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Before getting too excited about Wuheida winning the Rockfel I’m going to see how Hugo Palmer’s Unforgetable Filly gets on at Newmarket’s first day of the Cambrideshire Meeting in the Small Breeder’s Fillies Conditions Stakes.
With Dabyah probably going for the Fillies Mile Frankie Dettori will be riding Blending for John Gosden, three fillies that she beat last time out have gone on to win but have not progressed beyond Class 4.Unforgetable Filly is better than the Class 5 race she won easily last time out, it was an impressive performance to win her Maiden and scoop a £10,000 bonus into the bargain and with Jim Crowley on board again she is my choice.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Intelligence cross looked very good in his late run in Ireland and seems the value in the middle park. Mehmas will have to be a very tough cookie to win with the number of races he has had. Blue point was impressive in his last run but whether he should be as short a price is debatable. Intelligence cross clearly didn’t handle goodwood track and should the going be on the decent side he must have a good chance of being there at the finish.
Intelligence cross looked very good in his late run in Ireland and seems the value in the middle park. Mehmas will have to be a very tough cookie to win with the number of races he has had. Blue point was impressive in his last run but whether he should be as short a price is debatable. Intelligence cross clearly didn’t handle goodwood track and should the going be on the decent side he must have a good chance of being there at the finish.
Aidan O’Brien was interviewed before Intelligence Cross’ win in the Round Tower and he never mentioned Caravaggio’s setback. But he did say that Intelligence Cross would need the run. It was only after Intelligence Cross had won so impressively on ground that wouldn’t have been ideal, that Aidan mentioned the setback and that Intelligence Cross would run in the Middle Park regardless of whether or not Caravaggio ran. I think that Intelligence Cross demonstrated that day that he would be a very able deputy for Caravaggio in the Middle Park and they decided that they didn’t need to rush his recovery to make the race. The going on Saturday is likely to suit Intelligence Cross, I think the race will be between him and Blue Point and he’s better value than Blue Point.
With Dabyah probably going for the Fillies Mile Frankie Dettori will be riding Blending for John Gosden, three fillies that she beat last time out have gone on to win but have not progressed beyond Class 4.
Last time out Blending ran an absolute shocker in the May Hill. The moment she was asked to pick up she appeared to engage reverse gear and was pretty much allowed to coast home. You wouldn’t have thought any punter would be thinking about backing her after that performance.
I backed Rich Legacy in the May Hill and was a bit puzzled Blending was favourite, as the Beckett filly had group form and Blending had quite a gap to close coming from her maiden win and stepping up in trip, given that Rich Legacy seemed to be crying out for the mile in her two previous starts.
The Racing Post actually gave Blending a 2 lb rise from 85 to 87 for her May Hill run, and while there has been enough cautionary talk about these RPR’s for juveniles, the official handicapper has rated Blending 89, so they are in reasonable agreement regarding her talent level at this stage.
Blending is not in the race Unforgetable Filly is in on Thursday and there are only five runners. Urban Fox sets the standard on her 3rd place in the May Hill and she is rated 98 on RPR and 99 on OR. Unforgetable Filly is much less exposed though and it’s all about whether you believe her RPR of 82 and/or believe she can close the gap on the fairly consistent but probably only smart filly who has experience on her side.
It would all depend on the odds offered as to which way I would go in a situation like this. Some will see one outcome and others the reverse, which is as it should be.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With Dabyah probably going for the Fillies Mile Frankie Dettori will be riding Blending for John Gosden, three fillies that she beat last time out have gone on to win but have not progressed beyond Class 4.
Last time out Blending ran an absolute shocker in the May Hill. The moment she was asked to pick up she appeared to engage reverse gear and was pretty much allowed to coast home. You wouldn’t have thought any punter would be thinking about backing her after that performance.
Agreed and with Blending now out of the race and leaving only 5 runners I will stay with my original choice Unforgetable Filly to beat the more exposed Urban Fox even though she has earnt her black type in Group company she has failed to win anything above Class 5. This race will be an easier target for her but I will stay faithful to Hugo Palmer’s filly unless there are any dramatic negatives in the pre-parade or paddock on Thursday.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Blending is not in the race Unforgetable Filly is in on Thursday and there are only five runners. Urban Fox sets the standard on her 3rd place in the May Hill and she is rated 98 on RPR and 99 on OR. Unforgetable Filly is much less exposed though and it’s all about whether you believe her RPR of 82 and/or believe she can close the gap on the fairly consistent but probably only smart filly who has experience on her side.
