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Kempton 6.30
Nuthatch
Each way
The top three are potentially clear of the rest but at the weights the filly could fly past the top two.
Combination trifecta with the top two.7pm
High Court Judge
Win
Kempton
Ex johnny murtagh dead heated on debut for Henry spiller.
Might be more to come now off just three pounds higher.
Non runner right in his lee to which may leave him clear….Dundalk
7.15
Even Joseph O’Brien would admit this is a desperate race for his pair and the only way he can get his San Andreas to win is to put him in one of these races.
ANGELS WRATH
LONGSENIOR
Both
Win
Johnny murtaghs angels wrath and LONGSENIOR both have chances here even though the latter is here to prepare for the turf…Angels wrath second to a 100 plus rated horse utilizing a ten pound claimer to get home.
Kempton 7.30
IN THE GIVING
Win
Comes over from Ireland and debuts for Haggas’ Newmarket yard.
Hiked 12 lbs after handicap debut win off 60
Upset in stalls at the Curragh in big field race and still finished fourth.
Dropped 2 pounds and joined by top apprentice whose five pound claim puts this runner spot on and slightly ahead of the handicapper now.
Jockey three wins from six rides two seconds and a sixth.Kempton 8pm
MR INSPIRATION
Win
Has James Doyle back in the saddle for his only ride.
It’s pretty clear who is top choice when available. But pulling the strings is probably not John Gosden who has had Havlin and Buick on board without success while Doyle is 1/1 on him.
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HIGH COURT JUDGE
The winner.
NUTHATCH
A good each way 3rd @ 12/1 and an £ 11 trifecta.Warwick 1.50
STARVOSKI
Each way
As a course winner has a great chance on his best form.
No win for nearly a year but significantly is a winning pointer on yielding ground.
He won a handicap hurdle off a similar mark at uttoxetter just under a year ago on march 19th again on soft ground.
He was called up to the stewards on latest run and the explanation given was that he didn’t act on the good going.
He was a very short price that day and now has his conditions.
Also to be noted, the handicapper raised him a few pounds despite his poor run so has taken a harsh opinion of his efforts.Back in the Alexanders again.
Flat horses having first run for new yard
5:00W Wolf Of Kingstreet
5:30W Tanseeq
5:30W Wooders Dream
8:00W Beleaguerment
Not a comprehensive list and flat only.
But it yielded two winners and two placed horses yesterday.
There are lots of second and third time runners.
An interesting race at 8pm with a lot of contenders. Hugh Taylor has gone for too funky which will take a huge chunk out of the market. I don’t normally play until just before the race but there is a massively strong alternative in BILLIAN in my opinion. Original rating 80. Hasn’t won since a maiden but placed and gone desperately close last four runs in handicaps. Drops in class and rated just 50 now and Kevin Stott rides.
Stott is the form jockey here with a big win in Ireland at the weekend and another for George Boughey last night, and he’ll like nothing better than serving it up to Oisin Murphy if he can. Only ride of the day.
With too funky going to be widely over bet now and bookies pocketing a massive dividend on a horse thanks to a tipsters influence, I still think it is worth waiting to see how the market develops, especially to see which horses drop out if any. Because physics can also play a large part in the outcome of the race due to the draw and weights (if anyone is carrying a penalty.) The other runner of interest is off the newcomer’s list. BELEAUGERMENT with Oisin Orr on board won around this time last year at dundalk and again in October. Obviously with limited all weather opportunities in Ireland, drops from handicaps into this grade on debut for new yard. That is another reason why it’ll pay to watch how the make up and fabric of the race and market unfolds.
AS PER ABOVE
8PMBELEAUGERMENT
BILLIONS
both win
These two appeal the most with beleaguerment benefitting from the ‘free energy’ aspect.As I’ve said free energy can be “negative and positive” and wether it’s had any influence on beleaguerment’s mishap……
But
BILLIAN
wins with a lot to spare.Stewards enquiry.
8.30
Pandemic princesss
Each way
Just second run for new yard and moved on from previous yard just three runs since coming over from Ireland.
Very well treated indeed
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BILLIAN an easy winner. Beleaguerment a “non runner”.
Pandemic princesss out with the washing.Mind you I’m very happy to accept “out with the washing” as PANDEMIC PRINCESS paid four places @ 66/1
Navan 2.15
The top weight won by four lengths tried over this trip at dundalk the other night so is the one to beat but does carry a half stone penalty.
Mudlarks at play here but using the system to try and identify some likely sorts…
IT’LL DO MY DAY
Each way
ran well on the weekend and drawn to go on here. Played in here under 10 lb claimer who hasn’t won in over a year. Yet to improve on maiden victory over castle star (rated 108)
May possibly benefit from top weight carrying a penalty for win at Dundalk.
HOT SUNSET
Win
Also drawn to go well
Another runner from Sunday.Lingfield 1.20
Eight mile may well win this race easily but he’s been beaten favourite the last three runs and is not a strong favourite as he steps up in trip now after numerous attempts over shorter so today could be his day but ….
only one previous winner in a very poor looking contestALICEFROMUMBRIDGE
Each way
But
DOVES OF PEACE
Win
Could be the class runner here.
Dropped from class four and five for handicap debut and stepped right up in trip from five and six furlongs. One of two runners on course today for Micheal Bell. Two runners from Dove of peace’s previous races have been out this week and won readily.
Drawn alongside both non runners directly and on the traverse.Leopardstown 3.05
Brazil
Win
off the flat since October 21 but been hurdling and has beaten all comers in that sphere including the boodles and latterly fil dor.
Last seen losing a match race in December over hurdles.
Runs off a mark of 83 and a confirmed mudlark could have gotten in lightly and with the top weight carrying a penalty could be considered the defacto top weight here, if that one isn’t able to carry the additional burden.Cork 2.55
SAN AER
Win
NAVAGGIO
Each way
Navaggio first start for new yard.
Won a maiden off a mark of 79 and has run in several handicaps off higher.
Back down to 79 after leaving Johnny murtagh.
San Aer ran a strong race in Lincolnshire and is first to reappear in a winnable race given that saltonstall faced a tough task in a listed contest last week.Chelmsford 8.30
Smooth Ryder
Has been second and beaten favourite his last three runs.
Looks to have been found an easier race here.
Charlie Johnston brings him here for stables only runner and looks very hard to oppose.
Margaret Beaufort is a non runner and the free energy enhances his claims.
Win
Interestingly the defection of Margaret Beaufort leaves smooth Ryder even further away from the rest of the field at the weights and this is either going to be a huge positive or a huge negative to the selection. The horse who should be most pleased to see the back of Margaret Beaufort is sexy rexy who was very close to her in running last time out and also steps up in trip here.
Smooth Ryder also has collaborative form with the non runner and was 13 lengths to the good ahead of Margaret Beaufort but over 7furlongs here at Chelmsford.
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As I’ve said before working out the way the absence of a key horse will affect the runner is a work in progress. It works but which way it goes is open to interpretation and as I said pre race “sexy rexy” and that is the way it went.Back to the drawing board.
Dundalk 6.10
Had boola boola got in as third reserve, he’d have been top weight from stall 17.
That’s perfect as he’d have been drawn alongside Complete Fantasy.
As bottom weight Complete Fantasy is therefore linked to boola boola in two ways by draw and on the traverse by weight.
This also means the top weight remains emric who should be clear of the field raised 8lbs for a 2.5 lengths win last time.
Dundalk 6.10
Emric
Complete Fantasy
Reverse forecastComplete fantasy
Each way
Emric
Win.
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