2yo Summary Thread

[Zarkava]

Captain James Cook is entered for a maiden

But it’s at Galway That’d eliminate him immediately.

[Zarkava]

Just came across a new trend for the 2yos in regard to the Guineas. Since 1995 only 4 horses that ran in Group races in or before August have won the Guineas – King of Kings, Rock of Gibraltar, George Washington and Henrythenavigator. Namely horses trained by Mr Aidan O’Genius.

As a result of this I’ve taken Arcano, Emerald Commander and another horse I’ve forgotten off my list. 22 remain, 4 yet to run and 6 yet to win a race. Shintoh and Munsarim were both demolished by Kingsfort/Stunning View and Al Zir on their debuts and no reason why they should reverse such heavy beatings.

[Zarkava]

Double post.

[darren83]

If you like a horse like Captain James Cook.You should stick with it.The horse win well on its debut when will it be racing.And could be a smart horse.

[darren83]

Apart from the racingpost site.Is there anywhere else i can see entries for next years Derby.

[darren83]

Because i tried to get at Racingpost website but it keeps crashing and i can’t see it sorry for this triple post as well.

[Gerald]

Try using Mozilla Firefox instead of Internet Explorer when you visit RP.

I’m using Firefox all the time, which is the main reason I never use attheraces even though I subscribe to it, because that prefers Internet Explorer

[Gerald]

What price Kingsfort now, after Prendergast’s Termagant wins after a similar break?

[Zarkava]

Call this aftertiming (fwiw I posted it on a different forum 2 days ago), please do, but I went through the Fillies’ Mile entries the other day and narrowed it down to the following list (I’ve been able to eliminate Gile Na Greine, a John Dunlop horse and someone else today).

These are left;

Attractive 0 2 David Wachman — – –
Bebopalula 0 2 B W Hills — – –
Campeche Bay 0 2 David Wachman — – –
Cheeky By Nature 0 2 B J Meehan — – –
3 Chelsea Morning 78 2 B W Hills — 63 72
1 Conniption 71 2 B J Meehan — 90 90
Contredanse 0 2 B J Meehan — – –
Deirdre 0 2 J H M Gosden — – –
Fleeting Glance 0 2 B J Meehan — – –
2 Foolish Ambition 126 2 David Wachman — 88 94
2 Giants Play 43 2 Sir Michael Stoute — 55 79
Gonebeyondthemoon 0 2 David Wachman — – –
Hot Cross Bun 0 2 W J Haggas — – –
Hypnology 0 2 M L W Bell — – –
Kithonia 0 2 H R A Cecil — – –
313 Lady Darshaan 80 2 J S Moore — 77 98
1812 Mudaaraah 65 2 J L Dunlop — 90 96
Nahab 0 2 D R Lanigan — – –
11 Olvia 46 2 C Laffon-Parias — 26 97
Revered 0 2 Sir Michael Stoute — – –
Rumoush 0 2 M P Tregoning — – –
Safina 0 2 Sir Michael Stoute — – –
131 Sent From Heaven 49 2 B W Hills — 97 98
1 Seta 56 2 L M Cumani — 58 95
Shelfah 0 2 M A Jarvis — – –
1 Termagant 107 2 Kevin Prendergast — 59 85
Three Rainbows 0 2 David Wachman — – –

I haven’t been through the Cheveley Park entries yet but Lady Of The Desert is definitely on my shortlist.

[Gerald]

Whoa! Big Fella – someone of us are having a hard enough job catching up on the colts, and you’re sorting the fillies out as well!

Just to check, when you’re working through the Fillies’ Mile list, are you looking for the Fillies’ Mile winner, or the Guineas winner?

[Zarkava]

The 1000 Guineas winner. Not many trends at this stage, as can be expected of the fillies. No May foals, no 3 attempts to break a maiden, top 3 finish on debut, no horses outside the top 3 in the Moyglare and no progeny of Montjeu. His record with fillies is atrocious. For some reason I really like Hot Cross Bun and I think Haggas could easily have a pair of Guineas contenders come next May.

[darren83]

I think Lillie Langtry will win 1000 guineas.I know she lost yesterday but next year at Newmarket on much better groundshe can win it.

Also Zarkava.That horse that won yesterday will not go to Newmarket.Prendergast said that horse will run in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

[Gerald]

I’m almost ready to roll with the Derby. I just have about 30 2yos that aren’t on the Pedigree Query database. They might have been mispelt, so I’ll look for their dam’s progeny before attempting to add them myself.

I’ll dribble things out over the next week, rather than doing it all in one go.

In male-line, Eclipse is only responsible for 19 of the last 20 Derby winners. The exception is Dr Devious (Byerley Turk).

