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Might sound negative but I would advise not going overboard with what looks a very difficult card.
The first race is typical of the difference between Aintree and Cheltenham. Big Bucks was freely available at around 6/1 a few weeks ago do you wade in now at around 1/1? He looks the best short one of the day to me and should win but do you want to risk a possible heavy loss on the opening race of the meeting? I wouldn’t want to play catch-up tomorrow.
The next race looks the most punter friendly. I can’t see beyond Starluck and Walkon. None of the others look good enough and it is unlikely both market leaders will fail to give their running.
Denman looks less solid than Big Bucks but unfortunately there is no obvious each-way bet.
Agus A Vic looks different class but do you want to take 4/1 over these fences?
The next race looks like a bookmakers paradise. There doesn’t look as if there is any obvious improver and hard to believe you could back anyof these with a degree of confidence.
On the evidence of his Cheltenham run Chapoturgeon will be very hard to beat if he jumps well.
A minefield of a handicap to finish. Sunnyhillboy would be favourite if he hadn’t run at Cheltenham but can you forgive such a shocking performance? Carrickboy is another who has to bounce back from two poor performances but he should be suited by track and ground.
Good luck
I’ve actually got my betting slip from Cheltenham for Carrickboy in front of me now; using it as a coaster [have to find a use for them]…could this be a sign? Horses mentioned last night at the preview were Locksmith, Lord Jay Jay, Albertas Run and Planet of Sound.
Agus A Vic is in a different class to these – he’s top rated on OR’s by about 11lb’s. Would have won at Cheltenham IMO had they taken that route but been lined up for this since Leopardstown – if he jumps he’ll win.
I’ve been bitten before by this "I’ll look for value rather than the obvious" over the National fences and sometimes you just got to bite the bullet and realse that if he’s 11lb clear on the ratings, in good form and off levels over the Mildmay course he’d be a 10/11 shot.
Big Bucks in the first race is the best horse of the stayes but Mighty Man is a CD specialist but he does have the problem of second run off a long lay off.
For me i think Faasel who has not run since pulling up in the Peter Marsh has been saved for this race in which he was 2nd last year and at 50-1 is a massive price and the each way bet of alltime.
Walkon will be backed blind by the natives as it is part of that awful song which is sung by that dreadful set of supporters from a team which make me throw up if i typed it but you know who i mean,
The penny is dropping for Hebridean who was 3rd in last years Voltigeur at Goodwood and will like this track and who knows maybe Paul Nicholls may run him on the flat if he still shows any ability.
Denman in the Bowl looks to be their but many things have happened and it is a case of paddock inspection to see how he has come out of his run in the Gold Cup but on paper this is a mere stroll round to show off his ability.
Albertas Run at 12-1 is an ok EW bet and if Mr O’Bama and his huge staff are tuning in and fancy a flutter then Air Force One could be interesting at 20s although i dont think he is up to this Grade.
In the Fox Hunters Agus A Vic is the main hope of Ireland and a classy horse but this track needs CD form from previous and Sonovafushi and Christy Beamish know the time of day around Aintree and will go well.
The fences come thick and fast in the Red Rum Chase and Oh Crick is trying to follow up his Grand Annual win with another and is still improving and will be at the shake up but this is a tricky race and for me it might be a case of Brew time.
The new Grade 2 Manifesto looks ok and Chaptoturgeon is bidding to follow up his Jewson win and looks to have a fair chance, Planet of Sound would be even shorter if this was being run at Newbury but the course will suit and Calgary Bay for Henrietta Knight will be better for this trip as she was being plain stupid running him in the Arkle.
The finale looks tricky but Mumbles Head ran well and had a good dust of the cobwebs at Uttoxeter on Mids National day over 2m6f and is fair EW at 25s, David Pipes The Package was 2nd behind New Little Bric at Newbury a few weeks back and was also 2nd behind Punchestowns over hurdles as a novice and could also run well.
All in all some good racing to look forward to and i cannot wait to get on track for some brilliant sport.
I am looking forward to Starluck reversing the form with Walkon!
Albertas run winning the Bowl and Arcalis running over 21/2m! That would be a nice start to the meeting! Add Jered, and Darkness on Saturday, then all i need is my banker of the meeting to win on Friday;- RED MOLONEY!!Hard to look beyond Big Buck’s in the 3 miler but too short for me.