It would all depend on the odds offered as to which way I would go in a situation like this. Some will see one outcome and others the reverse, which is as it should be.
Even though only 5 runners now it’s a tricky little race to call Steve but I always like to go with a filly who looks like she’s progressing regardless of that RPR thing that you and Ginge like to talk about and that’s Unforgetable Filly.
At least I will have the advantage of being there on the day to see how they turn out before I throw my money at the bookie ;) A great 3 days racing ahead.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Blending is not in the race Unforgetable Filly is in on Thursday and there are only five runners. Urban Fox sets the standard on her 3rd place in the May Hill and she is rated 98 on RPR and 99 on OR. Unforgetable Filly is much less exposed though and it’s all about whether you believe her RPR of 82 and/or believe she can close the gap on the fairly consistent but probably only smart filly who has experience on her side.
It would all depend on the odds offered as to which way I would go in a situation like this. Some will see one outcome and others the reverse, which is as it should be.
Even though only 5 runners now it’s a tricky little race to call Steve but I always like to go with a filly who looks like she’s progressing regardless of that RPR thing that you and Ginge like to talk about and that’s Unforgetable Filly.
At least I will have the advantage of being there on the day to see how they turn out before I throw my money at the bookie
A great 3 days racing ahead.These horses are not running handicaps so the ratings at this stage are really no more than a guide/talking point. Nobody has to take them at face value.
Blending may have gone up in the ratings because she was perceived to be running against better rivals but looking to the future there was zero encouragement in that performance. Personally, I would be wary about getting too excited about the May Hill form.
You make a good point about actually seeing the horses beforehand. Television so often struggles to do that for the armchair viewer.
Last time out Blending ran an absolute shocker in the May Hill. The moment she was asked to pick up she appeared to engage reverse gear and was pretty much allowed to coast home. You wouldn’t have thought any punter would be thinking about backing her after that performance.
As far as Blending is concerned Stilvi, her last run might not be quite as bad as it looked. Although there are some mile horses on the dam’s pedigree they include Kingman, who although best known as a miler speed was his greatest asset and put up top class sprinting fractions in those races. It’s also the family of Champion Sprinter Oasis Dream. As you rightly say, she did not find much after travelling in to the race quite smoothly. She had only won a maiden and the price was all about promise/potential. It’s possible lack of stamina meant she could not show that potential at a mile.
Value Is EverythingLast time out Blending ran an absolute shocker in the May Hill. The moment she was asked to pick up she appeared to engage reverse gear and was pretty much allowed to coast home. You wouldn’t have thought any punter would be thinking about backing her after that performance.
As far as Blending is concerned Stilvi, her last run might not be quite as bad as it looked. Although there are some mile horses on the dam’s pedigree they include Kingman, who although best known as a miler speed was his greatest asset and put up top class sprinting fractions in those races. It’s also the family of Champion Sprinter Oasis Dream. As you rightly say, she did not find much after travelling in to the race quite smoothly. She had only won a maiden and the price was all about promise/potential. It’s possible lack of stamina meant she could not show that potential at a mile.
The May Hill wasn’t in any way a massive stamina test. Several horses were pulling and it was a pretty ordinary time.
We all know that not every horse runs to its pedigree but I am struggling with the idea of a filly by Medicean out of a Dansili mare failing by quite a margin to see out a relatively easy mile.
Of course she might just have come up short but I would have thought the most likely explanation was some sort of issue.
The dam herself raced only twice but those two races were a year apart so she clearly had her problems. Perhaps she has passed one or two on?
If Blending’s stamina comes from the dam’s side of the pedigree then it does not matter who the sire is. Never as simple as: sire stamina + dam stamina divided by two. If from the dams side then Blending’s far from certain to stay. Not saying it is the reason; it’s just that when searching for a reason for the apparent May Hill poor run – imo stamina is just as likely as a physical problem or the other possibility – just not good enough. Three equal possibilities and next run should tell us.
Value Is EverythingI would fully agree with the idea that pedigree is far from an exact science but in this case if you look at either side of the pedigree you would expect Blending to stay.