I think the other 19 descend through Birdcatcher. "Owner Disney ordered destruction when he was unable to cover mare Queen Bee."

Ahonoora-Djebel Line

Dr Devious

Busted-Crepello Line

Shaamit

Northern Dancer Line

Erhaab
High Chaparral
Lammtarra
Motivator
Commander in Chief
Generous
Oath
Authorized
New Approach
Sinndar
North Light
Galileo
Sea The Stars

Rainbow Quest-Blushing Groom Line

Quest For Fame

Roberto Line

Benny The Dip
Kris Kin

Shirley Heights-Mill Reef Line

Sir Percy
High Rise

So the Northern Dancer clan is responsible for 13 out of the last 20 winners.

The Mr Prospector-Native Dancer-Unbreakable line is responsible for zero Derby winners. However, I wouldn’t want to eliminate a horse just because of this. It is very easy to imagine Kingmambo siring a Derby winner. So long as a horse passes through all the other hoops, I think we can ignore the question of male-line descent.

Nearco represents 18 out of the 20 winners.

I just thought I’d post this as an introductory overview.

[Gerald]

GSV stands for Genetic Strength Value. It is devised by George William Smith. If you pay a subscription to Pedigree Query, instead of accessing it free, then the GSV score as of 2005 shows on a horse’s pedigree, so the figures I am using are not up-to-date.

More info here:

http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmake … 11108.html

Most of you will think it is hocus-pocus, and a scam – just someone trying to make money out of racing a different way.

The GSV was compiled from all the other horses in a five generation pedigree, except the ones in tail-female descent, so it was a useful complement to a sales catalogue, as you have details on the female line in that.

Edit: So that I could arrange things the way I wanted on the screen, I only had the first four generations of the pedigree on screen. This has affected the GSV scores I took.

THESE ARE FIGURES FOR JUST THE FIRST FOUR GENERATIONS
[/color:32bqdnqu]
GSV GSV_Dam [/color:32bqdnqu] Horse
57.75 67.52 [/color:32bqdnqu] Dr Devious
52.56 56.98 [/color:32bqdnqu] Shaamit
59.23 60.66 [/color:32bqdnqu] Erhaab
60.59 56.60 [/color:32bqdnqu] High Chaparral
61.02 54.20 [/color:32bqdnqu] Lammtarra
52.98 56.92 [/color:32bqdnqu] Motivator
63.80 64.57 [/color:32bqdnqu] Commander in Chief
59.69 56.14 [/color:32bqdnqu] Generous
54.87 58.49 [/color:32bqdnqu] Oath
51.69 54.02 [/color:32bqdnqu] Authorized
53.33 53.73 [/color:32bqdnqu] New Approach
50.82 54.70 [/color:32bqdnqu] Sinndar
61.44 58.39 [/color:32bqdnqu] North Light
58.96 55.90 [/color:32bqdnqu] Galileo
52.14 55.90 [/color:32bqdnqu] Sea The Stars
61.51 58.34 [/color:32bqdnqu] Quest For Fame
59.51 59.41 [/color:32bqdnqu] Benny The Dip
64.28 64.45 [/color:32bqdnqu] Kris Kin
48.34 55.60 [/color:32bqdnqu] Sir Percy
49.10 58.98 [/color:32bqdnqu] High Rise

These are actually LOW numbers. High class horses often have scores in the 70s, yet the only score above 65 is for Dr Devious’s dam. GSV can be ignored for the Derby – unless one wants to argue that all the high score horses are too classy to win a Derby!

OKAY IGNORE ALL THAT. I’LL COMPILE THE PROPER FIVE GENERATION FIGURES NOW!
[/color:32bqdnqu]

[Gerald]

I hope that you have all had a jolly good laugh at my expense, and have learnt a valuable lesson about how numbers can be dangerous, unless handled by a trained professional.

Okay, here are the proper GSV scores:-

GSV GSV_Dam [/color:2n354co4] Horse
73.89 84.31 [/color:2n354co4] Dr Devious
68.31 70.16 [/color:2n354co4] Shaamit
75.14 77.83 [/color:2n354co4] Erhaab
75.42 70.82 [/color:2n354co4] High Chaparral
75.82 71.51 [/color:2n354co4] Lammtarra
68.53 73.58 [/color:2n354co4] Motivator
78.43 80.38 [/color:2n354co4] Commander in Chief
75.89 71.94 [/color:2n354co4] Generous
71.11 74.22 [/color:2n354co4] Oath
67.08 69.53 [/color:2n354co4] Authorized
65.52 68.08 [/color:2n354co4] New Approach
64.66 69.47 [/color:2n354co4] Sinndar
77.66 73.59 [/color:2n354co4] North Light
75.07 71.60 [/color:2n354co4] Galileo
66.93 71.60 [/color:2n354co4] Sea The Stars
76.46 74.68 [/color:2n354co4] Quest For Fame
74.60 75.49 [/color:2n354co4] Benny The Dip
79.38 78.98 [/color:2n354co4] Kris Kin
63.40 72.04 [/color:2n354co4] Sir Percy
63.07 72.96 [/color:2n354co4] High Rise

