- This topic has 40 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
@Timeform1948 have posed the question on Twitter, so who wins ?
Weights based on peak Timeform Ratings
Sprinter Sacre (192) 11-12
Moscow Flyer (184) 11-04
Azertyuiop (182) 11-02
Master Minded (182) 11-02
Well Chief (182) 11-02
Flagship Uberalles (175) 10-09
Sizing Europe (172) 10-06
Twist Magic (168) 10-02Moscow Flyer. More consistent and finds more under pressure than the others. That said, after Sprinter Sacre posted his "best rating" there was still a "p" for improvement likely. So had he not had health problems was probably capable of better than his "192" rating. ie Is the best handicapped of them all despite top weight.
Value Is EverythingSit on the fence, wait until the jockey bookings. See which one Ruby opts for – Master Minded, Azertyuiop or Twist Magic. Also would be interested to see which one Geraghty rides – Sprinter Sacre or Moscow Flyer and then wonder why in hell Kauto Star isn’t in the race
and then wonder why in hell Kauto Star isn’t in the race
Probably because Kauto was not a specialist 2 miler and did not produce his best rating at 2 miles (can not be easily handicapped). Improved at longer trips after he’d won the Tingle Creek and never went back to the minimum trip. So there’s no knowing just how good (or how much worse) Kauto might have been in his pomp back at 2m than he was at 3m.
Value Is EverythingOK so after getting over the sulk of KS not been qualified to run, I would have to seriously consider MF by looking at his form figures. If he has won his last 2 then there is a good chance that he will unseat/fall. MM would definitely be worth considering especially if he can run up to his 2008 CC form. Whilst TM would also be worth considering due to his weight and that he loved Sandown to bits. Woe betide if they gave him a soft lead.
Maybe you could do a book Ginge
I remember being at Sandown when Moscow Flyer beat Azertyuiop and Well Chief and don’t think I’ve ever heard such a noise from the cheering crowd it was deafening. That’s my vote
and then wonder why in hell Kauto Star isn’t in the race
Probably because Kauto was not a specialist 2 miler and did not produce his best rating at 2 miles (can not be easily handicapped). Improved at longer trips after he’d won the Tingle Creek and never went back to the minimum trip. So there’s no knowing just how good (or how much worse) Kauto might have been in his pomp back at 2m than he was at 3m.
Presumably that reason rules out Desert Orchid too….and what about Tingle Creek himself? He won the race before it was renamed in his honour.
Watch the 08 CC and tell me anything could give MM 10lb and a beating that day.
You may well be right PC, I remember it well having backed MM ante-post. However, this is about a Fantasy Tingle Creek at Sandown and his form wasn’t as good there.
Value Is Everythingand then wonder why in hell Kauto Star isn’t in the race
Probably because Kauto was not a specialist 2 miler and did not produce his best rating at 2 miles (can not be easily handicapped). Improved at longer trips after he’d won the Tingle Creek and never went back to the minimum trip. So there’s no knowing just how good (or how much worse) Kauto might have been in his pomp back at 2m than he was at 3m.
Presumably that reason rules out Desert Orchid too….and what about Tingle Creek himself? He won the race before it was renamed in his honour.
I’ve just looked up Kauto Star’s best Timeform Performance Rating for 2 miles is only 166+. I don’t know if Timeform added some more to his Master Rating immediately afterwards for winning so easily… Before improving over many subsequent seasons to a best Performance Rating of 188+, upped for ease of victory to a Master rating of 191 at Kempton’s 3m. Once putting up a much better performance at 3m was never asked to run at 2m again. So practically impossible to judge how good Kauto Star was at the minimum trip. The handicapper would need to give him 191 despite the big difference in form.
Desert Orchid did run at 2m at least once in most, if not all seasons he raced. Is a little bit more difficult to assertain his best 2m rating, but I’ve worked out using Chasers And Hurdlers it could be 182, achieved more than once, which is 5 lbs lower than his best over further. Though he’d certainly love the right-handed track and battle to the finish.
Value Is EverythingWatch the 08 CC and tell me anything could give MM 10lb and a beating that day.
