2yo Summary Thread

[Gerald]

I left out the Conduit Mare Profile. Don’t know how useful this is in general.

6-4-0-10-6

Speed is on the left, and stamina is on the right, stamina outscores speed by 16 to 10. This counteracts any impression that Dosage might give.

[darren83]

I was reading the colunm by Tom Segal in the weekender 5 weeks ago along with Kingsfort.Who i already knew.He also talked about Showcasing for next year’s 2000 guineas.Though he said some were saying the same stuff about Raven’s Pass.But he went on to win the Breeders cup.Not saying Showcasing can do the same.

Also Gerald you are not a idiot so don’t say that about yourself.

And what do you think of Kingsfort.I like what some members think of this horse.

[Zarkava]

Gerald, what’s the usual range for a Guineas winner (for the dosage index)?

Thanks

[Gerald]

Wrong thread, but I ain’t going to start a new one, so its going here.

Although I entered the Derby entries in a spreadsheet two nights a go, I’ve only just got around to entering the Dams. One that leapt out at me was Someone Special. She is a daughter of One In A Million, which makes her a half-sister to Milligram. Someone Special has had five foals with an RPR of 100+. She was born in 1983, and it says she died as a 24yo, so maybe she died in childbirth to

Herculean

. Herculean is in the hands of a Derby-winning trainer, William Haggis. He is also by a Derby winner, Sakhee. Looks likely we’re highly unlikely to see him this year, unless in a backend maiden. Only entries are a couple of Tattersalls sales races and the Derby. If he ever does turn up on the track, I’ll follow his progress.

edit: Whoops! Sakhee only came second.

[Gerald]

Don’t know ANYTHING about Kingsfort. I’ll look him up tomorrow. (I WORK for a living.) Exposing my ignorance.

Darren, are you saying that Segal said that, or Gosden?

I ain’t a breeding expert. I only started looking up pedigrees in January, when I found out about the Pedigree Query website via this Forum.

I shouldn’t be doing this stuff. Where is Sal?

I’ll look up the Dosage stuff, Zarkava, but it is compromised because it is too static, and hardly has any Chefs-de-Race that were born in the last 20 years or so. That is why I attempted to create my own. It is also why I don’t have the figures to hand – I never bothered looking them up in the first place (unlike for the Derby).

[Gerald]

Not too much notice should be taken of this. It is a classic example of backfitting. For example, Rainbow Quest and Sadler’s Wells are now classified as Chefs-de-Race, but they might not necessarily have been when some of their offspring or offspring’s offspring won the Guineas. So they show up in the figures now, but not at the time.

Dosage is based on the notion that there are pre-potent sires that have a significant affect on the breed.

I think there are about 240 or so CdRs. As the list goes, most people would pretty much agree with it. However, it has very few CdRs that were born in the past 20-25 years or so.

Here is a list of horses that aren’t CdRs that I think should be given serious consideration to:- Ahonoora, Danehill, Storm Cat, Giant’s Causeway, Galileo, Montjeu, Miswaki. This list is far from exhaustive – it is way past my bedtime, and just off the top of my head.

There are also others I’m not too sure about adding to the list.

There are 5 categories, which I might name slightly wrong:-

Brilliant (Speed)
Intermediate
Classic
Solid
Professional (Stamina)

If a CdR is the Sire it gets 16 points. Second generation 8, third 4, fourth 2. So, in each generation there is a total of 16 points, and a Grand Maximum Total of 64 points for the four generations.

These points are allocated to the above 5 categories. A CdR might be just in one category, or its points might get split between two categories. For example Nearco is BC – Brilliant and Classic.

Dosage Index

is basically Speed divided by Stamina. It is [ Brilliant plus Intermediate + half Classic ] divided by [ half Classic + Solid + Professional]
So in the case of Entrepreneur it would be [10+3+ 14] / [14+8+1] = 27/23 = 1.17

Centre of Distribution

is a measure of where the points are balanced, like a fulcrum, Range is +2 to -2. It is [2*B + I] – divided by total points.
So in the case of Entrepreneur it would be [2*10 + 3] – [8 + 2*1] divided by 50, equals (23-10)/50 = 13/50 = 0.26

Although Dosage Index gets the headlines, apparently afficionados consider Centre Of Distribution more significant. I received a PM from someone a few months ago saying that the DI for G1 or Classic performers comes in two distinct bands, depending upon whether the horse goes back to Unbreakable in the male-line or not. Need to re-read that, but not sure where to go from there.

