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Some thoughts on todays racing:-
Lingfield
2.10 Interesting novice hurdle where the favs chance looks over-rated to me, COUNTING HOUSE ran a decent race when recently showing up on the flat,his 2nd at Sandown reads ok too,however,he`s still a maiden under both codes and his 78 Flat rating is probably as good as he his, MEXICAN BOB comes from a decent stable but he looks limited, his 67flat rating sums him up,KYLES PRINCE by “In the wings“ should enjoy these conditions,he looks an hurdling type and at the current 12,0 this 79 rated flat horse looks decent value,lack of a recent run is unlikely to be of a concern,IMPERIAL HARRY could do better no hurdling,however,more interesting is the David Pipe trained SERGEHEYEV, he goes well fresh and is proven on the ground,if he can translate bumper form into hurdles he should be alright.
Suggestion:
Lay Counting house (3,4) and Mexican Bob (6,4) combined price is 2,22
2.30 HENNESSY is stoutly bred, proven in the conditions so despite his penalty i prefer him to the Twiston runner BALI BOY, whilst the latter should improve on his debut i doubt the sticky going will help his jumping and that is a major concern, this horse isn`t really a hurdler in any case,he will be better next year with experience and fences!!
Bet Hennessy at odds 3.05
3.00 Novice chases at this time of the year don`t take much winning , all the same GRENFELL shouldn`t be trading at odds on, i doubt he will come on much for re-appearance, blinkers first time are a worry and the fact remains he hasn`t won since his bumper debut which is some 2.5 years ago, ENGLISH JIM and JUNCTIONTWENTYFOUR should put up a fight, the latter ran really well lto despite pulling,withn the freshness out of him and the step up in trip sure to suit the current 9.0 is begging to be taken!!
Lay Grenfell 1.91
Back JUNTIONTWENTYFOUR 9.03.35 SPINNING COIN has a decent mark,he goes on any ground and the step up in trip will help him find a better rhythm, Choc is a sound booking.
Bet SPINNING COIN 5.0
4.10 ROWDY YEATS (Nap) at Evens and above is a gift, this horse is a natural jumper, his penalty for a recent win is partly offset by a 3lb claim,the validility of his opponents are shaky to say the least, JUPON VERT prefers coming 2nd , in fact the whole field is a motley crew outside the jolly, ROWDYS front running style should be suited by this two mile, their are less chance for accidents when you are out of harms way, he as to be a strong reccommendation if we can trade above evens!!
Bet ROWDY YEATS
Wincanton
2.20 ROYAL RATIONALE was a 81+ rated 9 Furlong horse on the flat so of course you have to worry about stamina for this game,however,Wincanton is an easy two miles, the going is in his favour and the opposition amounts to very little, the only feasible opponent is the 63 flat rated SUMMER OF LOVE, as a filly she receives 7lb, unlike the Pipe runner she isn`t progressive and needs further in any case, i will be very disappointed if the jolly doesnt win this with something to spare.
Bet ROYAL RATIONALE (10-11) in a double with ROWDY YEATS (Evens) id f you prefer decent odds
4.35 LUSAKO DU PEMBO is a difficult horse to win with, his win record is 2/33 with 10 seconds, he`s been fav more times than i`ve had hot dinners,all in all he`s a layers dream especially at current odds of 2,24 , at first sight opposition is thin on the ground but the lazy BLAZE AHEAD should be suited by Mr McCoy and GUMLEY GALE is feasibly h`capped, with all said and done the jolly is likely to beat himself and people punting him at a short price should certainly be entertained by us kindly accepting their bets, in fact they should probably be certified and be taken off by the men in white coats!!
Lay Lusako du Pembo
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