Really? In hindsight, that race looks like an absolute joke. I’m not sure Master Minded (even that day) would have have been able to GET 10lbs from Moscow Flyer, Sprinter Sacre, Azertyuiop and the rest.
Look at the race – it means nothing. Sure, Voy Por Ustedes was the reigning champ, but he was on the downgrade. In an angry outburst after moving Voy Por Ustedes from Alan King to Nicky Henderson, Sir Robert Ogden revealed the findings of his vet team: VPU had been racing for King with a quite serious back problem for over a year, including the 2008 Champion Chase. Can beating a horse in that sort of shape possible mean anything at all?
Further back we had what? Twist Magic hated Cheltenham, Fair Along needed over three miles by that time, Mansony was never at the races. How does this win put Master Minded up in the pantheon of greatness? Beating an injured horse and a hopelessly outpaced stayer doesn’t cut it for me.
I’d go for Moscow Flyer in the fantasy race. He was never the kind of horse to win by much, but always fended off the top class horses in a way that hinted he had more to give. I think he’d get Sprinter Sacre off the bridle and test the big horse’s suspect breathing.
Watch the 08 CC and tell me anything could give MM 10lb and a beating that day.
Really? In hindsight, that race looks like an absolute joke. I’m not sure Master Minded (even that day) would have have been able to GET 10lbs from Moscow Flyer, Sprinter Sacre, Azertyuiop and the rest.
Look at the race – it means nothing. Sure, Voy Por Ustedes was the reigning champ, but he was on the downgrade. In an angry outburst after moving Voy Por Ustedes from Alan King to Nicky Henderson, Sir Robert Ogden revealed the findings of his vet team: VPU had been racing for King with a quite serious back problem for over a year, including the 2008 Champion Chase. Can beating a horse in that sort of shape possible mean anything at all?
Further back we had what? Twist Magic hated Cheltenham, Fair Along needed over three miles by that time, Mansony was never at the races. How does this win put Master Minded up in the pantheon of greatness? Beating an injured horse and a hopelessly outpaced stayer doesn’t cut it for me.
I’d go for Moscow Flyer in the fantasy race. He was never the kind of horse to win by much, but always fended off the top class horses in a way that hinted he had more to give. I think he’d get Sprinter Sacre off the bridle and test the big horse’s suspect breathing.
In MM’s defence TYF, that’s not true. Voy Por was not
"on the downgrade"
at that time. Indeed, VPU’s Timeform
170
at Aintree is rated his very best performance, that coming only a
few weeks
after the 2nd to Master Minded in the Champion. So hardly an
"injured horse"
. Don’t take too much notice of what disgruntled owners say.
A win is not neccessarily as good as a 2nd either, VPU only beat Dempsey
1 1/2
lengths with 5 back to River City (what else have those two done) in a poor Champion Chase the previous year which earned a rating of just
163
in Chasers And Hurdlers.
However, it is true that VPU was not at his best when following home Master Minded at Cheltenham. It’s possible he paid for trying to match the winner for as long as he did. Timeform Performance rating of just
160
, 4 lbs less than when 2nd to the same horse at Newbury (
164
) on his previous start. Newbury rating being a pound more than his best of the previous year; some
"injury"
this is…
So had Timeform rated VPU as actually running to form they could have rated Master Minded
more
than the
179
they gave him…
Same can be said of Fair Along, his rating that day of143
some way short of his best chase rating of
151
. It’s also unfair (imo) to suggest he needed further at that stage, because Fair Along had only ran one race over as far as 2m4f by then. And that not as good as the 151, once put up at 2m and once 2m2f110y. However, it’s true he ran a strange race, dropping himself out and then running past beaten horses for 3rd…
But Master Minded did not just beat these two horses, he pulverised them by
19
lengths and
16
without coming under serious pressure…
Or to put it another way…
You don’t need to rate VPU or Fair Along as running to their best to rate Master Minded’s performance 179/very highly.
Also: Sprinter Sacre did not have "suspect breathing" when racing at his best.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.