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Yeah the bookies aren’t giving out any presents anymore with these Frankels. I guess on what we’ve seen so far evens isn’t so daft but eventually the stats with frankels might calm down a little bit and revert to the mean.
Totally agree the prices are silly. That one yesterday was green as grass and running over the wrong trip. He was a beast though – will be interesting next time up. The one today is supposed to be very forward but still the price is too short.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
If ever proof was needed that it’s a zero sum game backing short priced horses in maidens, then today has conclusively provided it.
Muthmira, Harba and Voice of truth all beaten at very short odds.
But the bookies will keep on pricing them up accordingly and the punters will continue to bite. We never learn.
If ever proof was needed that it’s a zero sum game backing short priced horses in maidens, then today has conclusively provided it.
Muthmira, Harba and Voice of truth all beaten at very short odds.
But the bookies will keep on pricing them up accordingly and the punters will continue to bite. We never learn.
You missed Helmsdale Judge. A ridiculous 8/11 Fav despite being rated only 70 after three stars. People will have looked and seen that she ran behind Rhododendron last time and gotten a milk bottle in their trousers because of the subsequent run and prominent ante-post position of the O’Brien filly in the Classics. Argenterie winning yesterday probably got punters thinking the form was good but just because one horse takes a big leap forward it doesn’t mean that those behind it will also do the same.
Harba was questioned at the odds earlier and the caution was well advised. Eartha Kitt was well supported but was beaten a neck and the same in third. At least she placed and she was 6/1 in a place this morning. The Frankel fever seems to have lost some of the gloss but as you say it won’t stop some punters.
I hope I am learning though and I don’t touch this short priced nonsense myself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This always seem to happen at the end of the season, only the very best can make it through to Champions Day in October. I’ll never see the point in throwing money at horses that are short priced and never back odds on except in my Thread where I am following the Frankel progeny through their first season to see how they fair to a £10 Win stake on every runner, at the moment we’re in profit to the sum of £83.00 so a bit to play with before the season comes to a close.
Mary Anne Evans won at Ascot this afternoon 3/1 and has finally found her form after looking in need of a couple of races in her maiden at Newmarket where she ran against Dabyah and Amabilis. Sadly I missed her and now she will probably be a short priced fav also next time out.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Fair Eva isn’t in the betting for the opening market that Paddy Power have for the Moyglare.
It looks like Charlton is chickening out after managing to balls up the plan. The Rockfel looks plan Band that has left Rhododendron as favourite for the Moyglare.
Promise To Be True from the same stable is 9/4 second best with Paddy Power.
I like Sea Of Grace as a type and she is only 4 lbs behind the favourite on RPR, so at 10/1 I feel a couple of quid was worth a speculation. She showed grit to win last time and John Oxx feels she has a turn of foot that has not been seen to best effect as she has probably been in front longer than ideal the last twice. He had said earlier that 7F may suit her better than the mile.
A bit of a punt but 10/1 is decent and probably underestimates her actual chance.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It may not have been the best of races but I was quite impressed with Zainhom in today’s York opener. He was sweating and raced very keenly throughout yet still seemed to have plenty in the tank running through the line. He is clearly still pretty raw and would almost certainly need to settle better if upped in class. It might actually be in his best interests to draw stumps but given the owner’s poor season he might be looking for another run. Given his Street Cry/Storm Cat pedigree you wouldn’t have thought the softening ground would have been a plus. The dam won over six furlongs on debut but didn’t achieve a great deal when raised in class over further. Zainhom shapes as if a mile shouldn’t be a problem.
Godolphin had another nice newcomer win at Dundalk today.
Ambassadorial is a son of Elusive Quality and he broke well in the 7F maiden before his jockey seemed to want to get cover.
Ambassadorial was plenty green enough and the jockey had to sit in the saddle a couple of times to roust him up but it was very brief and clearly just to let the horse know that more was required.
The colt was clearly pretty clueless about the game but he came through to draw level before finally sussing out what was required and he won easily.
Bective, who has never won but who has plenty of placed form and experience has a Racing Post Rating of 90 and an official rating of 84. He was beaten 7 and a half lengths by the Godolphin colt today, so I suspect it’s a useful performance from today’s winner.
Connections expressed delight considering the greenness and the fact the horse was 10/1 probably suggests he wasn’t expected to win today. Trainer Mick Halford said that the horse was only just ready to run today and they expect better things to come.
It was stated that a mile should be his trip and that they hope he could turn into a Classic contender.
The race can be seen here:-
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/956517
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There is a very promising sort running at Galway in the 4.35 today.