Anyway, Zarkava, here goes.

B I C S P

TP

DI [/color:1t9h84zh] CD [/color:1t9h84zh]

CMP

Year Horse
11 5 10 0 0

26

4.20 [/color:1t9h84zh] 1.04 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.95

1993 Zafonic
13 3 12 0 0

28

3.67 [/color:1t9h84zh] 1.04 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.58

1992 Rodrigo De Triano
6 0 6 0 0

12

3.00 [/color:1t9h84zh] 1.00 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.57

1990 Tirol
5 3 8 0 0

16

3.00 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.81 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.55

2009 Sea The Stars
12 4 12 0 2

30

2.75 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.80 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.19

1991 Mystiko
9 1 8 0 2

20

2.33 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.75 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.18

2004 Haafhd
6 6 18 0 0

30

2.33 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.60 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.58

1994 Mister Baileys
7 5 17 0 1

30

2.16 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.57 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1

2002 Rock Of Gibraltar
9 2 13 2 0

26

2.06 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.69 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.59

2000 King’s Best
13 3 18 4 0

38

1.92 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.66 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.39

2008 Henrythenavigator
6 1 7 2 0

16

1.91 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.69 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.18

2007 Cockney Rebel
18 4 20 8 0

50

1.78 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.64 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.11

1998 King Of Kings
4 4 19 0 1

28

1.67 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.36 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.52

2006 George Washington
6 2 6 4 0

18

1.57 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.56 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.87

1999 Island Sands
11 6 15 10 0

42

1.40 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.43 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.16

1988 Doyoun
15 0 9 4 6

34

1.34 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.41 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.96

1989 Nashwan
10 3 28 8 1

50

1.17 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.26 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.16

1997 Entrepreneur
6 1 13 6 0

26

1.08 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.27 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.9

2005 Footstepsinthesand
9 1 21 9 0

40

1.05 [/color:1t9h84zh] 0.25 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.15

2003 Refuse To Bend
5 1 10 4 6

26

0.73 [/color:1t9h84zh] -0.19 [/color:1t9h84zh]

1.05

1996 Mark Of Esteem
2 1 12 7 2

24

0.60 [/color:1t9h84zh] -0.25 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.82

2001 Golan
2 0 10 6 2

20

0.54 [/color:1t9h84zh] -0.30 [/color:1t9h84zh]

0.7

1995 Pennekamp

[darren83]

Don’t know ANYTHING about Kingsfort. I’ll look him up tomorrow. (I WORK for a living.) Exposing my ignorance.

Darren, are you saying that Segal said that, or Gosden?

I ain’t a breeding expert. I only started looking up pedigrees in January, when I found out about the Pedigree Query website via this Forum.

I shouldn’t be doing this stuff. Where is Sal?

I’ll look up the Dosage stuff, Zarkava, but it is compromised because it is too static, and hardly has any Chefs-de-Race that were born in the last 20 years or so. That is why I attempted to create my own. It is also why I don’t have the figures to hand – I never bothered looking them up in the first place (unlike for the Derby).

What Segal said was that there be people saying Showcasing will not get a mile.But they were saying the same thing about Raven’s Pass.That is what Segal said.

[Gerald]

I was told that at a mile there are two distinct bands of Dosage Index, depending upon whether the horse derived from Nearco or Unbreakable. Well here follow the figures, and it doesn’t seem to work for the 2000 Guineas. Looks like Dosage is a busted flush for the 2000 Guineas.

