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2yo Summary Thread

Home Forums Archive Topics Trends, Research And Notebooks 2yo Summary Thread

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  • #245289
    Avatar photoGerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    On the Racing Post website, if you click on Cards, then on the list at the top showing the next five days, Big-Race entries is on the right.

    http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/big_races.sd

    #245290
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Good grief – Dynasty is entered in virtually everything going.

    22Aug09 3:45 (Overnight) at Fairyhouse, Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Maiden
    [Offered by Bet365 – Click to bet]
    Evs

    27Aug09 6:55 (Four Day) at Tipperary, Tipp Town Bussinesses Raceday European Breeders Fund Maiden

    10Sep09 3:10 (Early closer) at Doncaster, Weatherbys Insurance £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes

    12Sep09 2:05 (Early closer) at Doncaster, DFS Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings)

    12Sep09 3:05 (Early closer) at Curragh, Ladbrokes.com National Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies)

    18Sep09 3:40 (Early closer) at Newmarket, £250000 Tattersalls Timeform Millions Sprint

    19Sep09 2:35 (Early closer) at Newbury, Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)

    26Sep09 2:30 (Early closer) at Ascot, Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings)

    02Oct09 3:10 (Early closer) at Newmarket, Shadwell Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts)

    03Oct09 2:45 (Early closer) at Newmarket, Tattersalls Timeform Million

    17Oct09 2:25 (Early closer) at Newmarket, Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies)

    24Oct09 3:30 (Early closer) at Doncaster, Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) (Colts & Fillies)

    14Apr10 3:00 (Early closer) at Newmarket, £250000 Tattersalls Timeform 3-Y-O Trophy

    05Jun10 4:00 (Early closer) at Epsom, The Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies)

    To find a horses entries, enter the horse’s name in the search facility on the Racing Post website. For Dynasty a list of four horses is shown, but he is obviously the 2007 one.

    That brings you to this page:

    http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_ … _id=723306

    On the horse’s page one of the things you can click on is entries. That is where I got the above list from.

    #245291
    Avatar photoZarkava
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    Yeah Ferdinand Magellan’s the other O’Brien horse I really like with a huge host of entries. My favourite’s still Captain James Cook though. No idea why…

    #245293
    Avatar photoGerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    I suppose Zarkava that you have to take notice of the Sales races for your trends work, and that previous trends for contenders in one race to have run in such-and-such a race will have changed in the past few years. For example, if Dynasty should turn out to be any good, why should he bother with the Dewhurst, when presumably the Timeform Million is richer and easier? (Okay, they would then be taking a chance that the horse can pick up a prestigious prize as a 3yo because they then wouldn’t have Group 1 on the CV.)

    #245294
    Avatar photowallace-no7
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    Interesting that Captain James Cook was bred by Lady Blandford of Sariska fame.

    It will be interesting howhe can get all these well bred middle distance pedigree animals out in the space of 2 months especially since there is no more than 6 to 7 maidens in Ireland a week.

    He might have to bring a shipload over to Doncaster as the ground here could get even worse meaning it could put finito to a whole bunch of animals.

    On today does Cape Blanco look a Racing Post animal?……HMMM

    #245333
    Avatar photoGerald
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    • Total Posts 4293

    I was seeing all those Doubtful Runners in the list of Derby entrants, and was shaking my head at the high attrition rate in racing. Only noticed today that they are all geldings!

    There seems to be a high number of first season sires capable of breeding a Guineas or Derby winner, so if I am going to use the Racing Post Flat Stamina Index numbers then I will have to assign figures to these.

    These are the figures I’ve given to sires or damsires of Derby entrants, without a FSI:

    10.0 Azamour
    10.0 Bago
    11.0 Doyen
    9.0 Dubawi
    8.0 Ernesto De Lago
    9.0 Footstepsinthesand
    8.0 Gentleman’s Deal
    8.0 Ghostzapper
    8.0 Leroidesanimaux
    11.0 Motivator
    11.0 North Light
    10.0 Oratorio
    11.0 Powerscourt
    9.0 Roses In May
    9.0 Shamardal
    9.0 Starcraft
    8.0 Trade Fair
    8.0 Zafeen
    8.5 Coronado’s Quest
    8.5 Boston Harbor
    8.0 Buckley Boy
    8.0 Tough Critic
    8.5 Timber Country
    8.5 Flying Paster
    10.0 Tony Bin
    7.5 Honour And Glory

    Anyway, then proceeded to restrict the list to those with a combined figure between 19.0 and 23.0. and to those with a name. List gets reduced to 148 runners.

    There are only 10 of these that have won or come second first time out, and 6 of these are trained by AOB. Mention has been made of sexy breeding before, and you can’t get much sexier than

    1 Eightfold Path P Bary — 82 82 Eightfold Path Giant’s Causeway 9.2 Divine Proportions Kingmambo 9.8 19

    I suppose as it is French it gets chucked out for the Derby. Lookout for it at the Arc meeting, I suppose.

    #245340
    Avatar photoZarkava
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    Oh I think that horse was formerly called Keran. I certainly have a Divine Propertions 2yo called Keran on my list and he won first time out and trained by Pascal Bary.

