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Peacock is rated 102 Nathan, so he’s no donkey. He’ll find his level but would need to be a big winter improver to reach the top.
Saturday’s Tattersalls Trophy race looked an odd stopping point for Ivawood and he isn’t running there. I suspect that was an entry made as a back up in case he didn’t live up to the higher level races he has been contesting.
Ivawood is currently 9/4 for the Dewhurst and I’d fancy him to have enough toe to see off 2nd fav Gleneagles. Estidhkaar (Surely one of the most awkward names ever) is next in the betting from John F Kennedy, with Kodi Bear and The Wow Signal completing the book for Paddy Power, who are the sole layers at the moment.
Ballymore Castle is still entered on Saturday at Newmarket in a small enough field, for this type of race, of 9 . He may turn out a useful sprinter in time but Ivawood is a full two stone higher than him at 118 in the official ratings.
This year’s 2000 Guineas betting looks ominously familiar with O’Brien/Gosden/Hannon forming a procession of colts only interrupted by probable Sprinter The Wow Signal.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Yeah I was thinking it’s odd that Ivawood’s entered into so many races over the next few weeks (especially Saturday’s one as it lacks strength and depth, other than Ballymore Castle
)Just rang up paddypower and they’re going to email me a price on Ballymore Castle for saturday’s race hopefully before the odds are released, I’m hoping they price up my selection favourably due to Ivawood being a possibly NR, but they’re probably far too savvy for that!!
Yeah I was thinking it’s odd that Ivawood’s entered into so many races over the next few weeks (especially Saturday’s one as it lacks strength and depth, other than Ballymore Castle
)Just rang up paddypower and they’re going to email me a price on Ballymore Castle for saturday’s race hopefully before the odds are released, I’m hoping they price up my selection favourably due to Ivawood being a possibly NR, but they’re probably far too savvy for that!!
William Haggas’ horse Heartbreak Hero brings the highest rating into Saturday’s race Ben. He was 2nd of 21 in a £275,000 race at Doncaster. His rating went up by 15lbs for that and leaves him more than a stone clear of your horse.
I saw a price guide earlier for this race that was a load of cobblers because it had Heartbreak Hero at 8/1. The one on ATR now looks more like it with Haggas’ horse 5/4, next top rated Bossy Guest is shown at 2/1 and Ballymore Castle is 7/1 in the same guide.
I am not sure Heartbreak Hero warranted the 15lb raise in his rating. Sometimes these big money races aren’t contested by the best horses. Bossy Guest has two runs that don’t look so hot at first glance but they were in The Coventry and The Superlative Stakes, both group 2 races. He was second in a listed contest last time and the stable has had a few winners this month. He might be value over the Haggas runner as Willie’s tend to be tipped and backed fairly prolifically.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ivawood could be Middle Park bound according to Hannon
He said:"The Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on October 17 remains Plan A, and if Ivawood did run anywhere before it would be in the £500,000 Tattersalls Million over seven furlongs two weeks earlier."Blackbeard to conquer the World
Ivawood could be Middle Park bound according to Hannon
He said:"The Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on October 17 remains Plan A, and if Ivawood did run anywhere before it would be in the £500,000 Tattersalls Million over seven furlongs two weeks earlier."I think that would be a negative vibe regarding Ivawood’s chances of landing the Guineas next year.
The Middle Park is a sprinter’s race and very few winners have landed the Guineas. There is a big difference between these valuable Tattersalls races and taking on better bred horses over 7f in the Dewhurst.
One has to wonder why they bothered entering Ivawood in the Racing Post Trophy, when it looks like they are keen to avoid taking on better quality horses in The Dewhurst over 7f.
I know Richard Hannon Jnr had a big opinion of Osaila and she was weak in the betting for The Moyglare before cutting no ice. He was bullish about Estidhkaar in the Champagne Stakes and although the horse won, it was not in the manner the confidence would have indicated. You get the feeling there is a slight sense that the Hannon camp feel Coolmore are sitting with the better hand of cards and that it might be best to avoid them.
I have to say 5/1 Ivawood with Stan James for the 2000 Guineas looks a dismal value option and I am getting the same feeling I had regarding Toormore, only a lot earlier in proceedings
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For a top yard renown for 2 year olds they haven’t had a winner in either the Middle Park, Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy ……
Blackbeard to conquer the World
- Total Posts 764
William Haggas’ horse Heartbreak Hero brings the highest rating into Saturday’s race Ben. He was 2nd of 21 in a £275,000 race at Doncaster. His rating went up by 15lbs for that and leaves him more than a stone clear of your horse.
