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Al Namaah, who is second favourite for the 1000 Guineas and jt Fav for the Oaks, is due to run in a Group 3 at Chantilly tomorrow in the 1.05 race. There is a field of 7 entries and the Andre Fabre filly is 11/10 in the tenuous price guide. The race was won last season by the ill-fated Lesstalk In Paris who was second to Rizeena in this season’s Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Originally said to be taking in a listed race on the way to this, before her ultimate target of the Boussac on Arc weekend, I have no information as to why they have come straight here instead. The distance of the race is a mile, to all intents and purposes, and she is bred to improve for the extra furlong she encounters on her second start. A win here will surely see her shorten for Newmarket and the 7/1 for a group 1 win this year will also disappear. It is always a question about how they will progress but she cost a lot of money, is bred to be top class and is in the hands of a master trainer. Physically she looked superb on her debut, towering over Kenouska who finished second. Kenouska went on to win a listed race easily before probably finding her level, finishing out of the frame in Group 3 company on her next outing.
Cursory Glance heads the Guineas betting and her form is clearly in advance of Al Naamah as things stands. Roger Varian’s filly met defeat behind the speedy Tiggy Wiggy last time up and there’s clearly no shame in that. She didn’t seem to be making any headway against the perceived sprinter in the final furlong that day though, and the question with Cursory Glance is how she will figure over a mile.
This Sunday sees a chance to garner some clues regarding the stamina question of the Guineas favourite and the ability of two lightly raced Aiden O’ Brien fillies as they are set to clash in the Group 1 Moyglare over 7f at the Curragh. The two Ballydoyle girls go by the unspectacular, commentator friendly, names of Words and Found. Words has been the weaker in the betting over the past few days but four winners have come out of her maiden win 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th all winning, she’s a course and distance winner who could be anything, so it’s a bit surprising that her stable companion Found, who won over a mile and whose tiny bit of collateral form doesn’t look too exciting, heads her in the betting for Sunday behind the Albany winner Cursory Glance who heads the market at 7/4.
Should be an informative race and I’d probably side with Words at 9/2 with improvement possible and stamina assured.
The 1000 Guineas market could look very different come Monday morning.
ps Words is out of the Moyglare betting now. I looked last night and saw she had hit 5/1 after being 7/2 earlier and left her alone. As I had said, it seemed odd the other horse from the stable with the less proven form, was favoured in the market. There seems weakness in Osaila from the Hannon camp, as she has hit 9/1 from 6/1 despite the Words development. Cursory Glance had gone from 6/4 opening to 2/1 but is back to 7/4 now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Two interesting races at Chantilly as High Celebrity runs as well. Ante-post backers must be a little concerned that she is again dropped in trip. Kenouska also runs in the High Celebrity race.
Bubble burst in spectacular fashion and the tickets have been binned already. She seemed to travel OK but never picked up and went out like a light.
She was very weak in the betting and the commentator from France said he was very concerned she was such a big price. I was worried myself that they didn’t go for the race in Deauville as originally planned and yet again it proves that the curse of the expensive purchase is alive and well. My 50p is nowt compared to the 5 Million urinated up the wall.
Tres disappointing.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The excuses are trotted out for Al Naamah I see:-
However, Harry Herbert, representing Sheikh Joaan Al Thani’s organisation, refused to be despondent over Al Naamah’s defeat.
He said: "To my eyes Al Naamah is all about next year, with her size and scope. Frankie said it all happened to fast for her, she got out of stride pattern and out of rhythm. It’s wonderful to win the race but it’s a very strange emotion for everyone to win with a pacemaker. It’s very rare in a Group race but it has happened."
I don’t know why trainers and connections can’t just own up that a horse has been "Tom Tit"
It was a similar reaction to Hugo Palmer with Home Of The Brave meeting defeat at short odds. OK, it was a group 3 race but surely the form of the winner has to also be taken into account in determining if the form is up to much. Burnt Sugar was reasonably well exposed and was rated 85 before registering his group 3 win at Kempton and that is a huge way away from Ivawood who is sitting on 118. Home Of The Brave could make good progress over the winter and be competitive as a sprinter, after all nobody really looked at G Force this spring and thought "Haydock Sprint Cup winner". However, I thought he was a bit disappointing and that Hugo Palmer’s post defeat comments were a bit bullish, given the level of form actually achieved in being beaten favourite at a short price.
The same applied to today with a feeble effort from Al Naamah in making no impression whatever on a stable companion running as a pacemaker at 25/1 and having a fourth run rated 77. That’s a million miles away from what will be required to win the Guineas and unless something was wrong with the 5 million dollar baby today, she need not bother turning up.