    #245381
    Avatar photoZarkava
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    I’ve just backed Arcano at 17s. I pretty much wrote him off for running in the July Stakes but upon closer inspection he looks very good indeed.

    Between 1995 and 2009 the only once-raced horses to be placed in the July Stakes were Air Express, Mull of Kintyre, Byron, River Proud and Sayif, ie. all extremely talented horses. 2 of them Group 1 winners, the other 3 placed in Group 1s (well, Mull of Kintyre was 4th a couple of times).

    His form’s working out well with Showcasing running very well in the Gimcrack and Orpen Grey putting in a respectable effort and the latter and Arcano were miles clear in the July. Oasis Dream is getting better at stud year after year and it’s simply a matter of time before he sires a Guineas winner. Maktoum’s snapped him up since and now runs in the Morny on Sunday. I’m taking a risk since he’s up against Canford Cliffs but if he wins he’ll be something like 4s for the Guineas or maybe even shorter.

    Aside from him there’s very little that catches my attention. The Guineas winner will almost certainly have run by September 10th and aside horses like Canford Cliffs, Steinbeck, Alfred Nobel and Arcano, there’s really nothing that interests me for the Guineas and not even the former 3 of those 4 interest me particularly.

    Get in. Actually got 20s from Hills (didn’t back him until Saturday morning) and I got 40s about him winning the Morny and Guineas with the same firm. Stonking bet that looks now ;)

    #245385
    Kotkijet
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    I saw Canford Cliffs for the first time today and a certain Public Enemy track comes to mind.

    #245392
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    Wouldn’t be taking 8/1 about Arcano for the 2000 though. They finished in too much of heap for any particular one of them to be a superstar, although the last time I said that I ended up with a substantial amount of egg on my face!

    After Sea The Stars won the Beresford, I distinctly remember saying "There was no Derby winner in that field" :oops: :lol: . Now I have no doubt that he is one of best I’ve seen.

    Nobody knows how much a 2yo will improve over the winter.

    #245397
    Avatar photowallace-no7
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    From Knowing Zarkava….i would reckon he laid that big time CC.

    That was hugely disappointing and you cant underestimate how much Pedigrees have a part to play in such races.

    That was a sharp smooth purchase by Hammy and he been rewarded already…..hopefully now Meehan gets him there on the day and he should go with a good chance.

    Dewhurst next or maybe the Group 1 on Arc weekend if he thinks France is the safer option.

    #245404
    stilvi
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    That was hugely disappointing and you cant underestimate how much Pedigrees have a part to play in such races.

    Can you elaborate because I can’t see what on earth the pedigree had to do with Canford Cliffs failing to reproduce his Ascot running and Arcano just getting home in a bunched finish?

    #245406
    Avatar photowallace-no7
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    Okay for me Arcano has a much better pedigree….Oasis Dream out of a Daylami mare…in fact a unraced animal owned by his Royal Highness the Aga Khan that never raced for John Oxx. Oasis Dream generally hasnt had many speed ball 2yr olds.

    Canford is a Tagula out of marju mare. Nothing at all to write home about on Pedigree so maybe he was just a seriously speed merchant early season type….a bit like the American horses at Royal Ascot.

    Who Knows….but today was really telling….he didnt ever look like winning which most be disappointing.

    I would suspect that Arcano has quite a bit left in the tank.

    #245447
    darren83
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    Was impressed with Arcano today looked very good. now he is fave for next years 2000 guineas though hills have Acarno,Nobel and CC has joint faves.

    Can’t wait for Kingsfort in the national stakes any idea who he be up against.And hope you do Kingsfort soon as well Gerald like you said.

    #245448
    Avatar photoZarkava
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    Stunning View and Alfred Nobel would be my guesses. Cape Blanco I imagine will go Beresford – RP Trophy.

    #245452
    Avatar photowallace-no7
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    Has Kevin Prendgast made any remarks about Kingsfort…I havent heard a peep about this horse since his maiden.

    I would of thought he would have raced for the Futurity or maybe the Beresford but now the National Stakes.

    Take a hell of a long time for a 2yr not to have raced from Irish Derby to the National.

    #245456
    Avatar photoGerald
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    Okay Darren, but Fist has only just heard of Kingsfort for the first time, so you might get something interesting out of him. I’ll do him tomorrow. I’ve been inputting data into the Derby spreadsheet, and it is quite a diversion.

    Have only just found out that the Indian Ridge/Ahonoora/Djebel/Flying Dutchman line goes all the way back to the Byerley Turk instead of Eclipse. :oops: :shock: I knew it was different, but didn’t realise that.

    On the Derby front, I would be a little more circumspect about chucking horses out than Zarkava, until the season’s end. (That’s probably because I ain’t planning to do any betting on this race anytime soon.) In terms of performances in races, only chuck them out if they don’t win one of their first two races. This would have only eliminated Oath in the past 21 years. Then, if they run in 3+ races by end of season, and haven’t achieved a RPR of 109+, chuck them also. Again, would have only chucked Oath out of 9 winners.

    On the 7+ furlong rule after the Derby, Dynasty is already chucked for having made his debut over 6f yesterday! He would still have been chucked if he had won! This seems a tad harsh, as it understandable trainers starting horses off over 6f if the ground is Soft or Heavy.

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