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Obviously, not with quite the same level of confidence as Walkon/Starluck I would take American Trilogy/Silk Hall against the field in the opener. Totally different test for the County Hurdle winner but the way he won at Cheltenham you would have to be wary of him. I backed Somersby at Cheltenham but I can see him being outpaced here and I don’t see McCoy as a particularly positive booking. Track and ground should suit Riverside Theatre but he looks several pounds short of this class.
Very moderate renewal of the staying novice chase. I think Siegemaster probably has at least as much ability as Herecomesthetruth it’s just a shame he can’t jump like him.
Shorties are not for me but no reason why Voy Por Ustedes shouldn’t follow up last year’s win. He was probably below par at Cheltenham but still chased home a better horse than Nacarat.
Fortunately didn’t back him but a little disappointed Sa Suffit doesn’t run. Ping Pong Sivola and The Sawyer should both go well from the front but I have a feeling they may set the race up for a stalker like Gwanako. Big doubt for me about New Little Bric reproducing his last run.
The staying novice is probably the most interesting race of the day. Karabak is the class act but he jumped so badly at Cheltenham I couldn’t have him at a short price even over a longer trip. I think Weapons Amnesty idled in front at Cheltenham and he looks the best each-way alternative.
At first glance Captain Americo looks to have a first rate chance in the handicap hurdle. Unfortunately, he is ridden by a second rate jockey. I don’t think I have ever seen Grant have a blemish free round on any horse. However, I note he is riding Bible Lord in the Topham.
One or two horses clearly laid out for the bumper. I would go with the Kiely pair, Candy Creek has the far superior form and jockey but Liss Na Trinti is the best bred in the race and should improve for the better surface.
A very diffiicult day during which, I will be leaving most races alone.
I like Irish Raptor in the topham despite him being a fair way out of the handicap so i’ll be having a few quid e/w on him. I do think the current price is a bit stingy though!
11/2 about Red Maloney in the first will do me- his Flat speed may well prove decisive.
Am backing Shining Gale and Killyglen in the novice chase, with Massini’s Maguire the lay of the day.
Won’t be able to resist double-figure quotes about Schindler’s Hunt in the Melling
Have backed a few in the Topham- Ping Pong, Oodachee, Irish Raptor and Milan Deux Mille, who jumped well out in front in last year’s National- 66/1 is tasty.
Very keen on Weapon’s Amnesty in the staying novice hurdle- looks to just do enough, Karabak a doubt to stay the trip.
May back a few lightweights in the 3m handicap hurdle including Piraya, who has ability hidden somewhere.I can offer encouragement from the rider for Irish Raptor – during a preview on Tuesday evening, he seemed more excited about him than anything else he was booked to ride during the meeting.
I shall be laying American Trilogy (flattered by the run of the race last time) and Herecomesthetruth (doesn’t have enough in hand of Massinis or Shining Gale to justify such a short price, especially in such a stamina test).
I was expecting to be a layer of Voy Por Ustedes earlier in the week, but he’s drifted to an attractive price now and his stable looks in much better form than that of Tidal Bay – the Johnson runners yesterday offered no encouragement.
And I can’t see why Weapons Amnesty is as big as 11/2 in places, as he had plenty in hand at Cheltenham, much more than the margin of victory suggests. A long line of horses like Karabak have tried to win this after being placed in the shorter race at Cheltenham and all have failed, so Weapons Amnesty looks a cracking price.
2m4f on a flat track on decent ground is exactly what Briareus wants, and I think he is the standout bet in the Melling Chase at 25/1 with Stan James.
My line for the Melling Chase is:
VPU 2.8
Nacarat 4.3
Tidal Bay 8.2So as things stand just a small edge to be had on Nacarat and I’ve invested half-stake at 4.65 (gross). Keen on unexposed horses with winning form in top handicaps when stepped up into graded comapany. Running style ideal for this track and jockey, trainer in form, doesn’t have much to find with VPU on a literal on-the-figures interpretation of his RP Chase form, has a willing attitude.
VPU needs no ‘analysis’ and is a solid fav.
Taken the view that Tidal Bay should put this season down to experience and will relish a summer at grass, though he does ‘worry’ me back at Aintree.
None of the rags appeal, will be quite happy to back VPU too should he drift to my odds, won’t back TB should he drift.
I had an awful day yesterday (of Alan King’s 3 runners I backed Ouzbeck – that type of day) and I don’t know if my head is addled because of it but I can’t make sense of any of the races today!
Having said that, Schindlers Hunt seems to be back to something approaching his best form and, as carvillshill said earlier, a double figure price is very tempting each-way.
Herecomesthetruth must have a massive chance in the 2.35. Trip and ground no problem and will probably be left blaze off ahead with no obvious challenger to take him on. Massini’s has stamina doubts, he was outstayed over a flat 3m at Kempton and Shining Gale wont like this watered dead ground. 2/1 now is generous, he will probably shorten.
I’m not so sure about VPU today. I think that he’s feeling the effects of a long hard season has some mentioned above. The Tidal Bay ‘public schooling’ will have fetched him on a bundle I imagine – especially with the interrupted prep he had for Cheltenham. Plus, he absolutely has shown top quality form at previous Aintree Festivals.
The Novice Hurdles I can’t work out today. There are so many conflicting pieces of form on offer, especially in the opener. American Trilogy wins pulling a cart in The County. Red Moloney runs out of gas up the Cheltenham hill and is outstayed by Somersby, but I fancy that form to be reversed on a flatter track. Silk Hall and El Dancer are two other potential improvers.
The Sefton, I believe, revolves around whether Karabak stays or not, and I think that he will. Weapons Amnesty is a stone cold e/w play at 11/2 though.
2pts win Tidal Bay
3pts win Red Moloney
2pts e/w Weapons Amnesty.The person who said to back Lord Jay Jay ew yesterday
said to back Moncadou today. No chance whatsoever, but will have a small ew just in case!
The little advertised 1830 interests me
4/5 Cat’nDog
7/4 Jake the Snake
3/1 The Tulloch Tempest
A tightly grouped bunch with the last two in the tissue
springing from the same stable. Cat’nDog is expected
to make the running with the other two a few millimetres
behindThe beast of Bagnolet
Her long brown legs strutted below the dress
she called the wide
and out of the Gard Du Nord
with a few ogle eyed migrant hopefuls
rushing in pursuit
shouting to each other
that they had found tent cityI normally find a few against the field but in general I’m sturggling for my prices and it’s looks as if I’m relying on Nozic.
I’m happy to take on American Trilogy with Somersby in the first, though American Trilogy is drifting and would become a bet at 4.6.
I’ve got 93.5 about Time For Rupert in the 4.55 and those odds might look a little generous after the race. I’m also on Star Of Angels, Kawagino and Gunner Jack in the same race.
Red Moloney – another Howard Johnson runner stopping to nothing up the straight at Aintree. Hard to fancy anything he’s running at present.
Quality ride by Elsworth there. Really got El Dancer home nicely. Does he have a ride in the National?
Answers on a postcard to Mr C. Egerton.
Could I have some Branston pickle please?
To go with my large slice of humble pie re Howard Johnson.
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