By the way, how are these horses rated in the 70’s and mid eighties winning group 3 races? Surely they would be the proverbial good things in nurseries?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I know you’re being a little tongue-in-cheek there Steve, but it’s always short-sighted to totally write some horses off after one defeat. The Arc market following the flavours of the month this season has shown that.
As for the Group races v nurseries poser, I suppose that juveniles are more subject to sudden leaps in their level of ability as growth spurts happen and they get wiser to their jobs. Especially with fillies, that black type is worth more for their future than a string of nursery wins, even if there’s a snide gamble to be had. There’s always that uncertainty about whether a horse can train-on from 2 to 3, but maybe that is also an issue from month to month during a season.
If your 78-rated five-times raced filly grows a bit and suddenly starts spitting out her workmates on the gallops, it’s probably best to grab that black type while you can. Others could soon catch up.
I know you’re being a little tongue-in-cheek there Steve, but it’s always short-sighted to totally write some horses off after one defeat. The Arc market following the flavours of the month this season has shown that.
As for the Group races v nurseries poser, I suppose that juveniles are more subject to sudden leaps in their level of ability as growth spurts happen and they get wiser to their jobs. Especially with fillies, that black type is worth more for their future than a string of nursery wins, even if there’s a snide gamble to be had. There’s always that uncertainty about whether a horse can train-on from 2 to 3, but maybe that is also an issue from month to month during a season.
If your 78-rated five-times raced filly grows a bit and suddenly starts spitting out her workmates on the gallops, it’s probably best to grab that black type while you can. Others could soon catch up.
No tongue in cheek at all Young Fella, just the realistic way I look at horse racing. Horses can improve and make a monkey of you but I usually take a defeat on the chin and admit the horse just hasn’t fulfilled its initial promise, rather than maintain belief that there was an excuse and that the horse will bounce back.
My mate was astonished when I burned my Ante-Post bets in front of him when Nayef disappointed on the way to a Classic engagement. I replied that I would have needed to still believe in Santa to consider him bouncing back and gave the quote that was mentioned several times in latter years:-
"He’s got Nay-Effin chance of winning after that show!"
Bookmakers were totally unimpressed with the notion that the horse is all about next year and have put her at double-carpet for both fillies classics. If the horse
was
all about next year, then how were they able to run her in June and then declare a clear, Listed, G3 and Gp 1 campaign with such certainty and apparent confidence?
It makes no sense whatever that Al Naamah could beat a listed sprint winner on her debut, and then find "things happening too quickly" for her over a furlong further next time out, particularly against a horse from her own stable, who they were using as a pacemaker and must have been aware if she had suddenly found a stone of improvement.
For me Al Naamah has taken a step backwards today, unless we want to entertain the notion that five other horses suddenly made big improvement. It has not been a good couple of days for Frankie Dettori and he came off Al Naamah with a face that looked like it had sucked 50 lemons during the race.
If Romeo Lima is the Nato alphabet for R L then we saw a bit of Sierra Hotel India Tango in terms of an attempt at staking a claim for the classics at Chantilly today. Now that bit
is
tongue in cheek.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The National Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday sees a betting market choked with O’Brien leading Derby contenders.
Gleneagles, Highland Reel and John F Kennedy are all in there, along with the more disappointing early season pigeon catcher War Envoy.
Gleneagles is the early favourite at 6/4 with Highland Reel 2/1 and, some people’s long term fancy, John F Kennedy sitting at 5/1. This counter-intuitive betting, compared to their Derby odds is probably indicative of the likelihood of each horse actually running on Sunday and it seems a but unlikely they will all clash at this stage.
I have seen it said that whichever horse is sent to the Racing Post trophy will be "The One" for next season but I’m not so sure.
Even by the Ballydoyle standards there seems to be a cast iron hold on the possible Derby winner for next season and I’m struggling to find anything outside of their powerful hands that looks capable of throwing down the gauntlet.
Highland Reel was my early pick but I get the feeling he may start in the Guineas and then, hopefully work towards Epsom, whereas some of them will go a more traditional, stayers route to the race. I would say JFK looks a bit skinny at the same odds as Highland Reel, based on their form level thus far but may be the more assured stayer.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
JFK to me looks the most progressive. Highland reel looks like being an 8 to 10f horse. Glemeagles looks the hardest to Suss but looks plenty quick for a typical ballydolle middle distance horse. The likes of ol man river look to have huge potential and ballydoyle usually have a cracking late developing two year old out about now. On paper a very strong hand of youngsters for aob to chase glory next season. He also has the fillies words and found who look very exciting too. Money doesn’t always guarantee success as the 5m euro flop we seen in France but once again coolmore seem to have got a great crop coming through which is testament, yet again to john magniers eye for an horse.
