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I had convinced myself that Ella Woodcock (6.20) was a good thing after a return to form last time, but it would seem that Desert Vision has improved beyond recognition in the matter of a few days – 6lb worse off for a half-length defeat and he saunters to victory.
The all-weather in a nutshell (a slogan which has saved me a few quid this evening).
I don’t think Ella Woodcock could ever be considered a good thing
To be fair last time was an apprentice hands and heels race, not races to be taken for gospel in the form book and the 6lbs was in jockey claims
Wolverhampton 13:20
Co-choice between Bawaardi and Justcallmehandsome. Back the bigger odds of the two before the offLingfield 13:25
Decider and Fromsong are the main considerations @ 5/1 or better. Watch in market Ten DownWolverhampton 13:55
Golden Prospect, Another Try, Borasco and Vogarth short listed. Preference for the former two @ 4/1 or betterLingfield 14:00
Edith’s Boy, Littlemisssunshine, Thoughtsofstardom and Raimond Ridge are short listed. Final selection@ 4/1 or better however I may pass the raceWolverhampton 14:25
Kielty’s Folly, Josiah Bartlett, Kamanja, Lyrical Intent and Le Reve Roya short listed in this trappy contest. Bet odds >5/1 <12/1 which suggests those highlighted should be given consideration near the off.Wolverhampton 15:00
Dutch Ask Jenny, Gracie’s Gift and Don Pele if odds > 3/1.Mad Saturday Christmas Treble
W.13:20 Justcallmehandsome
L. 13:25 Decider, Fromsong
W. 15:00 Ask Jenny, Gracie’s Gift, Don Pele6 x £1 trebles. Total Stake £6.00
Estimated minimum return if winning at current odds: £200Short listed
a. Spinning Bailiwick, b. Master Lightfoot, c. Musical Script , Resplendent Alpha, Labisa, Leading Edge, Perfect Act,Although Spinning Bailiwick is respect I think the course configuration (unlike Lingfield) and end to end gallop will be her undoing. With high drawn early paced runners preferred over this distance, Master Lightfoot will run the pace to suit or set things up for Musical Script.
Minimum odds 6/1 or better.
Exacta
AB over ABC (6lines)
505K Nativity (Nappety nap nap)
Also in the same race
Malapropism – place only 14/1 BetfairSouthwell 12.55
Was hoping Nightjar would slip under the radar here but no such luck. Ingleby Arch has not proven himself over 7f to date but he remains in fantastic form, not as well weighted with Nightjar as their previous meeting but the latter has since had a break and switched stables and got the wide box in stall 9 so at 6/1 I’m prepared to give Ingleby Arch a chance, he’s more like a 4’s in my book. I’ll be giving Snow Bay a chance also, a step up in class today but he’s lightly raced in comparison to this field, he’d need to keep improving but he could do just that and there’s the likely chance he could get an uncontested lead I wouldn’t leave him unbacked at 9/1
Ingleby Arch @ 6/1 to win
Snow Bay @ 9/1 to wintb
Snow Bay wouldn’t be without a chance and I have him as second best but I can’t see past Nightjar today. 3/3 over C&D and a good second LTO to Ingleby Arch for which he is 4lb better off for a length and a half.
125 The first three in the betting should fight out the finish here. Preference is just for First Swallow back down to 5F to deny Thoughtsofstardom its third win in the last two weeks
155 Metal Guru could take this if acting on the surface but I’m taking a small EW interest in Berrymead who showed a little bit of improved form LTO over C&D.
225 I would give Oke Bay a chance here but the lay off slightly puts me off so I’m going for Jazrawy to defy the bounce theory and build on his LTO 2nd on his first run for 18 months. Course regular Jackie Kiely could give him most to do from the bottom of the handicap.
325 Merrion Tiger is a strong fancy for this. 3/3 at Southwell including a rout LTO over the distance. Stormy Summer ran well LTO against an improver and could chase MT home
Good luck to all
I can always see past an overpriced favourite Aaron
I’m not disregarding Nightjar, I make him favourite but there is better value in the field and there are reasons to oppose
Was it just me thinking Secretive was extreme value even at 8/11, with the 2nd and 3rd favourites non runners? Had a much classier pedigree than nearest challenger Golden Tiger and with only 6 left in the race, with 8/11 still available, was a stonking price. Stravita for me in the 2.25, won the race last year and back to same mark, must go close with the funky Gibbon piloting.
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8/11 about a Mark Johnston newcomer in a December maiden at Southwell is never a ‘stonking’ price. With the second and third favourites out he was, on pedigree at least, much the likeliest winner, but you’re unlikely to get rich following such horses (indeed, he looked decidedly heavy in the parade ring and was by no means guaranteed to be fit enough to win).
I thought Golden Tiger was a "stonking" place bet @ 1.89, to be in the 3 from 6.
I actually heard the pre race " fat" comment, but I do think exchange in running players over reacted. I put up a bet of 6.0, which was matched as soon as he was ridden, but I can’t think of many MJ horse that can be called unfit. The I.R price of 20.0 was simply crazy.
I think that is what seperates MJ/ Sir M. Stoute etc from the rest of the trainers; they can win maidens and progress from there, rather than the Sir. M. Prescott route.
It could be argued that each individual horse has to be trained on it’s merits, but I always find analysing MJ entries less time consuming than most.
Going back to the original question of whether he was value, I suppose the best time to answer that question is after his run off his new mark. It’s difficult knowing how he will be assessed, beating a 62 rated filly by 10 lths, who did not stay. I would hope the h/capper would be lenient going around 76, as the ground conditions played a big part, but I think he will go beyond that. I’m particularly interested in the mark awarded to Imprimis Tagula, who won by 9 lths.
Cheers beamer
Cheers beamer
Does anyone else think Silver Hotspur in the 2.50 at Southwell tomorrow is back at a mark near to a winning one?
Won this same race last year and boasts a 7 wins from 17 outings at Southwell, which isn’t too bad considering it’s overall record is only 8 wins from 56 starts.
Latest run was it’s first at Southwell for 12 races and in running report reads…."slowly into stride, in rear, ridden and some headway over 1f out, never nearer"
Taking the above into consideration I reckon he could go close tomorrow at a decent price..
gone for avertis 2.50 southwell 7/1 ew
decent record at southwell 1331 out of 4 races there.
best bet of the day has to be ebraam at 4.45 wovlerhamton at 11s
C&D record over last 5 races is 12711
good performer at a good price
3.35 Lingfield Den’s Gift
7.20 Kempton Bertoliver
7.50 Kempton Court Princess
8.50 Kempton CaponeAll obvious choices, but surprising were any of them out of the 3.
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