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Fair Eva should have gone to the Moyglare and then been put away for next season.
Connections ballsed it up big time and the filly went backwards.
“Go steady with her Roger” was ignored.
“She needs 7F now Roger” was ignored.
Excuses, excuses and excuses is the result but this filly won’t even run in the Guineas now in my opinion.
Young horses need placing correctly and Fair Eva wasn’t. 16/1 for the Guineas now makes zero appeal. Boylesports show her at 6/1, which is surely either laziness in changing it, or downright taking the piss.
She’s now run at 7f Steve, and did a lot worse than she did over 6f at York. What possible damage did running her at York do compared to what would’ve happened in Ireland? What is the evidence that had Fair Eva run in the Moyglare the same thing wouldn’t have happened?
Talking about “placing young horses correctly”, some two year olds are not up to travelling to other countries that early in their career or ever. Fair Eva is a Frankel and Sir Henry said he’d never run the Great horse in another country because of that very reason. Could it be Roger knew something you didn’t Steve?
Leave it out Ginger, this is not about what I know compared to Roger Charlton.
Two top jockeys gave him advice and he ignored it. You are trying to make it about what Roger knows compared to me and that is an idiotic slant to take.
The fact is that the horse has been pumped twice at odds on, following placing and number of races that were against jockey advice.
You said yourself that there was no reason why Fair Eva would not be “Back to her brilliant best” after her Lowther reversal, now reasons are being offered up.
Have you binned your Guineas ticket yet?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Do you think they would get stuck into Taj Mahal though? Surely the likes of Tabor would have more sense than that.
Taj Mahal is a good example of how breeding isn’t an exact science and the odd dud will slip through the net. He is bred to be exceptional but simply isn’t. Actually on the flip side, can someone name me a horse that had ordinary breeding and went on to win big races or a classic?
Taj Mahal works very well at home, but he doesn’t translate it to the racecourse. That happens with a fair proportion of horses.
That may well be the case but when you have seen a horse beaten four times as favourite, isn’t it a bit risky going in again?
Well, Peeping Fawn took four attempts to break her maiden, and she was a short priced favourite on her 2nd, 3rd and fourth starts, look what she went on to do.
And still sticking with the same trainer, look what Cougar Mountain did today. Aidan has always said that he shows them a lot at home, and today he came good.
The penny is taking a while to drop with Taj Mahal, he is a particularly big babyish type, but who knows when the penny will drop, yesterday might have been the day. He might be best left til next year, when he grows into his frame, but they seem to be anxious to get a win into him, perhaps because they think he is good enough to have early season targets next year.Or maybe he’s just rubbish.
Someone mentioned on the betfair forum that he thought Fair Eva was overrated based on her Ascot run.
He thought the speed figure she produced there wasn’t that great.
In which case it makes it likely that any arguments about her placing are moot as she wasn’t much kop in the first place.
Frankel Hype?
Here we go again. You sh!t on connections and am again not allowed to defend them.
Everything’s not all about you Steve.
Am just pointing out the possibility of a Frankel filly not being up to travelling to Ireland (like father like daughter).
Jockeys wouldn’t know that, so their “advice” in that case would’ve been null and void.When someone asks questions you can’t answer, you lose your rag and want to make it personal.
I’m out.
Value Is EverythingSomeone mentioned on the betfair forum that he thought Fair Eva was overrated based on her Ascot run.
He thought the speed figure she produced there wasn’t that great.
In which case it makes it likely that any arguments about her placing are moot as she wasn’t much kop in the first place.
Frankel Hype?
The Ascot race was an exceptional time performance for that time of year Judge. The betfair forum bloke is wrong. Seems she’s recoiled from that run.
Value Is EverythingAnd still sticking with the same trainer, look what Cougar Mountain did today.
I wouldn’t be getting too excited about Cougar Mountain as he managed to find himself in a Group race where there were almost more negatives than positives about the whole field.
i still stick by my assumption(after lowther) maybe running her again on quick is/was the problem.
What you guys think of Royal lodge and Beresford tomorrow and sunday
I haven’t looked at the Beresford but on the basis that it looks a terrible renewal and just anything’s possible at the moment, I (like connections) have taken a flyer with Kings Gift. Being out of a mare who stayed two miles he should at least improve for the extra furlong.
So the lovely Jac and I were at Newmarket to witness a disappointing run from Fair Eva. I suppose it is inevitable that people will want to point the finger. To be honest there seems little excuse on the day apart from that she looked to run flat. Pat Smullen thinks she needs to mature a bit and perhaps he is right. She certainly ran well below what her connections thought she would and the line through Miss Infinity who she beat by 6l last time would seem to confirm that she was someway below the form of earlier in the season. As Ginge says, horses are not machines and this is often a funny time of year. Throw away your tickets if you like but she is not the first odds on favourite to lose a race and she won’t be the last. Perhaps the others have caught her up or perhaps she was just not quite so good as we thought she was. Perhaps she will bounce back next year and show the form that impressed so many of us earlier in the season.
Has RC made mistakes in campaigning her? Arguable. Has his handling of her contributed to her run today? Doubtful. Is she finished as a classic contender? Time will tell but she certainly now has plenty to prove.
