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5.30
LADY LAVINA
Win
Is up against a surprisingly small but string field in first start for Charlie Johnston.
Has a 170 day break to overcome but is 112 on the all weather.
Handicap debut can be excused as it was under a penalty after winning a stakes race. Back to form when last seen and likely to try and make all.
Odds on kings gem comes alone from Newmarket for George Boughey and looks the danger.
Kings gem reverse forecast with lady LAVINA6.30
Sir John Monash
Each way
Had excuses both times up against decent rivals slowly away latest and denied a clear run the time before.
Purchased by Joseph O’Brien for 160k as a yearling but was unraced.
**************************************
Ran very well but up against a derby entrant and runner related to listed winners.
Made fourth.8pm
Newcastle
ZEGOS SURPRISE
Win
Weighted to turn around hd defeat by blackcurrant last time.
Would better off in handicaps but good chance here on a lowly mark.
Upped ten pounds for win on heavy ground at Navan and running on a rating 20lbs lower now.
Likely strong effort on second run for yard.
Subsequent winners and placed runners in behind that day. Win in Ireland only placed effort in career prior to English debut run, so was clearly prepared for the improved showing.**********************************************
ENRAGE the one winner.4.30
TauntonDANCING ON THE EDGE
Win
Third to a good winner barrier peaks last time.
Raised a couple of pounds and steps up in journey.
Runner up has won twice since on here. (lone star)
SHANTOU SUNSET
Place
Has gone off the boil since winning last may on last run for Philip Hobbs.
Has encountered gs soft heavy ground each run since joining this stable and now drops in grade and falls below last winning mark on good ground.Southwell 4.55
KRONA
Was an impressive winner stepping up in trip at Kempton last week.
Shouldn’t be troubled by the raise in weight.
Looked a very good horse although may have been flattered by an average field of rivals, including a favourite stepping up three furlongs this opposition get weight and look a little better… Either way he’s a good horse
FOINIX gets nearly a stone with the jockeys claim and won going away last time.This may be closer than expected.
Winning distance any runner.
1.5 Lengths to 3.75 Lengths inclusive
6/4
Under 1.5 lengths 7/4This bet should have been expressed as OVER 3.75 lengths @ 7/4
And UNDER 1.5 Lengths @ 6/4
luckily I’ve expressed it correctly on the bet slip….Southwell 6pn.
Both SOUTHWOLD and BIG NARSTIE look up to winning this race.
Both win6.30
SouthwellBungleInthejungle
Offspring SEAGRAVE FOX 🦊
Win.
Looks to build on a good win last time out.
Was staying on and just held off challenger oh so chic.
Looks likely to stay further but could improve on this surface having kept good company over shorter trips last year.
Improvement necessary here with several including greavsie and trojan spirit breathing down his neck and he did only just win in a headbobber last time.7pnm
Elvenia
Win
Looks to make a good impression having won at newcastle on debut before running well at Royal Ascot.
Has to carry a penalty which is often these good runner’s undoing.
MEDICI CHAPEL
Each way
Cheverley park runner from an in form yard among the winners.
Can follow up a good recent run by getting closest.8pm
ROSE BANDIT
And
MEHMO
Both win
MR GINJA NINJA
Small win
Both have decent claims on form.
Rb had no chance last time in a race won by horses who’d all met Kraken Power independently and was riding out a penalty. (Canzonne,imperial Khan…)
Both horses have form behind level up third yesterday but rose bandit narrowly beat yesterday’s winner enraged.
I don’t normally put three up these days but a big big outsider is the maiden
Mr GINJA NINJA who is drawn on the draw data to go well so a very small win on him.All out of the running.
8.30
SouthwellTHEFASTANDTHECURIOUS
Each way**********************************************
Round up…
MEDICI CHAPEL 15/2
THEFASTANDTHECURIOUS 10/1
Both third each way
Winners
SEAGRAVE FOX 🦊
SOUTHWOLD ( impressive staying performance)
Krona winning distance was typed out incorrectly so can’t count as a winner.
Thefastandthecurious was an eyecatcher. Given a very wide and late run. Looks very likely to strike in the near future. Well timed run which may well have paid dividends in a differently paced race.Punchestown 1.05
An unusually wide open maiden hurdle.
Some very talented runners take up their places here.
I’ve touched on Sam Ewing’s remarkable low strike rate for Gordon Elliott in the soul selection.
This run may come to an end soon following a good third in the national trial at the weekend.
He has a real chance to score here on
I AM FORTUNATA
Win
Close to hunters yarn on recent hurdle run and a taking bumper winner. Has to carry a penalty but may well be good enough.
Meritorious is an ex John Gosden runner event flat rating and one win in England has had a number of runs for John McConnell and will go well here.Meritorious ran well for his yard finishing third at 100/1.
I am fortunata was leading and going well when Sam Ewing’s mount seemed to object to the tack and ran out as irons and legs flew in all directions.4.30
Newcastle
SURE SPIRIT
win
It won’t have been lost on sir mark Prescott that class member was second yesterday to Amy Santiago. well ahead when they met recently was sure spirit who was impeded on the first bend by glittering lights the winner.
SURE SPIRIT would certainly have got closer to the Godolphin winner who was finishing first at the fifth attempt.Sure spirit ran in well but had no chance with ONIGHT the easy winner.
4.45
Bumper
MORO ROCK
Each way
Backed off the boards for the concluding bumper unraced but very well related to winners and trip should suit.
Harry Bannister rides.Newcastle 5.05
HOW BIZARRE
Win
Often finds little but has been well supported to improve recently and did well last time just not seeing out the mile. Obvious chance dropped back to below a mile.
THAYAAR
Place
Has not won for over two years but talented and perhaps recent wins surgery will assist.
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