Zenda was Group 1 class at a mile and produced Kingman to Invincible Spirit. Yes, he had plenty of speed but it would stretch the imagination to suggest he didn’t stay a mile. You would expect in all probability a stronger stamina influence like Dansili to produce a daughter who stayed at least a mile. As it is the dam only raced twice, winning easily over 7 furlongs on soft ground. She wore a hood which may suggest she was a little headstrong.
All the explanations are feasible but at this stage but I would have stamina bottom of the list. On paper this is a mile family and you might easily expect a little more from a sire like Medicean.
I have just revisited her last two runs.
At Newmarket she was on the front end the whole way and ran through the line. Newmarket is a stiff seven and on that evidence you would have thought stepping her up to a mile would be no issue. In fact, if anything, you might have expected some improvement.
In the May Hill she raced further back but seemed to travel well enough off a slow pace. When they quickened up she capitulated in strides, almost as if she was outpaced. That was fully two furlongs out in a slowly run race. I couldn’t see any visible sign that was a stamina issue as she wouldn’t have been competitive at seven furlongs.
If Blending’s stamina comes from the dam’s side of the pedigree then it does not matter who the sire is. Never as simple as: sire stamina + dam stamina divided by two. If from the dams side then Blending’s far from certain to stay. Not saying it is the reason; it’s just that when searching for a reason for the apparent May Hill poor run – imo stamina is just as likely as a physical problem or the other possibility – just not good enough. Three equal possibilities and next run should tell us.
Add a fourth, temperament. May be she needs to front run/race prominently or may be she’s just got her own ideas about the game.
At the moment Blending is an enigma.Value Is EverythingVery happy with DABYAH 33/1 on her for 1000 guineas looks good so but she improve on this when she go for fillies mile
Steve as you know RICH HISTORY one of unraced 2yos was going on about a shame he run that poor maybe he need the run better be expected on 2nd run.Who knows might do a Harzand run poor on debut win derby next year.Still think it be CAPRI
Any views on 2yo races at NAAS today some intresting sorts making debut like the Weld horse SINGLE NOTE
And Royal Lodge and Beresford this week i think EXEMPLAR win at Newmarket and CAPRI at the Curragh
Very happy with DABYAH 33/1 on her for 1000 guineas looks good so but she improve on this when she go for fillies mile
Steve as you know RICH HISTORY one of unraced 2yos was going on about a shame he run that poor maybe he need the run better be expected on 2nd run.Who knows might do a Harzand run poor on debut win derby next year.Still think it be CAPRI
Any views on 2yo races at NAAS today some intresting sorts making debut like the Weld horse SINGLE NOTE
And Royal Lodge and Beresford this week i think EXEMPLAR win at Newmarket and CAPRI at the Curragh
I wasn’t struck by the Naas meeting today Darren.
Usually the maidens at this time of year don’t interest me as much.
Hope you are right regarding Capri and Exemplar this weekend, I have backed both for the Derby. Exemplar’s maiden hasn’t been working out but he did win it very easily.
A nice weekend of racing ahead with Escobar another of my ante-post bets also in action. I took him at 33/1 for the Guineas as value in a race where there are some farcical prices. Hugo Palmer is keen on this horse and stressed he is all about next year. Hugo’s dream is to be wondering about stamina concerns for the Derby after Newmarket.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If Escobar wins the 2000 it will be Hugo Palmer’s best achievement yet. I really like the horse, should do well tomorrow. Can’t quite see him being good enough to win a Guineas though, being by Group 2 sire Famous Name out of a filly by another Group 2 sire Brief Truce. Dam second in a Group 2 and hasn’t produced anything up to her class.
Value Is EverythingTo be honest with you, I would back Escobar ahead of ANY of the Frankel colts seen this season.
He beat Frankuus more than six lengths and that horse has an official rating of 100 after his listed win.
I had a few quid more on Escobar at double carpet for the Guineas because it’s a market laden with non-stayers and no-hopers. Churchill is rightfully favourite but the price is wrong.
I managed to snag 6/4 on Escobar and I think he will be nearer 4/6, as I feel he has a bit in hand here. Aidan’s can always improve but I don’t like the look of Whitecliffsofdover’s form and I expect Escobar to take another step forward in the Tattersalls.
I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t win this and makes himself third favourite for the Guineas. For one thing, I think we need a decent contender for the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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