka Bleu 7pts<br>Preacher Boy 6pts<br>Idle Talk 5pts<br>Ardaghey 5pts<br>State Of Play 4pts<br>Juveigneur 3pts<br>Cornish Rebel 2pts
Compiled Odds Therefore (Real odds in brackets)
Turpin Green 4/1 (6/1)<br>Vodka Bleu 9/2 (10/1)<br>Preacher Boy 11/2 (16/1) 3rd<br>Idle Talk 7/1 (8/1) 6th<br>Ardaghey 7/1 (16/1)<br>State Of Play 9/1 (6/1) 1st<br>Juveigneur 14/1 (8/1) 2nd<br>Cornish Rebel 20/1 (8/1)
My method is controversial in that it only prices up 8 horses but I have done this becuase I think the other horses have deficiencies that mean they can’t win. Therefore I get plenty of value though my betting kind of skews the market. I am happy to bet on 2 horses. The 4 that stand out as value are Turpin Green, Vodka Bleu, Ardaghey and Preacher Boy. In terms of pure value, and on their overall profile, the two I am suggesting are:
Vodka Bleu @ 10/1<br>Preacher Boy @ 16/1
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 12:57 am on Nov. 25, 2006)<br>
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 3:32 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
Good shout with Preacher Boy. Ran a good race.
(Edited by davidjohnson at 2:55 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
Sorry I just wanted to get the thread started mate. I’m wanting a fina decs stage first as certain horses are going to be pulled out but are stilltechnically in if you catch me drift.
I reckon I’ve got the short straw personally!:biggrin:
<br>Sixteen declared, the only unexpected absentee is Distant Thunder. Vodka Bleu is the sole Pipe/Johnson runner.
And I’d just like to explain early on that Omni Cosmo Touch is nothing to do with me ……..
AP
Hello,
A couple of cats are going to have sore arses’ tonite!!:)
Mounty’s Neighbour:
"…I heard some terrible noises’ from next door, and it wasn’t Distant thunder, more like distressed animals…"
regards,
doyley
My three against the field:
Juveigneur<br>Napolitain<br>Keltic Bard.
For what it may be worth!
Initial thought is that three of those that have not run this season, Montgermont, State of Play and cornish rebel are to be avoided. This is always a punishing race (no doubt someones got some stats to prove otherwise :angry: )
Yes.. I was anticipating that one :)
But think that horse is a genuinely classy animal. Doesnt seem to be same quality around this year
All those planning to burn the midnight oil trying to unravel an ultra competitive 16 runner handicap would be well advised to keep a close eye on the weather forecast. Storm force winds and plenty of rain likely overnight/morning. It’s possible Newbury may escape the worst but the met boffins are still unsure as to the storm’s exact track and progress across the country.
Worst-case scenario sees the stand roof ending up in Reading, but at the very least soft going and a strong headwind in the straight looks pretty certain.<br>
(Edited by Drone at 4:17 pm on Nov. 24, 2006)
Fortunately for my feline friends I’m staying in Newbury tonight so they’ve escaped. Word of advice – never phone reception and ask for "three cats to be sent to room 113" – got the wrong idea and asked me to leave.
Of those at the head of the market, Turpin Green looks far the most likely (to me) to take the race but, like those around him in the weights, I have my doubts as to how well he’ll cope with Saturday’s conditions.
Nicky Richards has always thought plenty of him, and on his defeat to Star De Mohaison at Aintree last year he has top claims. However, twenty-six furlongs in soft ground isn’t going to suit, especially having to lump 11-11 of dead-weight in Tony Dobbin.
State of Play hammered Lacdoudal at Liverpool in April, having only been raised 18lb for two extremely comfortable wins and a (possibly fruitful) poor showing at Sandown, but was receiving masses of weight from the runner-up. Up 17lb, first time out, on soft ground, in superior company – not one for me.
Montgermont’s defeat of Bob Bob Bobbin over 3m at Lingfield certainly reads well on this season’s form, and the fact that he has won on heavy ground is also a bonus. However I am worried that Charlie Egerton’s horses are only running well, without winning and that the horse’s jumping can be sketchy at times.
With doubts cast on the chances of the leading trio, I started to look toward the other end of the market – aside from Idle Talk (a horse I’ve always liked) – I ended up with the shortlist of:
Idle Talk<br>Ardaghey<br>Preacher Boy<br>Omni Cosmo Touch
Idle Talk was tailed off in the Lingfield event won by Montgermont back in February, but had previously won on very soft ground on debut. His run behind Star De Mohaison at Cheltenham looks exceptionally good in light of the 10lb he was giving away and he arrives here in top shape after pushing My Will close at Chepstow on his reappearance.
The noting of Ardaghey was as much based on his promising run at Cheltenham (a faller when challenging in the race won by Hot Weld) as anything else, but he clearly revels in testing going and has stamina by the bucket load. A winner last month at Cheltenham, he has to go close with a useful 5lb taken off.
Preacher Boy, having only had six outings under rules, could still have plenty of improvement left in him and ran well enough in trying to concede weight to Chilling Place at Exeter in April. The 2m 4f trip was clearly too short for him, borne out by his promising run behind (the reopposing) Parson’s Legacy last time. An in-form Leighton Aspell and turnaround in the weights with the Hobbs horse should bode well.
Omni Cosmo Touch wasn’t a horse I was going to give much of a hope to at the foot of the weights (which will be a help in itself) following his defeat of Elenas River last season, but it was hard not to be taken by how well he ran behind two classy fencers in Monet’s Garden and Mid Dancer. The former clearly wasn’t fully fit for his run at Carlisle, but the French animal is no slouch and to get within six lengths over a trip short of his best, Omni Cosmo Touch did well.
Main hopes: Idle Talk and Ardaghey<br>Places: Omni Cosmo Touch and Preacher Boy
I am a newby to the forum and this is my first post but I have been following UK racing for over 50 years.
The going forecast is GS with a wet night too.<br>The RP f/c this as a restricted race indicating that the winner will come from the first 7 in the forecast.<br>The most fancied of these in order of preference:
Montgermont down 7lbs and off track 232 days? But should be considered.<br>Turpin Green up 6lbs and could be favoured by the D.<br>State Of Play up 16lbs? Off track 232 days? Otherwise a leading contender.<br>Idle Talk up 3lbs. Not proven on soft going?<br><br>I trust that you won’t mind but I am going to have a second bite at the cherry and cover all the runners from the short half of the RP betting forecast. Bearing in mind that the race today is 26.5GS:
MONTGERMONT down 7lbs. 5th by 21L, 25G 232 days since – weakened<br>TURPIN GREEN up 6lbs. Won by 28L, 20S 19 days since – STAYED ON STRONGLY TO GO CLEAR*<br>STATE OF PLAY up 16lbs? Won by 16L, 25G 232 days since – CLEAR LAST, EASED*<br>CORNISH REBEL up 3lbs. PU, 36GS 231 days since – behind, hampered, jumped slowly<br>IDLE TALK up 3lbs. 2nd by .5L, 28GS 14days since – BATTLED ON WELL, JUST HELD*<br>JUVEIGNEUR up 1lb. 3rd by 6.5L, 21GS 13 days since – ridden, no extra flat<br>VODKA BLEU down 4lbs. 2nd by 3L, 21GS 14 days since – heade before last, just held on for 2nd
(Edited by Formath at 1:03 pm on Nov. 25, 2006)
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