I’m actually quite impressed with these. As usual with my work with GSV, I am ignoring the horse’s GSV score, and only using the dam’s score, as it won’t have changed much in the past few years.

The average for all runners in graded races on Turf is about 72. Looks like the figure for a Derby winner’s dam has to be 68+. This fits in with the data that both Zarkava and I found about Derby winning dams having produced other good runners.

Now, lets see if I have to redo the GSV score for 200+ 2yos . . .

[Gerald]

Modern Conduit Mare Profile

This is the work of Bill Lathrop. "His system is similar to Steve Roman’s Dosage indexes in that it attempts to measure speed and stamina influences in a pedigree. However, it differs from Roman’s approach in that it uses female families rather than influential sires to analyze the pedigree."

His website no longer exists. A pity, because I really, really was meaning to buy his book.

Conduit Mare Profile TP Speed [/color:2tk0wl4b] Stamina [/color:2tk0wl4b] Index CD Tr [/color:2tk0wl4b] ia [/color:2tk0wl4b] ds [/color:2tk0wl4b] Horse
9 4 4 8 4 29 13 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 12 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 1.3 0.21 17 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Erhaab
6 5 5 6 4 26 11 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 1.16 0.12 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 15 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Benny The Dip
5 7 4 6 5 27 12 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 11 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 1.05 0.04 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 17 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 15 [/color:2tk0wl4b] High Chaparral
4 7 2 11 3 27 11 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.89 -0.07 13 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 20 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Lammtarra
5 7 1 6 7 26 12 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 13 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.86 -0.12 13 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Motivator
6 2 2 11 3 24 8 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.84 -0.13 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 15 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Commander in Chief
6 4 5 5 8 28 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 13 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.81 -0.18 15 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 18 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Shaamit
6 3 5 11 5 30 9 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.77 -0.20 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 19 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 21 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Generous
5 5 4 7 7 28 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.76 -0.21 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 18 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Oath
2 8 4 8 5 27 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 13 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.73 -0.22 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 20 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 17 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Sir Percy
6 4 6 7 9 32 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.71 -0.28 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 17 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 22 [/color:2tk0wl4b] New Approach
3 6 3 11 4 27 9 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 15 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.68 -0.26 12 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 20 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 18 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Authorized
1 9 2 7 5 24 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 12 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.68 -0.25 12 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 18 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] High Rise
4 5 1 8 6 24 9 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.67 -0.29 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 15 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Sinndar
2 8 3 11 5 29 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.63 -0.31 13 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 22 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 19 [/color:2tk0wl4b] North Light
4 6 4 7 9 30 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.62 -0.37 14 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 17 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 20 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Galileo
2 6 4 11 5 28 8 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.56 -0.39 12 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 21 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 20 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Kris Kin
4 5 3 8 9 29 9 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 17 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.55 -0.45 12 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 20 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Sea The Stars
2 6 2 8 8 26 8 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.46 -0.54 10 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 18 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Quest For Fame
2 3 3 12 4 24 5 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 16 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 0.43 -0.54 8 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 18 [/color:2tk0wl4b] 19 [/color:2tk0wl4b] Dr Devious

Okay Happy, see me if you need some remedial teaching.

17 out of 20 had profiles skewed towards stamina rather than speed, indicated by them having more stamina than speed points, an index of less than 1, and a negative Centre Of Distribution.

Of the three exceptions, High Chaparral was okay on the male lines, but there were doubts about the other two, so we would have missed them, I think.

I suppose the sensible rule, to include all 20, is that they can only have one more speed point than stamina point.

[Gerald]

I suppose the sensible rule, to include all 20, is that they can only have one more speed point than stamina point.

I’ve just checked this for the runners in the 2009 Derby, because I had the figures to hand. It doesn’t exclude any of them. I suppose this means that it is not a very good tool for chucking whole swathes of runners, but the ones that fall foul of it really do need to get chucked.

I still need to do about 30 entries for 2010, but this criterion eliminates 29 horses including one by Sadler’s Wells out of a Darshaan mare! It also seems to get rid of the Selkirks en masse.

[Author]

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