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Rain Goddess is switching to Aidan, so no worries, he has done wonders with Galileo fillies out of Danehill Dancer, Minding and Alice Springs to mention two!
If the intention is to run Intelligence Cross in the Mill Reef, then that would indicate that Caravaggio is running in the Middle Park. I think that’s unlikely, they were supposed to decide last week, but it’s strange nothing was said about it at the weekend at either Leopardstown or the Curragh, so maybe they haven’t decided yet.
I just have a feeling Caravaggio won’t run again this year. As I have said, I am not sure he was at his best when last seen.
His Coventry win established him as the clear leader in the 2yo rankings but since then the gap has been closed and Blue Point is only rated 2 lbs behind the son of Scat Daddy on Official Ratings.
Rated as the fastest horse ever to go up the gallops at Ballydoyle, doing 45mph, just behind Keith Vaz and two rent boys, that would tend to make you feel he won’t get a mile next year.
I hope he trains on but it wouldn’t surprise me if we hear that the Commonwealth Cup is the target and then some sort of issue leads to him missing that race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is there some reason that you think he won’t train on versus any other 2yo? He’s a big scopey colt by Scat Daddy who has lots of SWs at 3yo+. I think Aidan has only had the one before, Daddy Long Legs who won a G2 as a 3yo.
Is there some reason that you think he won’t train on versus any other 2yo? He’s a big scopey colt by Scat Daddy who has lots of SWs at 3yo+. I think Aidan has only had the one before, Daddy Long Legs who won a G2 as a 3yo.
He looks a potentially precocious colt.
He started his career at 5F in mid April and not that may horses whom you would be looking to as potential Classic horses would be ready to rock and roll that early in the season.
You have been very selective with your coverage of Daddy Long Legs’ career.
Daddy Long Legs didn’t make his 2yo debut until August, much later than Caravaggio did. He went on to make no impression at the Breeders Cup but did, as you say, win at Meydan. Looking back at that race the runner up had a mainly disappointing career afterwards and the third horse, Wrote, never won another race, having landed the Breeders Cup Juvenile previously.
The Meydan race was run in March and not many trainers are likely to have runners that early in their 3yo careers. March is probably nearer to still being the 2yo season in some respects.
This is without mentioning the most obvious factor though. Daddy Long Legs ran another ELEVEN times in career and never won again. He didn’t even look like it in a deteriorating career where he seemed to finish last fairly regularly.
Looks to me that Daddy Long Legs didn’t train on.
People are free to back Caravaggio if they wish but I am steering clear based on my experience and observation.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Daddy Long Legs wasn’t actually all that good, but Aidan got the best out of him as a 2yo and a 3yo before he was put on the back burner, as happens with Aidan’s colts in the second half of their 3yo career unless they are the chosen ones. He was then shipped off to another trainer, who wasn’t so good at getting the best out of him. The bottom line is that he won a G2 as an early 3yo, and we are talking about early 3yo careers here, if we are talking about the Guineas and Commonwealth Cup.
And Scat Daddy has 7 3yo SWs in 2016 to date, only Galileo, Uncle Mo and Dubawi, in that order, have more.
Anyway, so precocious horses don’t train on?
Let’s stick with Aidan and let’s stick with colts, and look at some of his precocious colts. The following all made their racecourse debut in late April or the first few days of May (within a week or two of Caravaggio’s debut):Rock of Gibraltar
George Washington
Power
Henrythenavigator
MastercraftsmanThat’s three of Aidan’s Newmarket 2000 Guineas winners and two Irish 2000 Guineas winners.
I’m not saying that Caravaggio will be aimed at the Guineas, it’s possible, but they have Churchill for that and the Commonwealth Cup is a prestigious enough target now.
But I don’t think there is any reason to believe he won’t train on, any more than any other 2yo.Every horse is different. What happened in the past with other horses will not matter to Caravaggio.
He’s a short enough price for several ante-post targets. I am not backing him for any of them and time will tell whether that was a wise choice.
People who think he can win them can put their money where their mouth is.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You mentioned Blue Point, there would be more of a concern for his early 3yo career. Not only has he to overcome the handicap of being a Godolphin horse, they have such a good record with their 3yos for the early Classics, or indeed any Classics, but also, he is out of Shamardal.
If we look at Shamardal’s top 2yos to date, he hasn’t had that many, but the following are the most highly rated to date (RPR > 110):
Emotionless
Lumiere
Lucida
Casamento
Dubai Prince
ArcticThey didn’t train on! It’s a small sample, but 6 from 6 is significant.
Every horse is different. What happened in the past with other horses will not matter to Caravaggio.
He’s a short enough price for several ante-post targets. I am not backing him for any of them and time will tell whether that was a wise choice.
People who think he can win them can put their money where their mouth is.