JFK to me looks the most progressive. Highland reel looks like being an 8 to 10f horse. Glemeagles looks the hardest to Suss but looks plenty quick for a typical ballydolle middle distance horse. The likes of ol man river look to have huge potential and ballydoyle usually have a cracking late developing two year old out about now. On paper a very strong hand of youngsters for aob to chase glory next season. He also has the fillies words and found who look very exciting too. Money doesn’t always guarantee success as the 5m euro flop we seen in France but once again coolmore seem to have got a great crop coming through which is testament, yet again to john magniers eye for an horse.
Gleneagles is the highest rated of these thus far but only narrowly from Highland Reel. The money over the past few hours in the National Stakes has been for Highland Reel.
Nobody really wanted to know about JFK after his debut defeat but suddenly he is the "Kiddie" in some peoples eyes and he looks pretty short enough at 16/1 for the 2000 Guineas, based on a 8f maiden win on good to yielding ground. Runner up Pincode was beaten further when only eighth behind Ol’ Man River next time and all 7 horses who ran behind JFK got beaten next time, 5 of them unplaced. Does he really have the speed to be a 2000 G horse?
I prefer Ol’ Man River as a prospect to JFK at this stage.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You can’t look at maiden form and then try to measure horses on that. Sea the stars maiden runs were against moderate animals as was his last run at 2.of the obrien colts JFK looks to have come forward the most and if his homework is translated to the course he will be a very exciting prospect. Still expect one or two top 2yos to come from ballydoyle yet as a few were very sick in the spring and have taken longer to come to hand. That could have been a blessing in disguise.
You can’t look at maiden form and then try to measure horses on that.
How do weights compilers manage to allot marks for maidens running in nursery races then?
JKF beat Pincode on his second start whereas Ol’ Man River beat the same horse by further on his debut. Given the big improvement the stable’s runners have found on their second starts this season, it seems logical to me to assume that Ol’ Man River would increase his superiority over Pincode with his first run now under his belt.
If we look further into JFK’s form we see that the horse who beat him, comfortably enough, first time out, Hall Of Fame, then went on to cut little ice behind Gleneagles in a 4 runner affair.
Of course JFK has improved from run 1 to run 2 but what is to say Ol’ Man River won’t improve just as much?
My main thrust is the skinny odds of JFK for the 2000 G given what he has done so far. He looks to me like the Derby would be more suitable but the stable has numerous contenders with similar profiles for Epsom and I prefer Ol’ Man River, who is bred out of two great horses, cost a fortune and made a very encouraging start.
Interestingly, National Stakes entry JKF has been diverted to the gp 3 John Deere Juvenile where he will be a very short priced favourite and, as expected, the mouthwatering clash does not take place because Gleneagles is now the sole representative (as early betting had hinted) in the National stakes, in a disappointing 5 runner affair where he will be well odds on.
JFK may well ultimately be the best of them but he’s a bit behind for now and I think 12/1 for the Derby is desperate value.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Im pretty sure I read Aiden saying that JFK was more of a derby horse. I would be amazed if we sure him at Newmarket.
That’s the fun in looking forward to seeing how promising 2yos develop. Ol man river may turn out the best but for guessing by the way JFK has come forward and continues to do(apparently) then I’m looking to him to be a very decent 3yo. It’s no coincidence he is running in the same race as Australia did last year but well know more after the weekend.
A nice win from John F Kennedy again today and visually he has won his races more impressively than Australia. It was a group 3 today and he was 4/7 f, so he was entitled to win this.
6/1 for the Derby and 10/1 for the Guineas leave me cold though. A lot of water has to go under the bridge and when you think Kingston Hill was 7/2 ten
hours
before his Classic win, I’d rather stick my head in a liquidiser than take 6/1 for Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just caught up with Peacocks latest defeat on September 12th at Donny over 7f. Looked a tad green or slow in getting a bit tailed off, 1st off the bridle, hampered and still made up the ground to go down by about a length.
No need to fish the ticket out the bin but more encouraging than the effort before. This horse will win races.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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My favourite 2yo of the season, Ballymore Castle is set to race against the might Ivawood on Saturday, I’ll be betting e/w money on my lad all day, hopefully they both run and the odds are generous!
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