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This is going to take an age to bed in.
So I’ve come somewhere quiet and off the beaten track to launch it.
I have some specific beliefs about racing and the dynamics surrounding it.
More about that later.
First selection.
NEMEAN LION
Win
Win
2.37Went close but always held in second place.
One other selection on a busy day.
Haydock 3.07
Chambard on a day of returning Cheltenham heroes.Chambard win.
Fortified bay
Each wayOff a seven hundred day plus absence has won off 500 days before and the lay off makes no difference to this veteran a massive price and one of these two may go closer than expected.
The thread will now settle down to a much more sedate and infrequent rate of tricasts and oddities as November passes into December….
ENJOY.
Ginger Mail
Was another qualifier and was posted in the soul selection thread as was short of time.
Unplaced in the last today.KEMPTON tricast
4.45The three top weights are cast adrift here by the non runners
Corinthian kid
Ben dikuk
TephiAdd pending appeal
Combination tricast
This is a nursery and there is an unwritten law in nurseries regards the top weightsSecond and third.
An obvious favourite ho hum.Going down late at Kempton for 8.20
Humanitarian
A qualifier
Along
With
ShashenkaThurles 1.32
Darrasso
Claios emery
Escaria ten
Combination trifecta1240
Market Rasen
Morandi
Casi crudi
Apologise
Comb trifectaWin APOLOGISE
Taking flat performance latest trainer aluded to decent showing in hurdle schooling trial.
Won in last month give it take a day and looks primed to win over hurdles.Trifecta landed £26.
Apologise a major disappointment but found little. Recovered to help land the trifecta not the first, but the first one since starting the thread.
Market Rasen 1.10
Nightboattocairo
Park hill
Chianti Classico
Combination trifectaWincanton 1.55
HARRY’S HOTTIE
Each way
Weighted directly below shut up Shirley who carries a penalty for wide margin win last time out.
Daryl Jacob rides and his last five rides all winners and his overall form impressive with numerous placings prior to that winning run.
No suprise if he can go in again here.
Strong chances here if good from last outing…..
Not a precise science but in line to benefit if rival cannot go through with effort this time around…..Harry’s hottie 3rd at 14/1
Shut up Shirley went through with effort but Harry’s hottie benefitted all the same. Belief in the theory is more important than proving it.Chelmsford 6pm
HOW IMPRESSIVE
Dayman
JILLY COOPER
EAGLE CREEK
Combination tricastHOW IMPRESSIVE
EAGLE CREEK
Both each way
Huge handicap many runners these four are clear top weights and drawn from stalls 3-98.30
Michaela’s Boy
Win
Is the class act here and is an Alexander qualifier.
Handicapper worried enough to bump her up 8 lbs for two length win at Newcastle.
All depends if she can break well as getting to the rail is pretty vital here.
Closely matched with democracy dilemma and form on earliest big run, linked to that horse who hampered the runner up that day.Two trifectas a winner and a 14/1 each way third yesterday.
Today’s not the best day huge distractions but here is the only Alexander selection of the day. This is based on form and ability rather than physics.
Dundalk
8.30
TA NA LA
Each way
Started out in a decent maiden at punchestown when sixth to river Thames.
The fifth won two races later and is a 85 rated horse now from 90.
TA NA LA began ratings at 69 and runs off lowest now.
Stepped up in trip on all weather debut ran too freely and hit front early passed and ended up third.
Will get closer now.Correction there is physics involved via the draw would have been drawn directly between two of the three non runners.
Potentially a double dose of free energy…..each way or to place?
Even at bookie odds you can potentially do better backing place only as a win bet.
Putting it all into a place means the win part of your each way is going to a better place than to the bookies.
TA NA LA was prominent and while always held showed massive improvement and was well backed late on. second @ 17/2 from 11/1.
Another successful selection for the system.
Quote
“This is going to take an age to bed in.”
No it isn’t. Alexander is up and running and looking forward to a decent tricast and more winners.Early bird here with a first international selection
Ascot 8.45 am
Australia 🦘🌏AMELIA’S JEWEL
Win
Has been making a very good impression in minor races over in Australia.
She has been putting in some taking displays in listed class races.
Has a very good jockey on board as she steps up to group 1 this morning. ( Peter carberry)
She is 5/6 only a second place blots her copybook. races off a featherweight with three year old and fillies allowance.
Has it all to do against hardened elders and boys here but is drawn in stall 1. Ideal stall in a group race is low preferably stall 3 or 4.
Irish bred aga Khan horse
The shortest price after 14/1 s this week.
But a real chance at around 2/1.And there we have it.
A group 1 winner within a few days of starting this project.
AMELIA’S JEWEL
Gives her trainer Simon Miller a maiden group 1 winner and who knows, maybe we’ll see her at Royal Ascot in the future.Nice to land a group one winner.
Back to the mundane.
Aintree
1145
Strong leader
Our Marty
Elaton
Pleasant man
Combination trifectaPleasant man returns from a 280 day break after bursting blood vessels when last seen.
Wind surgery has been recorded and improvement hoped for from Paul Nicholls.Jebil Ali to continue the international theme today.
Jebil Ali 1215
Mayedaan
Win
Will be likely hard to beat here with course win albeit in a weaker race.
Every opportunity to dominate and win here.Only second.
Fairyhouse 1242
FAN DE BLUES
Win
Is left clear at the top of the weights by the non runner.
Would be even better with a claimer on board and I’d prefer the excellent Jody Townend over Paul Townend or Patrick Mullins.
Fan De Blues is on a hat trick here and in the best of form this is very competitive and everyone is going hell for leather for the Xmas money at the moment but he just might have enough with the gap in the field to defy the rise in weights.
Every chance the non runner will give the much needed boost.
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