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Yup, annoying, Gerald, but it can’t have come as a shock. At least one of the main 3 was gonna get injured. Should be thankful he was at Godolphin tbh, otherwise I may have backed him for a lot more than I did.
I’ve got Elusive Pimpernel between 24s and 29s and the more I think about it and look at the field, the more I believe he’s the winner. He’s foaled in the mid-February period (the amount of good horses foaled in this period is ridiculous) and meets every trend bar the sire having not won a Group/Grade 1. My slight concern is that John Dunlop hasn’t had a Group 1 winner in yonks.
Some intresting horses in Ireland this week.I am waiting for Stunning View.2L behind Kingsfort but was 4L in front of Viscount Nelson who meets him again on sunday.
And there is a fillies race where for me it be intresting to see how Alsawa does.As that horse got beat by my oaks tip Sagacious
And You be Mine is racing on sunday as well.
Desperate Betting race’s tomoro….as the markets are made by AOB runners. Take your pen and your notebook and stick to that as betting is insane.
Black Quartz is the most exciting horse tomoro for me…..gave a 17lb to 90 rated horse last time
- Total Posts 17716
Wallace, heres my National Investigation from last year, I have been waiting 6 months to see Black Quartz! wish I could get over to Ireland to grab myself a picture of him.
• Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish National 7 times
• The average winning price is 15-2
• The averages runs before winning the National is 2.75
• 70% of National winners have won previously on the ground they raced on the day.
• 70% of National winners had previous group experience.
• 50% of National winners had already won a group race.
• Only 25% of Favourites don’t place in the National.Let’s start with the last 9 winners and how they fare on speed ratings, I’ll start by giving a little guide to what the numbers translate to;
G1 – 100
G2 – 98.5
G3 – 97Now be aware that you might see a two year old record a figure of 97 even in the event of winning a Group 1; well you would be right to question what’s happening but remember the guidelines above are for an all age group race where there are now allowances involved, when rating the times you have to give allowance to 2yo and 3yo so invariable it’s a tougher task to reach the experienced tougher heights of a genuine all age G1 at jus the age of 2 years old but you’ll see horses throughout this piece that undoubtedly punch below and above their weight at 2 years old this in my opinion is down to how advanced they are physically and mentally.
Previous 9 Winners
Beckett (2000) 91.53
Soft: Mid DivisionHawk Wing (2001) 102.37
Firm: Held upRefuse To Bend (2002) 90.29
Good: Mid DivisionOne Cool Cat (2003) 96.23
Firm: Held upDubawi (2004) 100.19
Good: ProminentGeorge Washington (2005) 98.35
Good to Frm: Held upTefolio (2006) 87.31
Good: ProminentNew Approach (2007) 92.05
Firm: Front RunnerMastercraftsman (2008) 97.50
Heavy: ProminentThis years Contenders
95.61 Black Quartz Soft Curragh 12th
93.36 Senior Soft Curragh 12th
92.59 Air Chief Marshal Heavy Curragh 30th
92.52 Poet’s Voice Firm York 18th
89.87 Alfred Nobel Gdfm Leopardstown 28th
89.27 Poet’s Voice Good Newmarket 31st
89.14 Lord High Admiral Good Gowran 14th
88.82 Beethoven Soft Curragh 12th
88.52 Cape Blanco Gdsft Fairyhouse 10th
88.35 Emperor Claudius Good Ascot 20th
88.14 Stunning View Soft Curragh 26th
86.93 Emperor Claudius Gdfm Newmarket 10th
86.52 Purple Heart Good Naas 3rd
85.65 Viscount Nelson Soft Tipperary 9th
85.11 Beethoven Good Ascot 20th
84.59 Beethoven Gdfm Leopardstown 6th
83.63 Chabal Good Leopardstown 5th
83.53 Kingsfort Soft Curragh 26th
83.16 Free Judgement Heavy Curragh 30th
83.09 Alfred Nobel Heavy Curragh 26th
82.83 Cape Blanco Soft Fairyhouse 22nd
82.81 Purple Heart Good Gowran Park 12th
82.64 Air Chief Marshal Heavy Curragh 26th
81.53 Alfred Nobel Good Curragh 28th
81.46 Cape Blanco Gdsft Leopardstown 23rd
81.24 Await The Dawn Soft Naas 22nd
77.03 Viscount Nelson Soft Curragh 26th
74.51 Black Quartz Firm Naas 8th
66.58 Viscount Nelson Soft Leopardstown 16th
64.29 Lastofthemohicans Good Leopardstown 13thThe normal progressive rate for a 2 year old would be to improve 4 lengths per run and its at around their 3rd run you can grasp what type of profile the horse fits so i’ll be willing to consider the 4 length rule to horses with horses that have 2 or less runs.