Exemplar is trained by Aidan O’Brien and he made an excellent debut when finishing second to Landfall in a 7F Maiden at The Curragh.
Exemplar was a few lengths behind the winner going into the closing stages but managed to claw it back bar 3 parts of a length and he gave the impression that there was a lot more to come with experience and the extra trip today seems nailed on to suit.
He’s not a betting proposition at odds-on today but is interesting for the the future. He’s a son of the mighty Galileo out of a Linamix mare and that’s probably why he’s an unusual roan colour.
I think Exemplar will win this today and win it in style. He is 33/1 for The Derby at the moment and has to be better value at those odds than Blue Point, who isn’t even being aimed at the Guineas, never mind the bloody Derby.
I’ve stuck £2 on Exemplar and hopefully he’ll be 20/1 after today as a Galileo with four legs, who can win a race.
I’ll be bittery disappointed if he can’t win well today.
Exemplar 4.35 GalwayThanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looks like he won that well Steve. Good shout.
Interesting to see that Caravaggio has been a big drifter today going out to 6’s with some firms. Anyone heard anything?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Looks like he won that well Steve. Good shout.
Interesting to see that Caravaggio has been a big drifter today going out to 6’s with some firms. Anyone heard anything?
This was Exemplar’s race:-
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/956277
I like the way this colt finishes off his race and I think he shapes as if he will get a mile and a half in time. I reckon he will improve for middle distances next year and he seems as good a prospect as any for the Derby at this stage and one hell of a lot more realistic one than some of those at the head of the betting.
I expected him to be 20/1 after today but obviously some firms need Aidan to say something positive about him first, because they have left him unchanged at 33/1. Some have him at 20/1 and one firm go 16/1.
I’ve stuck another £2 on and am debating topping up to a fiver at 33/1.
No doubt there will be some who will rather wait and back Churchill at 1/4 for the National Stakes and good luck to them if they do.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting to see that Caravaggio has been a big drifter today going out to 6’s with some firms. Anyone heard anything?
I haven’t heard anything but Caravaggio was/is a suicidal price for the Guineas. He may not train on and I doubt he will get a mile.
I already turned down 25/1 for the Guineas, despite backing him ante-post for the Coventry. I can’t see him as a Guineas winner at all.
I was actually disappointed by Caravaggio despite the easy win last time. I expected him to dismantle that field but he just didn’t look the horse who had won the Ascot race so impressively.
Of course, the assessors don’t deal in the notion that a favourite might have run below form to win and the runner-up Courage Under Fire was raised to a mark of 107. Courage Under Fire then became an unlikely four times raced maiden rated 107. That was the mark he took into the Acomb Stakes and made him the top rated in the field. However, punters can smell sh*te quicker than handicappers and Courage Under Fire was 7/1 despite being top rated. Caravaggio’s old foe was 5th in the Acomb, beaten by horses rated 84, 83 and 77, thus making the 107 rating look a load of welly. He has already been dropped 2 lbs by the official handicapper.
I just wonder how good Caravaggio was last time up and whether we will see him again this year, or even next? Something about his last run struck me as him not being the same horse who won the Coventry so strikingly.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sea Of Grace was cut from 10/1 to 7/1 for the Moyglare with Paddy Power. Amazing the power the Caution Quid has on these markets LOL
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sea Of Grace was cut from 10/1 to 7/1 for the Moyglare with Paddy Power. Amazing the power the Caution Quid has on these markets LOL
Well you’re certainly one of the best tipsters around.
Although doubt the majority of punters have even heard this forum, least of all take any notice of it. Maybe they should, as most main stream newspaper tipsters that they presumably follow, lose heavily to a level stake.
Would love to see Sea of grace win this for John Oxx given the terrible time he’s had over the last few years. He did say though that he was concerned about the weather forecast given that she wouldn’t want quick ground.
I hope CAPRI not face Churchill hope they stay apart with CAPRI going for race Australia won at 2
Steve any views on 2yo races at Leicester both look decent races
Any views on 2yo races at Doncaster this week to
Also any views on COMMENWEALTH Cup next year for me i expect BLUE POINT to win middle park be short price.With this not being a classic they have more time to get him ready for it unlike with there horses for classics.
But am shock no price for QUEEN KINDLY she not get a 1m so this has to be target for her next year acts at Ascot bit of shock no price for here.
I hope CAPRI not face Churchill hope they stay apart with CAPRI going for race Australia won at 2
Steve any views on 2yo races at Leicester both look decent races
Any views on 2yo races at Doncaster this week to
Douglas Macarthur is going for the race that Australia won.
But I think it’s unlikely that Capri will run against Churchill in the National Stakes, will possibly run on Saturday in the Champagne.
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