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I was earlier today reading the latest update on Mark Howards Racing Diary (author of One Jump Ahead) where he was complimenting Tazbar’s performances this season after another grade win at Haydock on the weekend.
However, I was surprised to see him remark that he hopes he misses the Cheltenham Festival and poses the question on why risk his future for the sake of running in a gruelling race which usually leaves its mark. He then goes onto evidence this by stating that it isn’t a coincidence that Black Jack Ketchum, Black Harry, Flight Leader, Over The Creek and Wichita Lineman haven’t been the same horses since running in the race.
I know that Black Harry has been out since falling at the final flight in last seasons race at the festival, however, I can’t have it that running in the ‘gruelling’ race is the reason that BJK & WL haven’t been the same horses in the season after their novice campaigns
Besides, it can’t be that gruelling a race because connections were more than happy to allow both BJK & WL run in the 3 mile novice hurdles at Cheltenham & Aintree (obviously not likely to happen this year with the close proximety of the Cheltenham & Aintree festivals).
Any thoughts chaps??
I think he makes a very good point. The likes of Dabiroun, No Refuge, Moulin Riche, Shamayoun, Black Jack, Ebaziyan, Gaspara, Massini’s, Wichita, Arcalis, Penzance, have all been largely disappointing after winning novice hurdles at the festival in recent years. It seems to take an awful lot out of young horses. Noland and Nicanor could still be anything I suppose but their very much in the minority imo. I think Katchit will be joining the disappointing list as well shortly.
With all respect guys the race had absolutely nothing to do with BJK losing his form………he won the race so easy he wouldn’t have blown a candle out afterwards and took next to nothing out of the horse who was in greatcondition after the race. He went to Aintree and won and won 1st time out the next season…..ok he went off track but to blame one race which was one of his easiest ever victories is way off the mark
I doubt if you have seen the last of WL…there’s a lot of mileage left in him and writing him off would be foolish……badly needed the run first time out and has only run once since where he disappointed……..
The Revelye’s have made it clear they don’t like the Cheltenham festival and I would imagine unless the owner insists the horse will go to Liverpool so your man is most likely to have his wish granted.
I’ll let Katchit do his own talking in the CH………..horse looks better than ever to me.
PS Istabraq and Persian War won at Cheltehham before becoing superstars did they not…..nothing to do with the meeting if the horses are short shelf lives they go off the boil that’s all…if they ran at Aintree chances are they would still end up the same way IMO
FOF – Completely agree with your thoughts on BJK which is why I was surprised with the sweeping statment from Mark Howard. Hope you are right with WL as backed him for the World Hurdle prior to Saturday’s race at 6/1.
I’ve got a soft spot for Cheltenham Festival as I’ve been going there for as long as I can remember (even in shorts with the old fella!). However, I’ve been to the Aintree Festival for the last few years (as per one of my earlier posts) and all I want to see is the best horses competing at the premier events.
FOF – So you really fancy Katchit for the CH?
I’m not entirely sure the 3m novices’ hurdle has been long enough established in the Festival programme for it to have earned a reputation, deserved or otherwise, as a wrecker of horses. Further, of the horses Mark Howard listed, I’m not sure I’d describe Over The Creek a spent or diminished force – a place finish in the Welsh National as recently as two months ago has to count for something.
I disagree with very little of Mr Howard’s assertions for the greater part, but I can’t concur with every last syllable on this occasion.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
There will always be novice race winners who don’t go on to achieve all that they seemingly should, and I would argue that that has nothing to do with running them at Cheltenham. For every subsequent disappointment, there is a success story, but such sweeping statements never take into account the horses that finished behind the supposed under-achievers in novice races.
War of Attrition, Straw Bear, Sublimity, Well Chief, Kicking King, Thisthatandtother, Blazing Bailey, Afsoun, Turko and Golden Cross have all gone on to do pretty well without even winning a novice race at Cheltenham (all ran in 2m novices within last 9 years) their names in with Brave Inca etc., the picture looks very different.
The races won by the likes of Penzance were poor by top class standards, so to see them go on to ‘fail’ at the highest level can’t be much of a surprise. Interestingly though, we don’t hear the same comments made (generally) about novice races over fences at the Festival…or at Cheltenham at any other point of the season.
FOF – Completely agree with your thoughts on BJK which is why I was surprised with the sweeping statment from Mark Howard. Hope you are right with WL as backed him for the World Hurdle prior to Saturday’s race at 6/1.
I’ve got a soft spot for Cheltenham Festival as I’ve been going there for as long as I can remember (even in shorts with the old fella!). However, I’ve been to the Aintree Festival for the last few years (as per one of my earlier posts) and all I want to see is the best horses competing at the premier events.
FOF – So you really fancy Katchit for the CH?
I really fancy him to go close but have backed both him and Sizing Europe at the same price so either one will do. He was my original fancy until I spotted Sizing Europe in a novice Hurdle in Ireland then found out he had won at Cheltenham. I must admit I have still never seen Osana run but the fact he beat Katchit doesn’t impress me.
