An old boy I know swears this one makes money.

[Drone]

I know the average stake per bet in high street betting shops is actually very low at around £2.70 per slip so it can be called high stakes gambling compared to average shop slips but if he has made so far this season over £4k he only went to stake a total of £310.00 for 10 bets in the last 2 days.
So it is not high stakes gambling compared to his pocket.

I chose to interpret Wallace’s phrase "high stakes gambling" as "high risk gambling" with that risk growing rapidly as the stakes (money) increase by the order of 2^x – the familiar chessboard and grain of wheat fable

[Wallace]

Yes Drone, "high risk gambling" is the correct interpretation. High risk as the stakes rapidly increase and gambling as selecting virtually random Favs.

Seagull, how does the strike rate and average price with your filters compare to the figures for all favs I posted?

[Artemis]

Wallace

Are those figures correct?

The strike rate looks marginally bigger than the average price.

2.02 to 1 is equivalent to 33.1% probabilty and 2.05 gives 32.8, yet these favourites are winning 34.5% of races. I would have expected an average price of about 1.75 to 1(36.4% probabilty) given the bookmaker’s margin.

[Seagull]

Thurs April 3rd

ANY FAV
Binocular looked might impressive when winning the 7th race @11/8.
For Marks sake glad those odds on favs all lost earlier in the day!

£320 stake won £440.00 less stake
profit on day £125.00

bank to c/f £4,361.52

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS.
Enroller won the 5th race @11/10 (that fitted the 2 filters)
£160 stake won less stake £176.00

actually beat that price after commision v easily b/fair but to be fair just putting prices anyone could have obtained.

profit on day £26.00

bank to c/f £476.15

[Seagull]

Wallace
I started betting using the 2 filters on 26th January so it is no real period of time to determine any trends.

68 Days as there was no racing Good Friday.

With the trainer stats I used the past 6 years to attempt to find an edge.

However so far the average number of races it has taken to arrive at the first winner has been 1.87 races.

26 winners have been odds on and 36 have been evens (7 times and all odds against on betfair after comm) or odds against.
two days with no winners fom 6 races 26th March 4 losers 25 Feb 2 losers

From my betfair records where the vast majority of the bets have been struck the average price has been 2.252 (just over 5/4 ) before any comm charges. So I suspect in shops at S.P. (Which are the prices posted here) the average price overall would be around 6/5 – 11/10 mark.

Average daily return has been £7.00 on the official S/P.

At the current rate it would only make £2,500 a year which just about doubles the bank (beats building societys though)
Taken me a while to do this for you!

[Seagull]

Friday 4 April

ANY FAV
Emshaab won the 2nd race of the day @11/8
profit on day £8.75

bank to c/f £4,370.27

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Emshaab wn the 2nd race of the day @11/8
profit on day £17.50

bank to c/f £493.65

[Seagull]

Sat 5th April

ANY FAV
Ignotus won the 3rd race of the day but @2/9 made a loss of
£10.56 on the day.

Bank to c/f £4,359.71

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Tidal Bay won the 1st race @6/4
profit on day £15.00

bank to c/f £500.27

[Seagull]

I have asked someone who knows the T4C selections if they could post up the selections and profit/loss for 13th April until 19th April.

Is there anyone willing to calculate and enter up the profit/loss accounts for this Old Boy method and also the EW doubles for me as I am going to Jersey for a weeks holiday on the above dates.

I would like to keep both these methods fully updated whilst I am away.
I can give you details of the website that calculates ew bets.

[Seagull]

Sun 6th April

ANY FAV
Metaphonice won 4th race ofthe day but @2/5 lost
£19.00 on day

Bank to c/f £4,340.17

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Metaphonic won 1st race @2/5

profit on day £4.00

bank to c/f
£504.27

[davidbrady]

Just to keep a complete record

Hope this is right!

Mon 07-Apr

ANY FAV
Raysrock won 2nd race* (KEL 14:30) @ 5/6

Profit on day £3.33

Bank to c/f £4,343.50

*: the 1st race of the day (KEM 14:10) had joint-favs so I didn’t include this one

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Natiain won 6th race @ 8/11

Loss on day £77.27

bank to c/f
£427.00

[arkle55]

DAVIDBRADY / SEAGULL
330 KELSO robbers glen, does this one fit the system .

[davidbrady]

Hi arkle55 – the race won by Robbers Glen contained 12 runners and Seagull is restricting the second part of the system to non-hcps containing max 9 runners. If you backed it, it would have been a nice mistake to make though!

[Seagull]

Can someone post up results please next week start sunday end sat as wont be around?
Otherwise I have to do a weeek when get back from Jersey.

Mon 7th April

ANY FAV
Rayrock won 3rd race of the day @5/6
profit on day £1.66

bank to c/f £4342.37

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Natian won the 5th race that fitted the above filters
stake £160 on 8/11 made a loss of £33.68 on the day

bank to c/f 470.59

[arkle55]

DAVIDBRADY
Yes you are correct, my mistake .

[davidbrady]

Edited to add: I have spoken to Seagull so we will run with my figures for the moment

Tue 08-Apr RESULTS

ANY FAV
Sir Billy Nick won 4th race @ 2/1

Profit on Day £45.00

Bank to c/fwd £4,388.50

ANY FAV NON-HCP TO 9 RUNNERS
Wee Forbees won 2nd race @ 4/7

Profit on Day £1.43

Bank to c/fwd £428.43

[davidbrady]

Wed 09-Apr RESULTS

ANY FAV
Heaven Or Hell won 4th race @ 3/1

Profit on Day £85.00

Bank to c/fwd £4,473.50

ANY FAV NON-HCP TO 9 RUNNERS
Heaven Or Hell won 1st race @ 3/1

Profit on Day £30.00

Bank to c/fwd £458.43

[davidbrady]

Thu 10-Apr RESULTS

ANY FAV
Northern Tour won 1st race @ 4/6

Profit on Day £3.33

Bank to c/fwd £4,476.83

ANY FAV NON-HCP TO 9 RUNNERS
Northern Tour won 1st race @ 4/6

Profit on Day £6.67

Bank to c/fwd £465.10

[Author]

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