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Not sure whether that was a sort of rhetorical question. Also not sure whether I should let someone more qualified have the opportunity to reply first. On the other hand, don’t want to ignore it.
I was going to say that with age one tries not to get too excited about precocity. However, Fist is older than me, and he is very taken with Canford Cliffs. Not too sure though that he will train on myself (CC, that is).
Winning with a burst of speed over 7f or a mile, combined with a good pedigree and a famous owner. Not too bothered about the trainer, as they all seem to spend 5 years as Assistant Trainers before they launch out on their own.
Arazi
1000 Guineas entries are out. 2000 Guineas should be available in 30 minutes but I need to sleep!
Annoyingly for me, Footstepsinthesand has been given a sire index figure of 6.5f, which puts Sent From Heaven, my pick for the last 5 months, just under the required level of stamina at 15.6f. Urgh. Nevertheless, I will not be laying off any of my stake. That’ll only lead to me kicking someone else’s cat if she wins and I’ve laid off my stake, a la Mon Mome…
I will go over them in more detail again, just to make sure, but at the moment my main ‘shortlist’ is as follows;
Astrophysical Jet
Electric Feel
Hibaayeb (strictly speaking eliminated but her profile is too similar to Speciosa’s to ignore)
Joanna
Lady Darshaan
Tabassum
You’ll Be Mine (AOB always brings his fillies on run for run, very remote chance of his seemingly main Oaks horse being fully fit for this)With question marks over (for various reasons, whether they be quality or breaking a trend by a very small amount);
Ayun Tara
Blue Maiden
Distinctive
Lady Of The Desert (heading to Longchamp?)
Marie De Medici
Music Show
Seta
Termagant (staying in Ireland?)Tbh I’m rather fixated on Tabassum. Stoute has a great record with fillies, her sire has been brilliant in his first few seasons and who knows, had she been on the far side in the Rockfel, she may well be unbeaten and 7/1 or so. Fantastic bet.
Zarkava, the Racing Post Flat Stamina Index is the average of all wins by 3yo+ progeny in Britain & Ireland, or something like that.
Foostepsinthesands’ should be the average of these 4 wins since Jan 1 :-
Loveinthesand Mister Baileys 1 0 1 2,457 65
Premium Charge Woodman 1 3 5 3,286 60
Sandy Toes Mind Games 1 0 4 1,899 48
Step To It Ashkalani 1 0 1 1,774 52I wouldn’t take too much notice of it so far – how many 3yos are running at 10f+ at the moment?
For the new sires, I’ve been giving Guineas winners a guesstimate FSI of 9f, and Derby Winners 11f.
I’ve just had a look at a batch of Guinea winners, and maybe I should reduce the 9f to 8.5f.
Tirol 8.6
Mystiko 8.4
Rodrigo De Triano
Japan
Zafonic 8.6
Mister Baileys 9.9
Pennekanmp 8.1We have got 2yr olds out at the Curragh in March
Crazy stuff tbh….but the strangest thing is that AOB has runners.
Holy Roman Emperor stock has impressed all especially since they seem very forward and racy.
Emperor Hadrian(HRE)
High Award(HRE)
Pirateer(DD)Tom Dascombe has a truck coming over and has the Antonius Pius Colt and Bolger has a few(horses ran awful at Dundalk last week)
I get the impression that Ballydoyle are pretty keen and forward to get going early this year by these entries and the well drawn Emperor Hadrian take all the beating if market vibes are good
Ballydoyle now issue statements on Coolmore Website about their runners.
Fantastic news imo.
"we think Emperor Hadrian is a lovely colt with plenty
of speed. He has never worked on grass yet, he is just ready to start and we hope that he runs a nice race."Plenty of speed good draw….should bolt up
They give nothing away…but little changes in statements and reading through the lines you can get a feeling.
Sounds like the 4 in the 3yr old maiden are no good. The one in the fillies doesn’t sound much good either.
Well with Steinbeck gone, Kingsfort’s the only realistic contender left. I can’t possibly put all my eggs in the Godolphin basket, so I’m looking elsewhere.
Placed Racing Post Trophy runners have a fantastic record, with all 4 going on to place. Although I firmly believe Elusive Pimpernel isn’t fast enough for 8f, many a Guineas winner has ended up being too slow for a mile later in the season. Henrythenavigator the obvious example.
I’m therefore siding with him. I read an excellent idea on a different thread earlier. Somebody put £5 a week on a horse (Gerald, I think). It’s not an amount you notice and it begins to build up very, very nicely.
I’ll employ these tactics with Elusive Pimpernel starting today.
That was my plan with Naaqoos last year, but I aborted it. I quoted someone today on the Cheltenham bets thread who had been doing it with Big Zeb.
Nibani completely flopped last night at Windsor. Good thing I laid my stake on him off last season.
For some reason I’ve managed to overlook Rashaad, unless he was a supplementary entry at the last stage. He’s rated 95, 5 lower than what seems to be the usual level required as a 2yo, but you need to go back to 2001 to find a once-raced-juvenile runner to win the Derby. High Rise and Lammtarra were other recent ones.
Anyway, there’s nothing wrong with his breeding and a big price at 130s and 140s.
Edit – Just realised, been a total idiot and not adjusted the RPR from the Derby entry page. He’s rated 81. He was also backed from 10/1 to 3/1 on his winning debut.
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Rashaad well thought off, some of us are on at extremely large prices.
Er, looks like I arrived a little late. Rashaad was supplemented at the entry stage last week Zarkava. £6 @ 142.05 doesn’t seem as big as others have got. I’m not giving the Derby any consideration, and he and Jan Vermeer are the only two I’ve backed, and I’ve forgotten what the specific reason was why I backed the latter.
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