My idea of the Champioh Hurdle is :-
Sublimity: Won the champion hurdle last year on soft ground. Cruised past beaten horses at the last in a slow run race. Went 3 lengths clear but when asked to quicken failed to find anything extre and ran on at one pace. He also appered to be one paced in a fast run race won by Noland race the previous year at Cheltenham. Can’t see him being concerned in the finish on that form which is probably about him. I think he was flattered lst year as the race turned out to be a very bad CH.
Afsoun: Beaten 3 lengths last year by Sublimity he would be suited by a slow pace. Reversed placings with Straw Bear recently and is obviously in good form. In a strong run race he could reverse placings with Sublimity and sneak into a place again…..was finishing better than Sublimity last year…..best outsider in the race.
Katchit: never looked anything like the horse who won the Triumph Hurdle last year in the early part of the season. Ratings experts will argue he has run up to his mark at newcastle and when beaten by Osana. They lack imagination IMO and give no quarter to the fact he has been trained totally different this year. Katchit win against Blythe Knight who stuffed Osana at Aintree was much better than he has been given credit for. He not only burned BK out he put 5 lengths between he and hinself very easilly. I expect Katchit will hit the front in the CH somewhere around the 3rd last in the CH, play catch me if you can and he will take all the beating in the world. Not many if any will get to him. Nailed on EW bet.
Sizing Europe: The first chance he has to show how good he really is was in the AIG. His win in Ireland was breathtaking albeit agains some spent forces. He stands head and shoulders above last years winner Sublimity and looks to improved a stone since beating Osana. He has a high cruising speed and the faster they go the better. He has huge stride and over and above that has the ability to quicken I just can’t see Katchit coping with him. Very worthy favourite.
Harchibald: I am not totally convinced he is a bridle horse he looked thouroughly genuine at Newcastle……..at his best I would still expect him to run well. His 2nd to hardy Eustace is not good form IMO as I never rated HE very highly. However Harchibald has so much class he would run the same way against virtually any CH horse… If on song….. his high cruising speed could see him run into a place again.
Mark Howard is talking absolute rubbish.
There are other reasons why some of those horses have run poorly. Others have run to their form, it is just people forget the Spa is a second division race with few top class runners. BJK was over rated on that performance, he has shown the same form since and lacked the scope for improvement. Is not very big and is not a young horse.
Black Harry took a heavy fall, a heavy fall anywhere can set a horse back, no matter what race it is in.
Wicheta Lineman is a lazy horse that needs a run or two to get fit, ran poorly first time up over an inadequate trip. Ran well, probably not far behind his Spa form at Cheltenham. Then had another spell out before running poorly last week. Though was disappointing.
Flight Leader needs soft ground, if such a horse runs on good or firmer he can do some damage. It was nothing to do with the race, everything to do with the surface.
Over The Creek has had an injury he has taken time to recover from. Probably for the same reason as Flight Leader.Ginge
Value Is EverythingFists, on another read, you stated how important it was to see horses racing before reaching an opinion on their ability but above you dismiss Osana without ever having seen him run.
That seems something of a contradiction to me!
Colin
War of Attrition, Straw Bear, Sublimity, Well Chief, Kicking King, Thisthatandtother, Blazing Bailey, Afsoun, Turko and Golden Cross have all gone on to do pretty well without even winning a novice race at Cheltenham, so when you throw their names in with Brave Inca etc., the picture looks very different.
Thats my point LGR, none of those won at the festival yet went on to be better horses. The novice hurdle winners of the last few years have been by and large disappointing on the follow up. I tend to agree with Howard as to the reason why.
So those who won novice races were ‘ruined’ by the experience, whilst those not good enough to win novice races weren’t?
Absolute nonsense.
Didn’t Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace both win their novice hurdles and go on to win the Champion Hurdle? Horses react to races differently not just the race itself but the whole travelling to the course, being housed there and atmosphere on the day. That said Cheltenham is not the be all and end all some people make it out to be, there are plenty of very good horses who never win at the festival and some who are just not suited to Cheltenham full stop.
………but the original post was specifically about the 3 mile novice hurdle, wasn’t it?
Colin
I also hold Mark Howard in high regard, but he’s got it completely wrong here. There are only four championships up for grabs every year, so why on earth would you expect the previous seasons novices to always be good enough to capture them? Some aren’t, some don’t progress, some meet with setbacks, and some divisions already have exceptional horses in them.
With regards to the three mile novice hurdle surely it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that when horses that won the previous renewal graduate into open company they will find it much tougher unless they are palpably better, or when they go novice chasing they will be meeting horses with equally as much potential who have graduated via a different route, or have more physical scope to improve. and those that finished behind may not be good enough anyway. Does he also forget the Ballymore Hurdle is also contested by similar types that may have a little more speed to go with their stamina.
Presumably if Kauto beats Denman he will also suggest Denman was ruined by the Sun Alliance Chase!
That said Cheltenham is not the be all and end all some people make it out to be, there are plenty of very good horses who never win at the festival and some who are just not suited to Cheltenham full stop.
I know it’s true, Stan, and everyone agrees, but I still can’t help feeling it is. No other meeting can really get me in as much as Cheltenham. This year I have more ante post bets than ever before, and despite last year’s poor tipping, I’m as hopeful as ever for this year. More so!
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