I saw a price guide earlier for this race that was a load of cobblers because it had Heartbreak Hero at 8/1. The one on ATR now looks more like it with Haggas’ horse 5/4, next top rated Bossy Guest is shown at 2/1 and Ballymore Castle is 7/1 in the same guide.
I am not sure Heartbreak Hero warranted the 15lb raise in his rating. Sometimes these big money races aren’t contested by the best horses. Bossy Guest has two runs that don’t look so hot at first glance but they were in The Coventry and The Superlative Stakes, both group 2 races. He was second in a listed contest last time and the stable has had a few winners this month. He might be value over the Haggas runner as Willie’s tend to be tipped and backed fairly prolifically.
I’m not bothered about the ratings when it comes to 2yo’s, all about visual impression, especially when ones had time off as it can improve leaps and bounds behind closed doors, and to me Ballymore Castle appears to be a horse that can do just that, the only worry is the lay off! Just read Fahy’s sportinglife collomn and though I try to ignore trainers comments as much as possible I’m finding it hard to dismiss his words –
"There’s also a massive pot up for grabs in the 100,000 Tattersalls Millions Median Auction Trophy and have Ballymore Castle. He hasn’t run for a while and we need to get a run into him somewhere.
He’s wrong at the weights with a few of his rivals here but he’s a really nice horse. The big seven-furlong sales race there at Newmarket is a race we have in mind for him early next month."
And paddypower never got back to me with a price!
William Haggas’ horse Heartbreak Hero brings the highest rating into Saturday’s race Ben. He was 2nd of 21 in a £275,000 race at Doncaster. His rating went up by 15lbs for that and leaves him more than a stone clear of your horse.
I saw a price guide earlier for this race that was a load of cobblers because it had Heartbreak Hero at 8/1. The one on ATR now looks more like it with Haggas’ horse 5/4, next top rated Bossy Guest is shown at 2/1 and Ballymore Castle is 7/1 in the same guide.
I am not sure Heartbreak Hero warranted the 15lb raise in his rating. Sometimes these big money races aren’t contested by the best horses. Bossy Guest has two runs that don’t look so hot at first glance but they were in The Coventry and The Superlative Stakes, both group 2 races. He was second in a listed contest last time and the stable has had a few winners this month. He might be value over the Haggas runner as Willie’s tend to be tipped and backed fairly prolifically.
I’m not bothered about the ratings when it comes to 2yo’s, all about visual impression, especially when ones had time off as it can improve leaps and bounds behind closed doors, and to me Ballymore Castle appears to be a horse that can do just that, the only worry is the lay off! Just read Fahy’s sportinglife collomn and though I try to ignore trainers comments as much as possible I’m finding it hard to dismiss his words –
"There’s also a massive pot up for grabs in the 100,000 Tattersalls Millions Median Auction Trophy and have Ballymore Castle. He hasn’t run for a while and we need to get a run into him somewhere.
He’s wrong at the weights with a few of his rivals here but he’s a really nice horse. The big seven-furlong sales race there at Newmarket is a race we have in mind for him early next month."
And paddypower never got back to me with a price!
I hope you don’t think I am trying to run your horse down Ben. The ratings for young horses can be very volatile, as we saw the other week when horses rated 77 and 85 won group 3 races. Burnt Sugar was quickly raised to over 100 and as I said Heartbreak Hero already had a swift rise, with his previous rating just one pound higher than Ballymore Castle.
I am just trying to get a feel for how the market will shape and what sort of odds your horse might go off. As I suspected, Timeform have tipped the Haggas horse and if I could get prices on that happening I’d have more money than Sheikh Mohammed by now.
In the Mill Reef I am hoping Limato can do the business. 3/1 looked big when betting opened and I wanted to make sure I had him onside this time after going against him last time. His win from Cotai Glory was franked when the Charlie Hills colt won a group 3 in the Molecomb and should have been doubly franked when the same horse swerved and unseated George Baker with the Gp 2 Flying Childers in the bag. Henry Candy has warned that the horse has been on antibiotics in the build up to this race, so perhaps a note of caution with 5/4 being his price with one firm now. He looks a fast horse going the right way and Baitha Alga has to concede 3lbs. Jungle Cat is a solid yardstick and will probably have fans at 9/2 if the race remains a flat 8 each-way 1,2,3 option.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Some 2yos i like are
WORDS
Won maiden only but strong form it is she progress into middle distance filly next year.