Hyperion Line

B I C S P TP DI [/color:1eyfykjd] CD [/color:1eyfykjd] CMP Year Horse
6 0 6 0 0 12 3.00 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.00 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.57 1990 Tirol

Nearco Line

13 3 12 0 0 28 3.67 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.04 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.58 1992 Rodrigo De Triano
5 3 8 0 0 16 3.00 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.81 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.55 2009 Sea The Stars
12 4 12 0 2 30 2.75 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.80 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.19 1991 Mystiko
9 1 8 0 2 20 2.33 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.75 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.18 2004 Haafhd
6 6 18 0 0 30 2.33 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.60 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.58 1994 Mister Baileys
7 5 17 0 1 30 2.16 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.57 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1 2002 Rock Of Gibraltar
6 1 7 2 0 16 1.91 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.69 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.18 2007 Cockney Rebel
18 4 20 8 0 50 1.78 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.64 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.11 1998 King Of Kings
4 4 19 0 1 28 1.67 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.36 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.52 2006 George Washington
6 2 6 4 0 18 1.57 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.56 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.87 1999 Island Sands
11 6 15 10 0 42 1.40 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.43 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.16 1988 Doyoun
15 0 9 4 6 34 1.34 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.41 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.96 1989 Nashwan
10 3 28 8 1 50 1.17 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.26 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.16 1997 Entrepreneur
6 1 13 6 0 26 1.08 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.27 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.9 2005 Footstepsinthesand
9 1 21 9 0 40 1.05 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.25 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.15 2003 Refuse To Bend
5 1 10 4 6 26 0.73 [/color:1eyfykjd] -0.19 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.05 1996 Mark Of Esteem
2 1 12 7 2 24 0.60 [/color:1eyfykjd] -0.25 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.82 2001 Golan

Unbreakable Line

11 5 10 0 0 26 4.20 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.04 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.95 1993 Zafonic
9 2 13 2 0 26 2.06 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.69 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.59 2000 King’s Best
13 3 18 4 0 38 1.92 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.66 [/color:1eyfykjd] 1.39 2008 Henrythenavigator
2 0 10 6 2 20 0.54 [/color:1eyfykjd] -0.30 [/color:1eyfykjd] 0.7 1995 Pennekamp

edit: I suppose that if we look at Centre Of Distribution instead, and ignore the extremes, then for Nearco they are congregated between 0.25 and 0.8, and for Unbreakable between 0.7 and 1[/color:1eyfykjd]

EDIT: NB – yet another error, I originally had Henrythenavigator and Sea The Stars in the wrong lines. Typo error in spreadsheet.[/color:1eyfykjd]

[darren83]

I just got a email from Tom Segal on Showcasing and this is what he said.

Gosden’s a strange one and my guess is he won’t run him in the guineas but he might be forced too if he has nothing else and we now know the horse is top class.

What you guys think on what Tom said

[Gerald]

I don’t know how many of you have read Nietzsche’s The Birth Of Tragedy Out Of The Spirit Of Music, but for the past seven months I have been suffering from a Hamletesque malaise after I was told there were two different bands of dosage for milers.

How can this be, when dosage is supposed to be universal? This is all hypothesis at the moment, as we are only at the start of our journey, and we don’t know for sure at the moment that the statement is correct.

When talking about Unbreakable, I suppose we are essentially talking about Mr Prospector. Pennekamp is not Mr Prospector – he comes from Bering, Arctic Tern, Sea Bird, so it is not surprising he is different from the other Unbreakables. Dosage in its modern form is American, and therefore concentrates on dirt racing. It is a well known phenomenon that horses can stretch out further on Turf than Dirt. So my original supposition(s) are that Mr Prospectors can run further on Turf than Dirt, and then we only get la creme de la creme over here anyway and that class sees them out.

Time for bed.

[Gerald]

I just got a email from Tom Segal on Showcasing and this is what he said.

Gosden’s a strange one and my guess is he won’t run him in the guineas but he might be forced too if he has nothing else and we now know the horse is top class.

What you guys think on what Tom said

Yes, that makes sense. All the trainers bemoan a lack of programme for 3yo sprinters. They do have Pavilion Stakes (Ascot), Palace House, Temple. But it don’t have quite the same prestige, does it? Also Gros Chene pre Royal Ascot as well.

