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Aggregate winning distances at Southwell were high today…but work means I dont know what the distance market odds were prior to racing.
Not sure if todays Southwell tips can be placed here or not…but I will anyway.
In the last race at Southwell Grand Award. He ran in one of the hottest NHF races run this season at Sandown and had to concede weight to potentially smart horses like Megastar, Rebel Rebellion, Master of the Hall, Wayward Prince to name just the first 4 home. He finished 7th beaten around 20 lengths but even the 6th Stoney’s Treasure has won twice since. There are some potentially nice sorts in this event but for my money he has the best form on offer and will do for me at 7-1.
And as well as a single on Grand Award I will have an each way double with Satwa Gold in the 5.45 Kempton. He is an in and out performer but his record in Kempton AW Claimers is good and he should at least make the frame at 4-1.
Flamestone has run well after a break before and could go well at a nice price in the 4.15 at Kempton. Black Draft has a decent EW shout in the 4.45 and Ensnare could well repeat his C&D win a couple of runs back in the 7.15.
Good luck all
Tourist in the 6.40 at Wolves tonight should take at least a place. Won nicely over C&D in November and has been running consistently since and with the Shaw stable back among the winners the 14/1 available is too good to turn down
Good luck all
Too close to call that race, Aaron but Tourist is in my notebook. I’ll leave it to you.
However, I’ve been waiting for El Potroto run back at Wolverhampton for nearly a month and he is going to run a much better race than last time in the 7.10. Everything in its favour – including the draw funnily enough. Ran one of his best races from draw 13 here a while back.
Best of luck.
Very competitive race that one, will be surprised if Tourist was in the shake up as he’s on a tough mark, will go for Vhujon who can hopefully recreate some of his 2008 form. Agree on El Potro, he seems to pop up now and then at big odds and is on a low mark. Like Meikle Barfit too at 25/1, running a bit better than recent form figures suggest (not beaten far last time).
Thanks Rich. Tourist seemed to have a few plus marks for me tonight. When winning over C&D he recorded a time .42 outside of standard running from stall 12 which was just about the best performance of that particular meeting. Also won nicely over 7f at Wolves as well in a steady time and put that together with the Shaw horses showing some better form I thought 14/1 was a good wager albeit in a higher grade than it had run in recently. It’s certainly nice when these occasionally win
I should have that as my new tag line, i’m the next John McCririck! Some good insights and thought into the selection, it often pays to go with the improving types in these events rather than those tumbling down the weights, although they’re perilously tricky to try and have a bet on, I was on Vhujon who again was on the premises but didn’t have that extra turn of foot or navigation through the field to trouble the leader.
Will hopefully bounce back and provide a winner at Wolves tonight, no winners since Monday!
Calzaghe in thw 2.40 Lingfield is very interesting. Last won off a mark of 60 at the venue in the Autumn and has since made hay over jumps, culminating with a mark of 117 pver hurdles. Now on 69 back on the AW, Lucey Butler taking off 3lb and could be a classic Jim Best coup to translate the copious amount of improvement over the obstacles back on the flat, 4/1 looks excellent value in a race with the usual drab. Prince Charlemagne came close to Calzaghe in that race but is an inconsistent performer, so Calzaghe for me.
Great bit of work, Aaron. I am profoundly jealous.
Max
Many thanks for leaving it to me
Calzaghe in thw 2.40 Lingfield is very interesting. Last won off a mark of 60 at the venue in the Autumn and has since made hay over jumps, culminating with a mark of 117 pver hurdles. Now on 69 back on the AW, Lucey Butler taking off 3lb and could be a classic Jim Best coup to translate the copious amount of improvement over the obstacles back on the flat, 4/1 looks excellent value in a race with the usual drab. Prince Charlemagne came close to Calzaghe in that race but is an inconsistent performer, so Calzaghe for me.
Rich
Quite like Calzaghe myself. I would also give Stumped a chance, a similar rating over the sticks and ran well enough over C&D when last seen on the flat.
Can’t really get too excited on much this afternoon and will take a look at Wolves later on
Yes, Lingfield and Southwell today don’t really enthuse, i’d give a couple of outsiders a chance in the 5.50, Makshoof runs off a lenient mark and interesting that Neil Callan rides, 22/1 looks a fair ew bet and Monte Cassino, despite 3 or 4 terrible runs recently is also on a low mark of 52 and has run one or two decent races at the track so would give him an outside squeak too.
A few caught my eye today.
African Cheetah in the 6.50 at Wolves has caught my eye on many occasions going back ove rthe past season. Caught my eye at Donny in a maiden, caught my eye at Folkestone in a handicap and finally did the business for me on his first start for Reg Hollinshead at Wolves last time out.
Looks like he needs a good gallop and plenty of driving and think both can be assured here with Inheritor a likely pace pusher and Franny Norton capable of pushing African Cheetah home. A wide draw is a slight negative but rather that than stuck in amongst them on the inside as I dont think he does anything quickly the horse. He is currently 9-1 or so.
Another longshot today is Monsieur Reynard in the last at Lingfield. Just think he has more talent than his winning reord suggests and at 12-1 he can make the frame. I also think Kersivay is in with every chance in the fist at Wolves around 7-1.
Another pension job Max
420 Onceuponatime
450 Interchoice Star Alt Well Of Echoes
520 Tallest Peak Alt Jord
550 All You Need Alt Dickie Le Davoir
650 Stand Guard Alt Quick Release
750 Fine Tolerance Alt Take It ThereGood Luck all
Maxilon,
I find your views of the Hughie Morrison yard amunsingly misguided. Especially when you refer to the fact that he is ‘aristocratic’ (which by the way is very much debatable)being in some way the reason why 72 rated handicappers are seemingly below him. There were a number of horses rated below Brazilian Brush that ran out of Morrisons yard last season. One that springs to mind is Moutain Forest who now runs in the said trainers name! You forget it is not the trainer who chooses whether a horse runs in a claimer or seller but the owner, which they have every right to do.
Well done Aaron, excellent judgement.
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