Really fancy Walkon to confirm form with the "wise guy" Aintree horse Starluck- if I can get 3/1 I’ll be playing big each-way.
Have backed Madison and Albertas each way in the hope The Tank disappoints- can’t see him liking this track too much. This race has a history of shocks.
Looking forward to seeing McEvoy blazing a trail in the Foxhunter’s- a classic back-to-lay proposition.
Fancy Distant Thunder to at least be placed. Toyed with last year’s hero Christy- does anyone know much about his jockey? Agus A Vic a bit inexperienced for this test.I’m giving Valain a chance to atone for a poor run in the Grand Annual in the Red Rum and have also snapped up 20-1 I’m So Lucky, most overpriced horse of the day IMO.
Chapoturgeon looked a machine at Chelt but they’re not giving away much at 7/4. May well back Tartak each-way.
Two names to conjure with in the last- Frontier Dancer and Mumbles Head.
I’m giving Valain a chance to atone for a poor run in the Grand Annual
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Im right with you on that one Carvs, think he has everything right this time. Celtenham was gd-sft the day he ran in the grand annual and round cheltenham that was always going to test his stamina a bit, think he has everything perfect this time and has a cracking chance. Also quite like Poquelin and Leslingtaylor. ASLO worth noting in that race is that Vinmix du bessy was well supported ahead of the Grand Annual but ended up missing it and coming here instead. Pasco may too go well on this better ground but suspect he is high enough in the weights and should think others may have more improvement.
Hebridean looks a cracking bet at 10-3 with Paddy Power to smash the lot of them in the Anniversary, On everything Ive seen he’ll be very hard to beat. If they go fast First Avenue may surpirse a few with a decent run at 25-1, and dont think we’ve seen the best of Ski Sunday if they go slow. I personally expect Starluck to reverse form with Walkon.
Eleazar in the last also look a cracking bet (only paddy power have as yet priced up with 11s), think he is going places, missed cheltenham to come here and I have a sneaking suspicion this horse is still well in, and looks to have it all in his favour. Market confidence isnt a necessity as drifted and won last time out.
Fancy Fair Along in the first, I was one of the many of us who thought he would go well at cheltenham, but IMO the ground on the thursday was the worst it was all week, and this time he should have much more up his street for a good run. Big Bucks is obviously the one to beat on all known form.
Deep Purple @ 14-1 looks a cracking price, have seen nothing to suggest he isnt up to winning this and has a lot in his favour for to have a crack. Gauvain is capable of surprising at 20s aswell IMO.
For me Big Bucks (like a lot of you have said) is the class horse of the day. I was hoping there would be some 6/4 somewhere but, alas, that isnt the case.
With Mighty Mans good run 5th behind Big Bucks 3 weeks ago I’ve been tempted to take a bit of a gamble on him at 9/2. For all that I’ve talked up Big Bucks and have backed him before I keep going back to how much he made me shite myself on New Years Day when Dont Push It was coming up the hill strong. I wonder if he’s prone to a course specialist like Mighty Man.
Later in the day Big Earned Fran runs again. For this horse to be anywhere 9/1 on a flat track is a tragedy. Andrew McNamara is the only jockey to ever ride this horse to perfection and the fact he’s back on for the final race of the day is a massive plus for me. Sunnyhillboy will go better than last time and these two will fight out the finish
In the feature race, I’m on Albertas Run. This is only the 2nd time this season this horse has got his ground and as much as Denman is the best horse in the race i’m not one to back at those prices. Exotic Dancer was closing on him in the closing furlong of the Gold Cup and whilst Exotic Dancer might look like the one to beat Denman the ground sways it for me with AR. 12/1 is massive
Agus A Vic looks like the bet of the day for me, oh, and the novice two miler is quite possibly the most competitive race of the day. Hebridean might very well be suited here but what did he actually beat in the Adonis? Starluck will love this flat track and wont come off the bridle until the last fence. It’s a shame Master of Arts isnt here for this
In the 2 and a half miler, Calgary Bay needs to win this more than the others and has a big reputation to live up to, he has to thwart those Cheltenham memories too. He looked the perfect 2 and a half miler on New Years Day and with McCoy on board i’m very confident. The only worry is that he’s best round Cheltenham and showed nothing near his best at the Festival…..at 7/1 im happy to take a gamble that he’s a top quality horse though.