That’s a rather weak return for you Steve
Is there some reason that you think he won’t train on versus any other 2yo? He’s a big scopey colt by Scat Daddy who has lots of SWs at 3yo+. I think Aidan has only had the one before, Daddy Long Legs who won a G2 as a 3yo.
He looks a potentially precocious colt.
He started his career at 5F in mid April and not that may horses whom you would be looking to as potential Classic horses would be ready to rock and roll that early in the season.
You have been very selective with your coverage of Daddy Long Legs’ career.
Daddy Long Legs didn’t make his 2yo debut until August, much later than Caravaggio did. He went on to make no impression at the Breeders Cup but did, as you say, win at Meydan. Looking back at that race the runner up had a mainly disappointing career afterwards and the third horse, Wrote, never won another race, having landed the Breeders Cup Juvenile previously.
The Meydan race was run in March and not many trainers are likely to have runners that early in their 3yo careers. March is probably nearer to still being the 2yo season in some respects.
This is without mentioning the most obvious factor though. Daddy Long Legs ran another ELEVEN times in career and never won again. He didn’t even look like it in a deteriorating career where he seemed to finish last fairly regularly.
Looks to me that Daddy Long Legs didn’t train on.
People are free to back Caravaggio if they wish but I am steering clear based on my experience and observation.
Bit “selective” yourself there Steve. After the Group 2 Meydan win at three, Daddy Long Legs went to the Kentucky Derby where pulled up (overheated). Horses do not need to win to run to form. Coming back to Europe, despite seemingly used as pacemaker he was only beaten 2 lengths by Power in Irish 2000 Guineas. Probably would’ve done better too if hadn’t gone off at such a suicidal pace, clear for a long way and out on his feet in final furlong. So imo Daddy Long Legs trained on well from two to three – given his Group 2 win and Irish Guineas close fourth. Afterwards, probably went the wrong way temperamentally. Almost 3 months off immediately after the Irish Guineas; but not surprisingly after two bad experiences didn’t take the race well. Last in next two starts including again as pacemaker and Coolmore got rid. New surroundings brought a 2 1/4 lengths 4th in a Meydan handicap under top weight, but the return to form didn’t last – several poor runs for de Kock. Possibly had foot trouble, raced without shoes final career start.
However, Daddy Long Legs isn’t typical of Scat Daddy progeny. Doubt Caravaggio will stay a mile, but should make a top class sprinter. He’s not small, physique suggests will train on if all remains well with him.
Value Is EverythingYou mentioned Blue Point, there would be more of a concern for his early 3yo career. Not only has he to overcome the handicap of being a Godolphin horse, they have such a good record with their 3yos for the early Classics, or indeed any Classics, but also, he is out of Shamardal.
If we look at Shamardal’s top 2yos to date, he hasn’t had that many, but the following are the most highly rated to date (RPR > 110):
Emotionless
Lumiere
Lucida
Casamento
Dubai Prince
ArcticThey didn’t train on! It’s a small sample, but 6 from 6 is significant.
That’s true and most years I don’t even look the road a Godolphin horse is on for the Classics but I feel they have had a better year by their standards and I thought they might have had a go at The Dewhurst to gauge the prospects for the Guineas but they ruled him out of that and in as a Sprinter almost immediately.
That’s nothing to with the point I am making though. I am talking solely of Caravaggio and his prospects.
I have a niggling feeling about him and only time will tell if it is justified. Something about his last win struck me as a good bit below what I saw in the Guineas. I am not convinced Medicine Jack ran to his best that day.
We should learn more over the next month or so regarding Caravaggio.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He’s not small, physique suggests will train on if all remains well with him.
Even by your standards that’s surely a world record for getting a preemptive excuse in early.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He’s not small, physique suggests will train on if all remains well with him.
Even by your standards that’s surely a world record for getting a preemptive excuse in early.
Why I say that is if fit and well I see no reason why Caravaggio should not go for the Middle Park. I’ve heard he isn’t sure to take part. Why? Is there a problem? Know you like to think of racehorses as machines Steve, but they aren’t. Would’ve thought you’d have learnt from last year and Air force Blue.
Value Is EverythingCaravaggio tweaked a muscle, nothing serious, but enough that they would have to push him for the Middle Park.
Caravaggio is something like 1/5 not to win the Guineas so Steve is a hot favourite in this contest.
I’m amazed he’s even that price, I don’t think he’ll run in the Guineas, Aidan has as much as said he won’t. Amazed he’s still a short price for the Middle Park as well, even with BV and Ladbrokes who usually have the inside track, perhaps it hasn’t been completely ruled out yet.
I’d want 10/1 that Caravaggio runs in the guineas
Churchill would grind him into the ground over a mileBlackbeard to conquer the World
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