Sectionals
The sectionals part brings us into another dimension, it will enable us to spot different characteristics within the horses such as turn of foot and stamina, there are plenty of 6f sectionals here but rest assured they have been corrected aggregated to 7f for precise examination
This leaves us with one of the best Speed Ratings the National has produced in the last 9 years although there may have been better down the line unfortunately I don’t have the data available. There is always a risky element with sectionals but I believe my hand timing game is very good and after finding a video of Hawk Wings National success I was pleasantly surprised to see he had clocked an impressive 25.35 final 3 furlongs, I say impressive, you’ll see why when you review the data of this year’s runners but remember we have to take the ground into consideration also.
Benchmark Hawk Wing 25.35
34.59 Alfred Nobel Gdfm Leopardstown 28th
35.05 Alfred Nobel Good Curragh 28th
35.06 Viscount Nelson Soft Leopardstown 16th
35.51 Black Quartz Firm Naas 8th
36.07 Chabal Good Leopardstown 5th
36.08 Emperor Claudius Gdfm Newmarket 10th
36.12 Lord High Admiral Good Gowran 14th
36.29 Cape Blanco Gdsft Fairyhouse 10th
36.32 Poet’s Voice Firm York 18th
36.42 Poet’s Voice Good Newmarket 31st
36.48 Kingsfort Soft Curragh 26th
36.55 Senior Soft Curragh 12th
36.59 Viscount Nelson Soft Tipperary 9th
36.79 Beethoven Gdfm Leopardstown 6th
36.85 Stunning View Soft Curragh 26th
36.87 Black Quartz Soft Curragh 12th
37.07 Lastofthemohicans Good Leopardstown 13th
37.26 Cape Blanco Soft Fairyhouse 22nd
37.46 Purple Heart Good Gowran Park 12th
37.48 Cape Blanco Gdsft Leopardstown 23rd
37.54 Purple Heart Good Naas 3rd
37.59 Await The Dawn Soft Naas 22nd
38.59 Viscount Nelson Soft Curragh 26th
39.05 Beethoven Soft Curragh 12th
39.74 Emperor Claudius Good Ascot 20th
40.32 Alfred Nobel Heavy Curragh 26th
40.33 Free Judgement Heavy Curragh 30th
40.48 Beethoven Good Ascot 20th
40.77 Air Chief Marshal Heavy Curragh 26th
41.97 Air Chief Marshal Heavy Curragh 30thSo What do we have?
AIR CHIEF MARSHAL
Has already raced 7 times this year blowing hot and cold a son of Danehill Dancer who isn’t without ability but his last two runs has an all too familiar look about it and looks set for a future as a Ballydoyle pacemaker if he makes it that far and hard to think of him winning this.
ALFRED NOBEL
What we have in Alfred Nobel is a horse that’s meets all the criteria in that he’s had the runs under his belt and the group experience coinciding with two group wins and really is the stand out horse within the race.His speed ratings are by no means spectacular but you have to take into consideration the ground which unless you’re a horse suited by heavy going you won’t be producing anything fast soon especially being a 2 year old.
His best performance on the clock come at Leopardstown over 7 furlongs, this was run on faster ground but yet he still hasn’t put up anything eye catching compared to the other times on the card but his 3f sectionals have proven to be the fastest out of the field we’ve monitored.
Another example of his rapid turn of foot is at the Curragh on the 28th of June were he ran in the Railway Stakes, now if we take a look at the final figure for this race it stands at 81.53 which is as you can tell pretty desperate for a group race run at a very slow pace. The ground was stated as heavy but in fact it was just on the good side when the times were calculated, if we take a look at his 3 furlong sectionals he’s top the charts again with 35.05 which just goes to show how reliable we can take his Leopardstown sections but what we do know is that he remains a serious horse with a serious turn of foot.
His worst performance both sectionally and speed ratings came in the Phoniex Stakes, they went hard early on but to be fair Johny Murtagh left it very late and the horse didn’t have race untill the final furlong were he was brough 4 wide to run on home in what was visually very impressive so its best not to take too much from then ratings when comparing his heavy performances with his opponents.
Alfred Nobel has a profile that screams "3 year old", he is versatile whether it’s a slow or fast early pace and he’ll progress into a lovely colt next year, I wouldn’t put him out of the firing line of the Guineas yet despite what we’ve seen.
BEETHOVEN
Beethoven another O’Brien runner who has run some respectable races this year but he does seem to be found wanting when asked to find the race winning turn of foot. His run in the Anglesey behind Walk On Bye puts him in a good position to make a good go off things but he’s meeting a familiar face in Alfred Noble who’s subsequently beat Beethoven and Walk On Bye pretty comprehensively in the Phoenix Stakes and it’s a form line we just can’t ignore and puts Beethoven out of the picture unless Alfred Nobel seriously underperforms which is highly unlikely.
