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Very interested to see how Palmers Hill gets on today over the course. Been a fan of his for a while, and plenty of scope with his current mark to win The Topham, and also be on a realistic mark for next year, if they can keep him sound. No concerns with him stepping up in trip next season, and hopefully he’ll take to it today, for all my first priority for National Horses is for them not to have ran over the course. Time To Get Up for same connections is also high on the shortlist, and I’m hoping he gets in at Fairyhouse next week. He’s very high on the list.
Galvin is another one I really like. Ran flat in Gold Cup, but perhaps just short of what was required. A quiet season, and a few pounds off here and there, and he’ll be on a smashing mark.
Already bet one, and in the same ownership of Galvin. I took Stattler for National Hunt Chase/2023 Grand National Double few days before Cheltenham at 125’s. Stuck it up on my DLAP thread, and wanted to start this thread then, on the basis of that bet, but was a bit far off. He could be a Gold Cup horse, but I’ve a feeling this will also be the target. His stablemate Stratum is one who I have in mind, and just hope all is well with him. If all good, could be a Galway Plate horse first, and I’d love to see them consider this. Stablemate Ontheropes could be ideal for this too, and his run in The Thyestes offered a lot of encouragement for this trip. Capodanno from the yard is another who’s surely going to come into the picture.
Commodore sneaks in tomorrow, which I’m delighted about. He’s still way ahead of his mark in my opinion, and I’d certainly not be concerned about him a year on.
After the last couple of months it goes without saying that Christian Williams is bound to be represented, and his Ayr 1, 2 of Win My Wings, and Kitty’s Light are bound to be popular. I’d expect them to be in early markets.
I seriously think that Corach Rambler could step out of handicap company next year, but this should be an obvious target too.
Very early shortlist
Galvin
Palmers Hill
Stattler 125’s
Stratum
Time To Get UpI’ve got one horse in mind for this VtC. The Galloping Bear has been very impressive and it does look like he has been kept under wraps now for next season. I will definitely bet him when there’s a market opened up for this
Eeekkk let me try and figure this year’s runners in my head first
But after the topham deos anyone think spiritofthegames would be suited to ste up further trip and try the national?
Vf x
Kitty’s Light will be a National regular for years to come and while I don’t like 7 year olds in the National; I’d make an exception for this one.
Got to have The Galloping Bear in the back of your mind after Haydock.
Haven’t seen much of Clondaw Castle this season. Hopefully nothing too amiss with him. He’ll be on my radar again for next year.
Royale Pagaille is just short of grade 1 class, but it’s certainly good enough to give lumps of weight away in a race like the National. Will surely be aimed at this now.
Win My Wings. Nuff said.
Suspect Galvin will get entered only to have his owners instigate a new series of The Great Irish Sulk-Off, but he feels like a National Horse.
Win My Wings, duhhh.
The Galloping Bear could be one if it turns up muddy. Not sure if he’s one for anything with Good in the description.
Win My Wings. Obviously.
Time To Get Up stays, but we’ll have to see if he has more to offer or if he’s good enough.
Win My Wings. She’s better than you, and you know it.
Royal Pagaille was never a Gold Cup horse but he had potential, depending on what sort of weight he gets.
Win. My. *******. Wings.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Came on here to say Win My Wings.
Although with such a gap to the third, Noble Yeats will only be 8 next year and may well be still improving, so therefore a year on might be ahead of the handicapper.At this time last year my tip was Any Second Now.
Value Is EverythingWon’t be easy for Win My Wings unless she shows significant improvement. Effectively up 21 lbs for the Ayr win which in handicapping terms is huge. I seem to recall Christian WIlliams sounding luke warm about Aintree in his post race interview. Scottish National winner record in the National not great either.
What race’s winners do have a good record of getting Grand National winners? If looking at the placed horses at Ayr they’ve had a better record so that winners stat must surely be coincidence. Ground and distance similar and both left handed.
Certainly won’t be easy for anything Mike, is the Grand National after all. Grand National winners either need to be well handicapped or improve past their mark… and at the moment nothing is improving as much as WMW. Will be 10 next year which is a concern as most have finished progressing by then, but he’s also got a record of 3 from 3 in April and often comes to his very best in the Spring.
Value Is EverythingI’m sure i heard Williams say something along the lines of the handicapper has effectively decided it’s time for Win My Wings to head to the breeding sheds after her Scottish National victory.
Shortlist for now but no bets.
Corach Rambler
Stattler
Gaillard Du Mesnil
Sam Brown
AnnamixHere,s a punt , do you think Mullins would have a go with Al boum photo ? , surely unlikely to go to the GC again , he,d carry a lot of weight but after Delta works run it still shows the class horses are competitive
Much like my when Cheltenham finishes, don’t actually mind a few long rangers, before putting it to bed till around October, November. Galvin and Stratum are the only other ones I’d consider adding before then, but hardly in a rush with them, while Batcio is interesting after his Topham run, for all stamina could be an issue.
Right now, I’ve one more to go with Stattler, and that’ll be that.
I really like Time To Get Up for Fairyhouse next week, and I’m hoping they’re going if he gets in. 50’s is big, though his abysmal performance in The Grand Sefton is a worry, and having been over the course before, that’s also a negative for me, though this years race was certainly a trend breaker.
Delta Work is the one I’ve added. He’ll be ten next year, so still plenty of time on his side. Will almost certainly go The Cross Country route, and likely to come here off a lower mark. Thought he took to it really well, and 33’s looks completely wrong.
Delta Work 33’s
Stattler 125’sTrouble with backing top / potentially top class horses ante-post for this is:
If ex-Gold Cup horses run near their best or potential Gold Cup horses fulfil their potential they will be going for the Gold Cup instead. So only those ex-Gold Cup horses at the time in poor form or who’ve failed to fulfil potential are likely to run in the Grand National. ie You’re likely to be backing horses who are not that well handicapped.That said, Galvin might be a little different, but then you’re relying on the ground at Cheltenham not to be soft enough to bring his stamina into play there.
Obviously, if backing anything this early you’ve got to be thinking how much weight the handicapper will give the horse compared to its ability. eg Handicapper was never going to put up Any Second Now much last year after being hampered 4 out ruined his chance… And still had potential to improve (and his trainer would not put him in a race where he’d show that improvement until after the weights were published).
Value Is EverythingI’m sure i heard Williams say something along the lines of the handicapper has effectively decided it’s time for Win My Wings to head to the breeding sheds after her Scottish National victory.
Good point WMW. Certainly would not back her until that decision is made.
Value Is EverythingI’ve already bet The Galloping Bear at 33-1. I think that’s a very fair price this far out
The Galloping Bear seems to be fairly well picked out already, and he’s my first bet as well at 33-1.
Gaillard Du Mesnil is an interesting one as well at 50-1, now that Willie Mullins has ran him in a handicap, but is another horse at 50-1 that appeals a lot to me.
Farclas at 50-1 is too big, even this far out, and after the Fairyhouse gamble didn’t work, I can see them concentrating here next year.
It’s a fair way off, but I’m happy to have two very early bets, especially as they’re free bets
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