DECORATED KNIGHT
Was 2nd on debut at Doncaster.Showed lots that winner had a run he be odds on next time.And looks smart prospect in big 1m2 1m4 races next year.
STELLAR GLOW
Sea the stars bred she is 2nd on debut another who i think progress well any thoughts on these horses.
Ladbrokes have priced your race up Ben.
Ballymore Castle is 7/2. Favourite is Heartbreak Hero at 13/8. At these odds I would be with Bossy Guest at 7/2.
Full odds available now and 4/1 is the best price for Ballymore Castle on the list.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
MARSH HAWK looks an exceptional prospect based on her win at Newmarket in a time that very few debutantes are capable of producing. She produced a speed figure on my numbers bigger than Kingman did on his debut. Those behind her will be worth watching over the next few weeks as they certainly bumped into a smart one here.
Steve
Did you see her win today?. The ground was pretty bad at Newbury but she ran faster than 106 rated 3yo Lady Lara and carried 7lb’s more. Today’s run makes her a solid Group 1 horse.
MARSH HAWK looks an exceptional prospect based on her win at Newmarket in a time that very few debutantes are capable of producing. She produced a speed figure on my numbers bigger than Kingman did on his debut. Those behind her will be worth watching over the next few weeks as they certainly bumped into a smart one here.
Steve
Did you see her win today?. The ground was pretty bad at Newbury but she ran faster than 106 rated 3yo Lady Lara and carried 7lb’s more. Today’s run makes her a solid Group 1 horse.
I didn’t catch the race Slowhand but she looked to have won easily.
I find it dangerous to compare times from different races too literally and it wasn’t an unexpected result today with just the Gosden horse posing any real danger on the betting front.
I’ll be interested where they go next with Marsh Hawk but I don’t think she’s a definite Group 1 horse on evidence so far. However, that’s the joy of picking one early and being proved right further down the line.
I would say the 25/1 for her for The 1000 Guineas was more realistic than the 12/1 quoted elsewhere.
Just for a change, Stan James are the most miserly bookies regarding the Classics with a risible quote of 6/1 for Cursory Glance. Dear Doctor!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like Gosden 2yo who won at Sandown owned by Coolmoore
Christopherlowe.What you think of horse steve.And other 3 mentionReally taking performance from the first two home in the maiden at Newmarket won last season by Taghrooda. The second idled late home but very well bred, a Galileo half-sister to Western Hymn. In the right hands at Freemason Lodge.
I’ve stuck a few quid on Marsh Hawk. They are talking about supplementing her for the fillies mile and she already has a entry in the Boussac on Arc day so they must rate her. On betfair people are/were saying she wont get the mile due to her breeding and her Mam being a sprinter but in the two races she won both over 7f not only did she break fast and show visually a high cruising speed but she was able kick on again later and put distance between the rest doing good work at the end which would give the impression the extra furlong wouldn’t be a problem.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Some 2yos i like are
WORDS
Won maiden only but strong form it is she progress into middle distance filly next year.
DECORATED KNIGHT
Was 2nd on debut at Doncaster.Showed lots that winner had a run he be odds on next time.And looks smart prospect in big 1m2 1m4 races next year.
STELLAR GLOW
Sea the stars bred she is 2nd on debut another who i think progress well any thoughts on these horses.
I have only seen Words out of those three Darren and I have liked the way her race has been working out. I thought she was a more suitable looking candidate than Found for the Moyglare but the other filly got the nod and ran with credit behind Cursory Glance after running a bit green.
I wonder how much the Coolmore team decide their placing of horses based on which stallion sired them? Their own boy wonder Galileo is the sire of Found whereas Words is by the Juddmonte stallion Dansili.
Words holds an entry in the Fillies Mile and I think she has a chance of developing into a 1000 Guineas candidate in a year where the top fillies seem to be sharper types who will have stamina questions over the Newmarket mile.
After the Al Naamah debacle on her second start I’ve had a few quid on Words at 25/1 for the Guineas.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Words looks a good prospect. Ol man river looks like going for the royal lodge so it’s likely JFK will be sent to the racing post trophy and gleneagles the Dewhurst. Not sure where highland reel will go but could be kept till next season. Ballydoyle has some cracking looking 2yo who haven’t run yet so expect one or two to win maidens handsomely and get silly quotes for the guineas/derby.
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