CHABAL
Jim Bolger’s Chabal won a decent maiden at Leopardstown over 7 furlongs beating the well fancied Dynasty, you’d have to be impressed jumping up to 5th on the sectionals board first time out with a less impressive speed figure of 83.63, although this was 8.6 lengths faster than the earlier division of the maiden on the card won by You’ll Be Mine and 6.3 lenghts slower than Hard Rock City who was once rated 106 and has won over £220,000 in prize money.
The ground that day at Leopardstown was on the good side which he’ll be getting the absolute opposite come Saturday and having read reports he’s still raw picking up a slight knock before his maiden win he could find it a tough task Saturday but a task that will do this son of Galileo plenty of good in terms of his future within the sport, although it isn’t impossible that he could improve enough to win the National but my fears are the trip will be a little bit too short against the likes of Alfred Nobel and Kingsfort.
KINGSFORT
Kingsfort has impressed the bookies enough to be as short as 7/4 to win this race after winning a maiden at the Curragh and I think theres enough evidence to back up this price.
We take a look at his speed figure of 83.53, this on the face of things isn’t spectacular and it’s hard to compare with Alfred Nobel’s Heavy/Soft ground form in the Phoenix as the horse didn’t have a race until approaching the final furlong but I think we’ll use his Leopardstown win as a marker and given the natural progression on ratings Kingsfort may just be within a length of Aiden O’Brien’s runner.
Cabaret also won a fillies maiden on the card that day which Kingsfort was just 2.5 lengths slower and she went on to win a G3 in taking fashion, this is a very serious angle we can’t dismiss and puts Kingsfort in a very good position especially as the horse’s he beat in that Maiden Viscount Nelson and Stunning View have gone on to much better things.
We’ve looked at the form angle, the speed rating angle now the sectionals, we can see that Alfred Nobel has recorded the second fastest final 3 furlongs at the Curragh albeit in a slow run race, if we go down to 10th on the table to find the next Curragh sectional which is Kingsfort, this was run just 2 days before Alfred Noble’s Railway success in a time of 36.48 seconds just 1.03 seconds outside the Railway even more so impressive as we’ve determined the ran to have been run slow which means Kingsfort has a pretty decent turn of foot.
The sectionals have been backed up with Viscount Nelson and Stunning View but they are impressive because of the fact it was over 7 furlongs and done by a horse with no experience in soft ground were as Alfred Noble had run on ground that dried out over the past 2 days, this puts Kingsfort in an extremely good position Saturday.
SENIOR
Edward Lynam not noted for his group race exportations but he saddles Senior here whose running in a Group 1 off the back off a maiden defeat by 2.25 lengths to Black Quartz.
The horse must be pretty useful to take this step in pattern class a step that stable star Duff took in 2005 coming 4th behind George Washington but I am in a bit of a conundrum about this horse’s chances so let’s take a look.
On the 12th of July at the Curragh there was an extremely quick winning time Senior recorded 93.36 which is very quick for a maiden especially on a stiff testing track like the Curragh but I think they’ve gone pretty hard early with Black Quartz and Senior both taking the brunt of things tiring at the finish allowing Reiteration to look like he was flying home which is perfectly fine and something I prefer in my books as you know a horse earns their times not steal them from being held up.
This is a pretty serious time in all accounts and puts Senior in a pretty precarious position, we need to see this isn’t rogue and as we are basing our figures around other performers on the card it will be interesting to see how they’ve faired;
2.35
She’s Our Mark – G3 winner NTO
Latin Love – Listed winner NTO, G2 placed also3.05
Walk on Bye – G1 placed NTO3.40
Sariska – G1 placed NTO
Midday – G1 winner NTO
Oh Goodness Me – Listed place NTO4.15
Taralga – winner NTO
Gratified – placed 4 times over hurdles4.45
Just For Mary – placed NTO
Santo Padre – won next two races5.15
Silver Tided – placed NTO
Tin Town Boy – placed NTO5.15
Estephe – Won NTO
Shalambar – Won NTOI think it’s fairly conclusive that we are look as a pretty reliable time and puts Senior in with every chance especially on soft and the winner Black Quartz who I’ll talk about later looks to be a horse with a serious turn of foot so it was no shame in battling out with a horse like that who had previous experience and who has gone on to win a Nursery carrying a very big weight.
