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April 3, 2008 at 08:27 #155333
I know the average stake per bet in high street betting shops is actually very low at around £2.70 per slip so it can be called high stakes gambling compared to average shop slips but if he has made so far this season over £4k he only went to stake a total of £310.00 for 10 bets in the last 2 days.
So it is not high stakes gambling compared to his pocket.I chose to interpret Wallace’s phrase "high stakes gambling" as "high risk gambling" with that risk growing rapidly as the stakes (money) increase by the order of 2^x – the familiar chessboard and grain of wheat fable
April 3, 2008 at 10:51 #155363Yes Drone, "high risk gambling" is the correct interpretation. High risk as the stakes rapidly increase and gambling as selecting virtually random Favs.
Seagull, how does the strike rate and average price with your filters compare to the figures for all favs I posted?
April 3, 2008 at 18:16 #155577Wallace
Are those figures correct?
The strike rate looks marginally bigger than the average price.
2.02 to 1 is equivalent to 33.1% probabilty and 2.05 gives 32.8, yet these favourites are winning 34.5% of races. I would have expected an average price of about 1.75 to 1(36.4% probabilty) given the bookmaker’s margin.
April 4, 2008 at 03:17 #155684Thurs April 3rd
ANY FAV
Binocular looked might impressive when winning the 7th race @11/8.
For Marks sake glad those odds on favs all lost earlier in the day!£320 stake won £440.00 less stake
profit on day £125.00bank to c/f £4,361.52
ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS.
Enroller won the 5th race @11/10 (that fitted the 2 filters)
£160 stake won less stake £176.00actually beat that price after commision v easily b/fair but to be fair just putting prices anyone could have obtained.
profit on day £26.00
bank to c/f £476.15
April 4, 2008 at 04:34 #155688Wallace
I started betting using the 2 filters on 26th January so it is no real period of time to determine any trends.68 Days as there was no racing Good Friday.
With the trainer stats I used the past 6 years to attempt to find an edge.
However so far the average number of races it has taken to arrive at the first winner has been 1.87 races.
26 winners have been odds on and 36 have been evens (7 times and all odds against on betfair after comm) or odds against.
two days with no winners fom 6 races 26th March 4 losers 25 Feb 2 losersFrom my betfair records where the vast majority of the bets have been struck the average price has been 2.252 (just over 5/4 ) before any comm charges. So I suspect in shops at S.P. (Which are the prices posted here) the average price overall would be around 6/5 – 11/10 mark.
Average daily return has been £7.00 on the official S/P.
At the current rate it would only make £2,500 a year which just about doubles the bank (beats building societys though)
Taken me a while to do this for you!April 5, 2008 at 04:45 #156021Friday 4 April
ANY FAV
Emshaab won the 2nd race of the day @11/8
profit on day £8.75bank to c/f £4,370.27
ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Emshaab wn the 2nd race of the day @11/8
profit on day £17.50bank to c/f £493.65
April 5, 2008 at 19:26 #156269Sat 5th April
ANY FAV
Ignotus won the 3rd race of the day but @2/9 made a loss of
£10.56 on the day.Bank to c/f £4,359.71
ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Tidal Bay won the 1st race @6/4
profit on day £15.00bank to c/f £500.27
April 5, 2008 at 19:40 #156275I have asked someone who knows the T4C selections if they could post up the selections and profit/loss for 13th April until 19th April.
Is there anyone willing to calculate and enter up the profit/loss accounts for this Old Boy method and also the EW doubles for me as I am going to Jersey for a weeks holiday on the above dates.
I would like to keep both these methods fully updated whilst I am away.
I can give you details of the website that calculates ew bets.April 6, 2008 at 17:15 #156484Sun 6th April
ANY FAV
Metaphonice won 4th race ofthe day but @2/5 lost
£19.00 on dayBank to c/f £4,340.17
ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Metaphonic won 1st race @2/5profit on day £4.00
bank to c/f
£504.27April 7, 2008 at 20:03 #156742Just to keep a complete record
Hope this is right!
Mon 07-Apr
ANY FAV
Raysrock won 2nd race* (KEL 14:30) @ 5/6Profit on day £3.33
Bank to c/f £4,343.50
*: the 1st race of the day (KEM 14:10) had joint-favs so I didn’t include this one
ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Natiain won 6th race @ 8/11Loss on day £77.27
bank to c/f
£427.00April 7, 2008 at 21:44 #156781DAVIDBRADY / SEAGULL
330 KELSO robbers glen, does this one fit the system .April 7, 2008 at 22:53 #156792Hi arkle55 – the race won by Robbers Glen contained 12 runners and Seagull is restricting the second part of the system to non-hcps containing max 9 runners. If you backed it, it would have been a nice mistake to make though!
April 8, 2008 at 05:08 #156804Can someone post up results please next week start sunday end sat as wont be around?
Otherwise I have to do a weeek when get back from Jersey.Mon 7th April
ANY FAV
Rayrock won 3rd race of the day @5/6
profit on day £1.66bank to c/f £4342.37
ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Natian won the 5th race that fitted the above filters
stake £160 on 8/11 made a loss of £33.68 on the daybank to c/f 470.59
April 8, 2008 at 10:00 #156836DAVIDBRADY
Yes you are correct, my mistake .April 8, 2008 at 15:57 #156907Edited to add: I have spoken to Seagull so we will run with my figures for the moment
Tue 08-Apr RESULTS
ANY FAV
Sir Billy Nick won 4th race @ 2/1Profit on Day £45.00
Bank to c/fwd £4,388.50
ANY FAV NON-HCP TO 9 RUNNERS
Wee Forbees won 2nd race @ 4/7Profit on Day £1.43
Bank to c/fwd £428.43
April 9, 2008 at 20:11 #157164Wed 09-Apr RESULTS
ANY FAV
Heaven Or Hell won 4th race @ 3/1Profit on Day £85.00
Bank to c/fwd £4,473.50
ANY FAV NON-HCP TO 9 RUNNERS
Heaven Or Hell won 1st race @ 3/1Profit on Day £30.00
Bank to c/fwd £458.43
April 10, 2008 at 14:43 #157258Thu 10-Apr RESULTS
ANY FAV
Northern Tour won 1st race @ 4/6Profit on Day £3.33
Bank to c/fwd £4,476.83
ANY FAV NON-HCP TO 9 RUNNERS
Northern Tour won 1st race @ 4/6Profit on Day £6.67
Bank to c/fwd £465.10
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