Finally, Poquelin got no race at all at Cheltenham and probably shouldve been in the frame there. Oh Crick had a massive pull in the weights that day too on their previous match up. With just 1lb between Oh Crick and Poquelin this time around I’m hoping Poquelin will turn around the form again. Nothing else worries me in that race if I;m honest.
IMO Big Eared Fran was massively suited to the early snails pace when he won at sandown, and although he has a chance here, he is up 10lbs since then, and up 4lbs since he was well held at cheltenham.
Write off Eleazar at your peril, think he looks the type who may just be cruising through handicap company en route to better things. Thornton booked too.
Hebridean might very well be suited here but what did he actually beat in the Adonis? Starluck will love this flat track and wont come off the bridle until the last fence.
Hebridean just cruised past Saticon, who went on to be a strong finishing third with a big weight in the Fred Winter. Admittedly I dont know who will come out on top between him and starluck tomorrow. I think Heb will confirm flat form with Starluck, and give him another doing.
This course really suits front runners so…..
If Exotic Dancer is held up I’ll be place laying him at 1.6
Our Vic may well get an uncontested lead and 5/1 the place looks value with some of the 40 to win as well.
No reason why the front running Marodima and L’Oriet Express cant go well in the Red Rum at big prices.
Deep Purple is another who may get a handy lead and in an 8 runner race has place claims at 11/2.
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On a tricky day, where what the CoC sees as ‘safe’ ground is an unknown quantity until after the 1st race, Chapoturgeon looks the safest bet of the day and 7/4+ looks fairly generous to my eyes.
Big Eared Fran should at least make the first 4 in the last.Quite content take on Denman at 2.0 with Exotic Dancer at 5.0
A track unlikely to play to Denman’s strengths, particularly on what I suspect may be top-of-the-ground.
Most of the field have questions to answer, ED has none having run as well as ever this year and his best piece of form was over CD. So looking forward to what will hopefully be, in all likelihood, something of a swansong
Madison du Berlais back on a sharp track is of interest. if only to provide more clues as to the true worth of his Kempton win, which at the moment remains perplexing
This course really suits front runners so…..
If Exotic Dancer is held up I’ll be place laying him at 1.6
Our Vic may well get an uncontested lead and 5/1 the place looks value with some of the 40 to win as well.
No reason why the front running Marodima and L’Oriet Express cant go well in the Red Rum at big prices.
Deep Purple is another who may get a handy lead and in an 8 runner race has place claims at 11/2.You’re right on the chase tracks CR, but as AP pointed out some years ago, the hurdles track is the opposite- very hard to make all up that long straight.
Thanks carvills, should have mentioned the bias exists on the chase course, its a different story on the hurdles course as you rightly point out.
If Big Bucks hadn’t switched to hurdles, Punchestowns would have completed a rare treble of Long Walk, Cleeve and Wordl Hurdle wins, the last named by at least 15 lengths. He’d be hailed as a superstar on that evidence, so how good is Big Bucks? For those that don’t mind betting odds on, 4/5 is generous.
How Starluck can be the same or shorter price than Walkon is a mystery to me. The idea that Starluck will do better on this track seems widespread, but where’s the evidence? If Aintree is better for ‘speed’ horses, how did Detroit City and Katchit win here after Cheltenham? Perhaps they were just the best horse in the race, which is how I view Walkon. He should be 6/4, not 11/4.
That’s not to say that Starluck can’t win, just that imo the prices are wrong.
Chapoturgeon was one of three miracle improvers from the Nicholls team at Cheltenham ( with American Trilogy and Denman) and that was some transformation from the dismal animal beaten 17L by Araldur at Warwick. From a handicap off 135 to a top class Graded race is a big jump and I reckon he’s too short against the Arkle horses. Tartak looks rock solid each way back to this trip.
The striking thing about the Red Rum chase is the number of front runners. Combine that with Aintree’s stiff fences and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a few of those up with the pace come to grief early on. In those circumstances I suppose I’m looking for something held up right at the back of the field early on to avoid the likely carnage up front.
My three against the field would be:
Leslingtaylor
Tramantano
Vinmix De BessyI’ll probably have whittled that list down to one of the two losers by race time
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