Lets take a look at the sectionals, if we grab Kingsfort’s run at the Curragh on the 26th over the same distance and ground, this run has been backed up by some serious angles it was done in 36.48, now if we take Senior’s sectional of 36.55 the difference is minuscule yet one horse is priced up at 7-4 and the other 33-1!
We’ve had a pretty serious well earnt speed figure that has proven to be genuine which is backed up by a very decent sectional time that is on par with one of the favourites to win, the horse we know acts with cut in the ground and goes well with a decent gallop which he is more likely to get with Air Chief Marshal and Beethoven the only question mark is despite coming with a good challenge last time out he didn’t close the gap on the winner but looked abit clueless so I am hoping another run will see him come on tons but theres question marks over whether he can genuinely take a end to end gallop in a Group 1 but at 33-1 we’ve got enough evidence to back up his chances so why not?
The Low Down
The Low DownAir Chief Marshal – Set a decent tempo, attempt to win race from the front.
Alfred Nobel – Versatile, can sit off a fast pace and has gears to win of a slow tempo remains a serious danger.
Beethoven – Set a decent tempo, attempt to win race from the front.
Chabal – Track the leaders with every chance but to be worn down by other classier change of gears at this distance.
Kingsfort – To travel alongside Alfred Nobel in what looks to be a true test of who’s the better horse, a very intriguing battle.
Senior – An interesting outsider who could provide the shocks if you’re a man who likes some value, I think a strong pace is needed which looks likely to get and has also won on the ground.
1ST. Kingsfort
2ND. Alfred Nobel
3RD. Senior
4TH. Chabal
5TH. Air Chief Marshal
6TH. Beethoven
Bets
The value in the race purely has to be SENIOR at 33/1, but Kingsfort and Alfred Nobel are unseperable in the investigation it would be entirely your choice after reviewing the evidence but personally I am a man that likes value so it will probally be worth getting an Exacta on the two if Senior fails to live up to my expectations.
Other Horses To Note From This Investigation
Just two quick notes on horses that have caught my eye who were entered for this race. First if we quickly take a look at the Speed Ratings table and go right down to the bottom you’ll find three desperate times and if we compare there sectionals;
SR
74.51 Black Quartz Firm Naas 8th
66.58 Viscount Nelson Soft Leopardstown 16thSectionals
35.51 Black Quartz Firm Naas 8th
35.06 Viscount Nelson Soft Leopardstown 16thI think we’ve found 2 horses with a pretty lethal turn of foot in my eyes and should make a big impact next year for Aiden O’Brien, one for the notebooks guys
Gerald i would assume the conditions will be no worse than soft. Leapardstown is a law onto iteself….had a real windy drying day at The Curragh today so i assume the track will have dried out plenty. Also with the hour going back more sunshine so i think conditions will be decent for this time of the year.
Regarding Mr Wilson…that really is superb piece of work their. I really didn’t fancy Black Quartz after his first 2 runs but he really grew on me after Galway when he was giving crazy weight as a 2yr old. I hope he wins tomoro as i think he could be a very decent animal IMO.
EDIT: Reiteration of Jim Bolgers franked the form last Sunday
Gosden’s Azmeel is going for the Guardian Classic trial. Seems I was wrong last year in thinking that the Washington Singer winner might have enough speed for the Guineas.
What are we to think after the race? Aidan was second but he is the mule in the yard. I bet Aidan has at least ten better than Viscount Nelson.
"Similarly, I am keen to see both Dick Turpin and Carnaby Street
come around the bend
. Carnaby Street could go for the Craven Stakes at Newmarket, but Dick Turpin would have to carry a penalty if he went there, so he will probably be aimed at the Greenham at Newbury."
That would seem like both horses are being considered for the Poulains.
Liked the look of Aldovrandi at Kempton yesterday. You don’t get many newcomers popping up in fields like that and winning so convincingly. Certainly keeping my eyes on this one.
I feel like Doctor Who, wondering about whether I’ve alighted upon the right combination of age group and year!
I’ve just noticed that Mark Johnston has a horse entered in the Wood Ditton that ran as a 2yo . . .
I suppose it’s an easy mistake to make, because once you know its a maiden race you probably don’t bother looking at the conditions, and the race name is probably buried by the sponsors, but you can’t help laughing anyway.
Another Boost to Flying Cross as the 6th in Rocket Man won cosy today.
I LOVE THAT FLYING CROSS - Total Posts 17716
Yep, hes going to be a serious horse as I told everyone last September and have a few quid on at 75’s
Sorry to blow my own trumpet lol
COME ON YOU FLYING CROS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A talking horse last year is racing tonight at Dundalk.
Captain James Cook.It be tough for him though with that Oxx horse.Make sure of the sound before blowing the old trumpet.Aidan never even mentions him.Wonder why?
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