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Less competitive than when Ginge? Before the handicapper compressed the weights, all one had to do was find a stayer with less 10,10 on his back and one was half way there.
SHL
My current shortlist. I will bet three of them, but it does look extremely tough this year.
Jury Duty
Monbeg Notorious
Rock The Kasbah
Up For Review
DounikosFinal 5
RATHVINDEN 12s
NOBLE ENDEAVOR 50s
MONBEG NOTORIOUS 80s
DOUNIKOS 33s
LAKE VIEW LAD 16sThanks to kemboy , road to riches e.w , three musketeers and lostintranslation I know have a few more pennies to throw at this , gutted sandymount duke got injured but …
Rathvindon , I’ve already had a few plays at him , in my book he ticks every box …a clear round and I’m sure he,ll be on the premises
Lake view lad …this is horse is granite , thought his run off top weight at Cheltenham was a stonker , if he was trained by a bigger name trainer he,d be shorter ..
Tea for two , ticks a fair few boxes but ….his jumping , I thought he was traveling well before falling at Cheltenham if and it’s a big if he can jump round he’s well handicapped on his old form
Ballyoptic , Scottish grand national form works out well in this race , there’s been a gamble on Joe Farrell but even if Bally doesn’t win I reckon he,ll finish in front of him , ticks a lot of boxes
Finally I reckon Elliot will have a well handicapped horse backing up tiger …but which 1 …I’ve sided with a toi Phil , distance is a big jump up into the dark , run at 3m last time was fine …if he can travel and hunt around the first circuit he’s a nicely weighted class animal
Well that’s my thoughts ….I bet at least 1 falls at the first … Asking as they allcome home safe
Added 3 more longshots via b365 EW moneyback offer to my existing ones Noble Endeavour and Regal Encore (which are available at the same price I backed them at…shoulda hung on for the offer with those 2)
Up For Review– hope he is over Cheltenham exertions and that Willie schooled him over hurdles like Min so he can sweep through the top with confidence. Been thinking of him for this since last year and put him in VtC’s TTF specifically for this race so got to back him
Ultragold Sentimental bet, owes me nothing. Sorry Mike I just had to have a go! Didn’t put my shirt on him. Although that means my win money back is not going to be enough to pay for the horsebox to ferry him the last mile
Don Poli simply because of how hilarious it would be if he won. Fair dues to GE he said today he hoped both this horse and Outlander run well. Owner has spent nearly half a million quid to have a National runner…I expect he’d like a National finisher. Ecen If things aren’t going brilliantly he’s not going to get saved for the Irish National or anything like that. If his problem is purely mental in that he can’t be bothered with trying to win races any more….then Patrick Mullins is going to have stern words with him. Also jumped well in the Becher I thought.
Final 5
Noble Endeavour 50-1
Regal Encore 66-1
Up For Review 40-1
Ultragold 66-1
Don Poli 125-1Good luck all, hope everyone gets a decent run for their money and that all the horses and jockeys come home safe
I’ve just noticed I bet Jury Duty in error instead of Joe Farrell! Bet365 won’t allow cash outs now they’re giving half stakes back, so I’m stuck with him!
Just take it as a sign from the racing Gods Peter. For what it’s worth (probably not a lot) I
reckon you’re on the winnerGreat write up, Bobby.
Potentially this year’s renewal is a lot more competitive than 2018, Ginger. Just one example is Captain Redbeard being on the same OR but carrying 4lb less this year. It’s only because Tiger Roll has improved a stone that he has a very good chance. I think he may be beaten by Joe Farrell whose final prep run over an inadequate trip received an RPR 8 higher than that of his SGN win (so apparently is also improved). Main danger on form: Ramses De Teillee. Then: Rathvinden, Vintage Clouds, Lake View Lad. However, rarely in the GN do many horses actually run to their potential form figure!
Patriot, I will be recording Don Poli and Outlander as trained by G. Elliott. In 1885 the winner, Roquefort, had been sold a week or two before the race and the general consensus in the contemporary press was that Arthur Yates should receive the credit for doing the bulk of the horse’s training before the final prep was carried out by William Wilson.