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And still sticking with the same trainer, look what Cougar Mountain did today.
I wouldn’t be getting too excited about Cougar Mountain as he managed to find himself in a Group race where there were almost more negatives than positives about the whole field.
Felt like in that race the far side were massively favoured. That could be completely wrong but looked like they were racing on a quicker piece of ground than those racing down the middle.
It’s got nothing to do with Charlton, she just wasn’t that good in the first place. She was primed to shine in her first couple of races, and the others have now caught up.
And still sticking with the same trainer, look what Cougar Mountain did today.
I wouldn’t be getting too excited about Cougar Mountain as he managed to find himself in a Group race where there were almost more negatives than positives about the whole field.
Felt like in that race the far side were massively favoured. That could be completely wrong but looked like they were racing on a quicker piece of ground than those racing down the middle.
The going was good to firm, would quicker than that be an advantage? A lot of horses wouldn’t let themselves down on firm. Also, Fastnet Rocks generally prefer it on the softer side.
Looking at the replay, I think that this is more a case of others catching her up than of her running flat – or even trainer error. The first thing that struck me visually looking at the Rockfel was that she didn’t dominate the field size-wise, whereas when you look back at the Princess Margaret video she did – that plus the stride length (i.e. relative power) are what produces that impressive win. She was head and shoulders the biggest and strongest of those fillies at Ascot, whereas today, in racing, the field looked much of a muchness size wise and she was beaten (easily) by a filly with a superior ‘kick’. This is what happens at this time of year – early season relative maturity doesn’t necessarily travel through to the end of the season and earlier form lines (FE v Miss Infinity v Nation’s Alexander) may be misleading. For me, this is as good as she currently is – a good filly but not a very good one. Maybe she will improve over the winter, but I’m not convinced.
Fair Eva should have gone to the Moyglare and then been put away for next season.
Connections ballsed it up big time and the filly went backwards.
“Go steady with her Roger” was ignored.
“She needs 7F now Roger” was ignored.
Excuses, excuses and excuses is the result but this filly won’t even run in the Guineas now in my opinion.
Young horses need placing correctly and Fair Eva wasn’t. 16/1 for the Guineas now makes zero appeal. Boylesports show her at 6/1, which is surely either laziness in changing it, or downright taking the piss.
She’s now run at 7f Steve, and did a lot worse than she did over 6f at York. What possible damage did running her at York do compared to what would’ve happened in Ireland? What is the evidence that had Fair Eva run in the Moyglare the same thing wouldn’t have happened?
Talking about “placing young horses correctly”, some two year olds are not up to travelling to other countries that early in their career or ever. Fair Eva is a Frankel and Sir Henry said he’d never run the Great horse in another country because of that very reason. Could it be Roger knew something you didn’t Steve?
Why aren’t these questions ok?
It seems that on a discussion forum am only allowed to agree and not ask any normal questions.
Value Is EverythingLooking at the replay, I think that this is more a case of others catching her up than of her running flat – or even trainer error. The first thing that struck me visually looking at the Rockfel was that she didn’t dominate the field size-wise, whereas when you look back at the Princess Margaret video she did – that plus the stride length (i.e. relative power) are what produces that impressive win. She was head and shoulders the biggest and strongest of those fillies at Ascot, whereas today, in racing, the field looked much of a muchness size wise and she was beaten (easily) by a filly with a superior ‘kick’. This is what happens at this time of year – early season relative maturity doesn’t necessarily travel through to the end of the season and earlier form lines (FE v Miss Infinity v Nation’s Alexander) may be misleading. For me, this is as good as she currently is – a good filly but not a very good one. Maybe she will improve over the winter, but I’m not convinced.
The theory doesn’t stack up. Fair enough the winner might be improving but Fair Eva has failed to run to her form with horses who are even more exposed than she is. If you trust Charlton not to have made an error with her, then you must also trust him when he says she didn’t run her race today.
I am confident that Fair Eva will be awarded a rating for her run today that sits several pounds below her current mark.
I personally believe that these test of speed races on fast ground and sharp tracks can have a negative effect on young horses. I have had a fair amount of success by avoiding 2yo horses who run on the fast going and sharp tracks in the USA. I believe it leaves a mark on the horses and there is a clear and striking statistic that the 2yo colts from the UK who run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf are very disappointing the next season.
Hit It A Bomb is the latest incumbent of that statistic and I warned at the start of the flat season of the statistics going back over several years now being a factor worth considering. Hit It A Bomb appeared later in the season than intended and missed his Classic entries. He has run twice, started favourite twice and been beaten twice, with the handicapper already trimming 3lbs off his official rating.
I feel Fair Eva was taken out of her comfort zone against pure sprinters in the Lowther and it has had a detrimental affect on her, which was what I was concerned about when they targeted the race. It was a furlong further today but to me she just never stretched on the ground today. Perhaps she is feeling something when asked to lengthen.
It’s all about opinions but I am not using the benefit of hindsight here to formulate a theory. I stated my concerns coming into today’s race well in advance. Fair Eva now has plenty to prove.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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