Maybe it would be in the horse’s long term interests not to be rushed for the Guineas, but it is only a mile, albeit a tough one, for goodness sake. I can’t see that it can do much harm, so long as the horse has an injury-free preparation.

Kingsfort is looking good for the National Stakes on September 12th.

edit: not sure why you keep asking for my opinion, when you’re in correspondence with Segal.

[Zarkava]

Well I’m not sure when Gosden came back from the States but between 1997 and 2009 he’s only had 4 runners in the 2000 (all unplaced).

Gerald, I did something similar to your Derby sibling trend for the Guineas. It was going so well but Island Sands had 2 older siblings without blacktype or 100RPR+, Rock of Gibraltar 4 and Cockney Rebel 6 but I haven’t checked between 1989 and 1994 so there may be others.

The only breeding trends I can find for the Guineas are to oppose horses with non-Group 1 winning sires (Dansili, Elusive Quality, Bertolini, Danetime, etc) and that anything with less than 16.5 for the Sire and Damsire index is up against it. 1-5-43 between 95 and 09. A lot more are running in the race than before. This year’s renewal had 7 with less than 16.5 and they all finished in the last 10.

4 of the 5 placed horses finished 3rd and other was Vital Equine (2nd) who obviously stole a massive lead on the field before coming back to them. The winner was Island Sands with 15.3. The next highest winner is Sea The Stars with 16.9 followed by Cockney Rebel on 17.1.

Also worth nothing that the last 8 Guineas winners were all entered in the Dewhurst at the initial entry stage (that’s the list I’ve been working off to try and find the winner). I’ve got it down to 28 with question marks over 8 of them and 7 have yet to run. Kingsfort is definitely the most interesting horse to follow on the list and I’m looking forward to the reappearances of Stunning View and Awzaan as well. I’ll go through it again though just to make sure I’ve not left anything important off…

[Zarkava]

Kingsfort is looking good for the National Stakes on September 12th.

Yeah it’s worth noting that the only 2 horses since 1995 to find the National Stakes on their 2nd appearance were Refuse to Bend and Sinndar.

[Gerald]

Yes, I’m in love with Kingsfort as well. Thanks Darren. I was going to knock out a post about him tonight but got diverted by Athletics, Cider, and the Mela on BBC Interactive.

[Gerald]

The only breeding trends I can find for the Guineas are to oppose horses with non-Group 1 winning sires (Dansili, Elusive Quality, Bertolini, Danetime, etc)

Aha, so you’re not excluding Oasis Dream.

Kingsfort’s sire has won G1 ( Breeders’ Cup Mile) , but hasn’t sired a G1 winner yet! (I know you probably know that, but other people read this as well.)

[Zarkava]

I’ve just backed Arcano at 17s. I pretty much wrote him off for running in the July Stakes but upon closer inspection he looks very good indeed.

Between 1995 and 2009 the only once-raced horses to be placed in the July Stakes were Air Express, Mull of Kintyre, Byron, River Proud and Sayif, ie. all extremely talented horses. 2 of them Group 1 winners, the other 3 placed in Group 1s (well, Mull of Kintyre was 4th a couple of times).

His form’s working out well with Showcasing running very well in the Gimcrack and Orpen Grey putting in a respectable effort and the latter and Arcano were miles clear in the July. Oasis Dream is getting better at stud year after year and it’s simply a matter of time before he sires a Guineas winner. Maktoum’s snapped him up since and now runs in the Morny on Sunday. I’m taking a risk since he’s up against Canford Cliffs but if he wins he’ll be something like 4s for the Guineas or maybe even shorter.

Aside from him there’s very little that catches my attention. The Guineas winner will almost certainly have run by September 10th and aside horses like Canford Cliffs, Steinbeck, Alfred Nobel and Arcano, there’s really nothing that interests me for the Guineas and not even the former 3 of those 4 interest me particularly.

[darren83]

Gerald.I like to read different views from Tom Segal or your views as well. All i need now is the email address of the gorgeous Hayley Turner then i be really happy

Will you do Kingsfort today as well.

There is a O’Brien newcomer racing today called.Dynasty.Has he got any big race entries.And where can i entries for the big races in 09.

[Author]

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