Time of the Topham today just 10 seconds slower than Racing Post Standard suggests to me the going is already more like good-soft.
This is my Grand National 100% Book for between Good and Good-Soft going:
Tiger Roll 18% 9/2, Rathvinden 10% 9/1, Jury Duty 8% 12/1, Ramses De Teilleee 7.125% 13/1, Vintage Clouds 6.75% 14/1, Joe Farrell 6.25%; 15/1, Rock The Kasbah 5.75% 16/1, Anibale Fly 5.25% 18/1, Lake View Lad 5.25% 18/1, Pleasant Company 3.25% 28/1, Up For Review 3.25% 28/1, Step Back 2.75% 33/1, Walk In The Mill 2.75% 33/1, Ballyoptic 2% 50/1, One For Arthur 2% 50/1, General Principle 2% 50/1, Go Conquer 1.5% 66/1, Minella Rocco 1.5% 66/1, Noble Endevour 1.5% 66/1, Dounikos 1% 100/1, Tea For Two 0.5% 200/1, Ultragold 0.3% 300/1, Valseur Lido 0.3% 300/1, Mala Beach 0.3% 300/1, Singlefarmpayment 0.3% 300/1, Valtor 0.25% 400/1, Vieux Lion Rouge 0.25% 400/1, A Toi Phil 0.2% 500/1, Captain Redbeard 0.2% 500/1, Folsom Blue 0.2% 500/1, Magic Of Light 0.2% 500/1, Regal Encore 0.2% 500/1, Warriors Tale 0.2% 500/1, Bless The Wings 0.125% 800/1, Don Poli 0.125% 800/1, Monbeg Notorious 0.125% 800/1, Livelovelaugh 0.125% 800/1, Blow By Blow 0.05% 1000/1, Just A Par 0.05% 2000/1, Outlander 0.05% 2000/1.
I still make Ramses De Teillee the best value, currently available @ 27/1. I have him as a fair 13/1 shot. Next best Jury Duty currently available @ 18/1 and I have him as a fair 12/1 shot. Joe Farrell third best, currently 22/1 and my idea of his fair price 15/1.
What I mean by less competitive is there are fewer horses with a reasonable chance of winning. I make half the field as individually having less than 1% chance (20 horses – half the field – having a combined chance of only just over 4%). With the front 5 in the betting having a combined 50% chance! Tiger Roll has imo the same chance as Rathvinden and Jury Duty combined.
Value Is EverythingCaptain Redbeard is 1 lb lower this year on 143, last year 144, GM.
Carrying 4 lbs more this year purely because the top weight Anibale Fly is on a mark (164) 3 lbs higher than last year’s top weight Blaklion (161) and Captain Redbeard on a mark 1 lb lower. 3 + 1 = 4.…But how good the top weight is does not show how competitive a race is. Only thing that matters with competitiveness is how many horses have a similar chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingRATHVINDEN 12s
NOBLE ENDEAVOR 50s
MONBEG NOTORIOUS 80s
DOUNIKOS 33s
LAKE VIEW LAD 16sAdded VALSEUR LIDO 80/1 6places EW. Henry’s horses are running well at Aintree. 80/1 6 places to big if recaptures old form. Couldn’t resist at the price.
I see you make Ramsee the best value Ginge but do you fancy him ?
IMO he won’t get home and the petrol will be on empty turning for home that is assuming he gets that far. But and it is a big but I am not the greatest judge of a National winner!!
I have been on LAKE VIEW LAD ante post for a long time now. I hope it is soft enough for him but I think the ground will be good to soft at worst today.
I have backed others with Bet365 this morning on their offer which is a great offer. You nly pay for half your bet!!
The others I am on are
DOUNIKOS 33/1
A TOI PHIL 66/1
PLEASANT COMPANY 20/1
JURY DUTY 18/1Good Luck Everyone
Brilliant write up Bobby, it’s a great read again.
I’m adding Dounikos to my other two, and that should be enough.
Vintage Clouds 25-1 nrnb ew 5 places
Rathvinden 33-1 ew
Dounikos 33-1 ew 6 places
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