Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Trends, Research And Notebooks › 2YO Summary thread 2016
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September 29, 2016 at 16:52 #1265106
Just googled Mellisa mate she’s a bit of a knockout
Why aren’t ITV racing headhunting these french babes? It would almost make having to put up with Mick Fitz bearable
And no I have no idea what the other girl is called
September 29, 2016 at 21:31 #1265139The Moyglare form should really be discarded in the case of Promise To Be True. There was a gale force wind blowing across the track, making for very difficult conditions for 2yo fillies, particularly those on the rail like Promise To Be True, who was knocked about by the wind, but not by Ryan Moore. You only have to look at Brave Anna who was a 10L second last in the Moyglare but won the Cheveley Park less than two weeks later.
September 29, 2016 at 22:40 #1265152The Moyglare form should really be discarded in the case of Promise To Be True. There was a gale force wind blowing across the track, making for very difficult conditions for 2yo fillies, particularly those on the rail like Promise To Be True, who was knocked about by the wind, but not by Ryan Moore. You only have to look at Brave Anna who was a 10L second last in the Moyglare but won the Cheveley Park less than two weeks later.
I believe you have already made this assumption at least once before. Of course you might be right but the horses mentioned might also have just run poorly. Having already disappointed before it is hard to use Brave Anna as a reliable yardstick. If it was so obvious as you seem to imply then why was she a million to win the Cheveley Park even though she had a verdict over Queen Kindly?
September 29, 2016 at 22:42 #1265153Just reading that Argenterie apparently scoped dirty after the Rockfel. Did they also scope Martin Dwyer? Surely one of the strangest rides of the week?
September 30, 2016 at 21:46 #1265230Brave Anna won the Albany, then she had a racecourse galop in the Debutante after returning from a break, which is fairly typical of Aidan’s modus operandi, he doesn’t mind his horses being beaten, particularly when he has two others to fight out the finish. The Moglare was her only disappointing run. She was a big price in the Cheveley Park because Lady Aurelia was expected to hack up, because of the Frankel hype in the case of Queen Kindly, and because her connections regarded her as more of a 7f filly, hence her run in the Moyglare, the return to 6f was exploratory. And of course, people are indeed very quick to write off a horse after one poor run.
Promise To Be True and Rhododendron had both very comprehensively beaten Intricately in separate previous races. Joseph O’Brien volunteered the information in his post-race interview that the conditions were an advantage to his filly. So, not just me who thinks the conditions cast doubt on the result.
I’m not suggesting that Promose To Be True is another Minding, or even Ballydoyle, but I think she’s better than her run in the Moyglare, just like Brave Anna.September 30, 2016 at 22:00 #1265234The moyglare was a difficult race to judge with the more fancied horses not on top form whether due to tactics,the wind or just having an off day. Promise to be true is very highly regarded hence she is going to France and not the second or third in the moyglare. Seems a tip in itself to my eyes.
October 1, 2016 at 10:23 #1265302I just wonder if you guys are just backing her on the O’Brien factor and nothing else.
Is there anything about the way she’s won or what she’s beaten that’s particularly impressed you?
Then again just backing O’Brien on the name alone, there are worst systems.
Will be interesting to see how Wuheida and Dabyah run.
October 1, 2016 at 12:11 #1265325I just wonder if you guys are just backing her on the O’Brien factor and nothing else.
Is there anything about the way she’s won or what she’s beaten that’s particularly impressed you?
Then again just backing O’Brien on the name alone, there are worst systems.
Will be interesting to see how Wuheida and Dabyah run.
Coolmore have been breeding or buying over 50 Galileo fillies every year for the past few years, all with beautiful pedigrees, and Aidan gets the pick of them. So his best is likely to be very good, hence the top Galileo fillies we’ve been seeing at Ballydoyle recently. So yes, there are worse systems.
October 1, 2016 at 12:15 #1265326But you haven’t answered my question, about whether there is anything about this filly in particular that impresses you
I get the impression that you would just back any ballydoyle filly in this blind
October 1, 2016 at 14:47 #1265349But you haven’t answered my question, about whether there is anything about this filly in particular that impresses you
I get the impression that you would just back any ballydoyle filly in this blind
Have you seen her first two races? I take it you haven’t if you’re asking me. Despite being very raw and green, she won very easily, and she demonstrated a very taking turn of foot.
But regardless of that, personally I wouldn’t see anything wrong in supporting a horse perceived by her connections to be the best of 50+ blue-bred Galileo fillies, I take it that’s not scientific enough? Or maybe it’s just O’Brien fillies? It would be OK if it was Gosden or Stoute or someone else?October 1, 2016 at 15:12 #1265354Fair enough. She obviously has an outstanding chance tomorrow, good luck with your bet.
October 1, 2016 at 15:27 #1265355Thank you, but maybe not an outstanding chance, just a good one. It’s a strong race, unlike the colts’ version which is G3 standard.
October 1, 2016 at 21:12 #1265371Toulifaut sold tonight at the pre Arc Horses in Training Sale for 1.8 million euros. Even more interesting now to see how she goes tomorrow.
October 2, 2016 at 11:41 #1265414Thank you, but maybe not an outstanding chance, just a good one. It’s a strong race, unlike the colts’ version which is G3 standard.
I think you are being kind to the colts race! Both sides seem to have turned up with second division material. Arguably, the worst renewal I can remember. The favourite should be difficult to beat but it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if National Defense made the bigger step forward. He might just have found himself behind the best of the French last time. Sadly, I have a nasty feeling jockeyship might be the deciding factor.
The Boussac is the quality race. Some of the fancied runners haven’t got the best of the draw. I think the likes of Senga and Normandel are interesting but even if they have the ability you have to wonder if they have the experience for a test like this?
October 2, 2016 at 13:21 #1265420Thank you, but maybe not an outstanding chance, just a good one. It’s a strong race, unlike the colts’ version which is G3 standard.
I think you are being kind to the colts race! Both sides seem to have turned up with second division material. Arguably, the worst renewal I can remember. The favourite should be difficult to beat but it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if National Defense made the bigger step forward. He might just have found himself behind the best of the French last time. Sadly, I have a nasty feeling jockeyship might be the deciding factor.
The Boussac is the quality race. Some of the fancied runners haven’t got the best of the draw. I think the likes of Senga and Normandel are interesting but even if they have the ability you have to wonder if they have the experience for a test like this?
Well Senga did have the ability but Pasquier contrived to lose the race in the first furlong. Horse jumped well enough but the jock managed to rein her back into the worst position on the track. She did very well to finish so close.
October 2, 2016 at 13:48 #1265427Well, Promise To Be True used up a lot of gas to get up with the pace from her outside draw, and then fly jumped a furling out, Ryan had to get her reorganised, she finished with a rattle.
October 2, 2016 at 13:56 #1265430National Defense won very easily despite running away with the jock. Akihiro might be very good.
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