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I have finally settled on the 3 horses for the race. I’m only going to back these 3 as you cant back them all.
My main fancy is NOBLE ENDEAVOR 50/1 EW NRNB (NAP) – I Have backed him loads at 50s EW since his beecher run. If he jumps around and gets a clean run, I really fancy him to be in the mix. He is a well handicapped horse off 150, his run off 154 in the 2017 Irish National giving Our Duke weight was a great performance. He has a massive swing in the weights with General Principle, Alpha Des Obeaux, Abolitionist for this. The Beecher run as only a sighter for him to get used to the fences, and in my eyes the Ultima was the perfect prep, he wasn’t even put in the race by Davy, but ran on strongly after the last when badly hampered by Give Me A Copper. He didn’t have a hard race which is Key, and i’m hoping he will be primed for the big day with Jack Kennedy as his pilot.
YALA ENKI- 66/1 EW NRNB (NB)- Yala Enki ran well in the Gold Cup, having been outpaced for most of the second circuit, he was staying on again towards the end, but Mite Bite hampered him badly after the second last. His run in Welsh National was exceptional under 11’11 going down by 5 lengths to Elegant Escape conceding 3 pounds. He is only 2 pound higher off 156 and will run off 10-12 if Bristol De Mai runs. Any rain will be a massive help as he wouldn’t want it quick, but he has managed to win on G/S ground his season. 66/1 EW NRNB is a very fair price and have had a few decent bets and stuck him EW multiples. One thing we know from his Welsh National run he is quite well Handicapped, he has to give 3 pounds less to RDT who himself is 5 pounds well in. My only concern is whether he recovers sufficiently after his gold cup run, but 66s NRNB is fair and im lumping.
MONBEG NOTORIOUS 80/1 EW NRNB- Just think he is over priced at 80s, he stays well, has a light weight. He ran on very strongly beating Rathvinden & Jury duty at punchestown last spring. They both have to concede weight to him now and if he comes back to his best he will have a chance. Think this has been the plan since Gordon Elliott highlighted in his stable BF stable tour. Rain would help alot to slow others down as he lacks speed to lay up. He has also won the Thyestes Handicap Chase by 11 lenghts.
Do fancies others but you cant back them all. They are my 3 bullets and one drops out i will back another closer on the day.
Good look all
@Peter
That’s a terrific piece of work Peter, a lot of very relevant information
to consider. My 2 ante post bets, Missed Approach and Traffic Fluide, were
last seen sailing down the Suwanee, so I’m horseless at the moment. Having
said that, I do like the look of Jury Duty. He’s one that will have no
problem getting the trip, and he could be an improving 8 year old. He’s already
achieved a fair bit, not least when he travelled across the pond to win a nice
pot at Far Hills. He was given a nice pipe opener when getting the better of
Mala beach earlier this month at Down Royal, picking up well after the last
and pulling clear. I think the 33/1 is quite generous, and as I type
this up I’ve just talked myself into having a punt on him now. I was going
to wait until nearer the race to see what offers there were, but I doubt he
will be anywhere near that price if he turns up. I’ll definitely have another
one or two on the day but I’ll leave it at that for the moment. Good luck all
Jury Duty looked like he didn’t stay in the 4 miler.
And I don’t see Yala Enki as a 4 mile 3 horse, plus giving weight away to some well handicapped looking horses.
I can see Gigginstown dominating this race for years to come. The amount
of quality animals they have and will continue to do so means each they will have almost a third of the field,if not half in a couple of years. Mostly Elliott with a sprinkling of a couple of other trainers. They have complained about weights their horses have been given in the past, but soon if not already, they will control the weights for the majority of their horses in the race. The trick will be sussing out the plot horses. If Tiger Roll wins I will pay as much respect as the next man, but in my opinion, at the price, and the way he’s sold as the darling of jump racing, he’s every bookies dream. Two years ago Don Poli was favourite for this race before the weights were framed. Giggs pulled him out. He was off for 2 years for some heat in his leg…..hmmmm….I’m taking the chance at 80/1 as at the time, Elliott said this race was tailor made for him. He’s shown nothing this season, but so what? Rule The World was a maiden over fences! It’s the national, a lottery to a degree. You’d be a madman to be backing Red Rum off 10st at 3/1, let alone Tiger Roll who is half the size, gone up in the weights and only just scrambled home last year. Top 6 at best, Elliott is sucking up the press for something else in the stable I’m sure. Just hope I’ve ‘sussed’ the right one! Tiger Roll at 3’s for the national, form an orderly queue to place your bets with me please….
Hopefully they’ll implement a cap on runners per owner/trainer before they have a chance to do that, Jamie. I can think of nothing worse.
The monopoly is already in full swing I’m afraid Peter. JP and Giggs probably own 3/5’s of all jump horses in Ireland, and probably 95% of the better class horses..JP is doing his best to keep up, he used to have 6 or 7 in the race. Next year it wouldn’t surprise me if Giggs have almost half the field and JP at least 5 of the rest.
The race is a goner if one owner has half the field. Limit the runners to 2 per owner as standard with each extra runner in that ownership paying a supplementary of £25,000 or accepting an 8lb penalty.
Giggi buy as many future Gold Cup horses as they can lay their hands on. Nearly all of the trainer quotes on the irishracing.com horse profiles when they win a novice hurdle are “He’ll make a lovely staying chaser in time”. They don’t buy future hurdlers or champion chase horses (or, for an outfit with “Stud” in the name, many mares) and most of the horses that turn out not to stay get binned as do those that don’t have the aptitude for fences (Petit Mouchoir ran in the Stayers this year but the previous two years they had no runners in the Stayers) .
Of course only the cream will turn out to be proper grade 1 3 mile chasers so there will be a lot of leftovers for their secondary aim. As soon as it becomes apparent that an individual jumps and stays but is a grade 2 horse at best, or is past its best in grade 1s, it is kept, converted into a potential National horse and plotted accordingly. Fair enough, that’s what the majority of owners and trainers would do with a not-quite grade 1 staying chaser. It’s just that they have so many offcuts they can do it en masse.
I shouldn’t be biased but if Elliot wins the GN this year, I do hope it’s with Noble Endeavour or Jury Duty
As for the “Tiger Roll: media darling” thing- I think that was created 2 weeks ago by ITV. They had Bryony, Andrew Gemmell and Altior to enthuse over but there is always a staying-chaser shaped hole to fill that they can say “HERO….ABSOLUTE LEGEND” about a lot. There is a dearth of Desert Orchids and Kauto Stars about, so Tiger Roll is filling that gap for now. I don’t think Elliot and Giggi have whipped up the media themselves, particularly.
It,ll be interesting to see what price tiger roll will be on the day , I’d imagine alot if once a year backers and housewives will back him regardless of his price ….hopefully giving us so called experts a bit more value lol…I prefer rathvinden and I’ve been nibbling at sandymount duke too …. I was impressed with last hurdle run
I think the BHA ought to turn their attention to this mass multi horse entry for owners issue forthwith. The 2019 race is about the least anticipated one ever unless you’re looking forward to anointing Tiger Roll again or looking forward to hearing Des O’Connor singing ‘One Two Three O’Leary’
I think I’d sooner the better odds, at a quarter, and 5 places that b365 offer…
You would’nt if your horse came sixth.
Less than a fortnight now, so time to look at what I’ve actually got.
Missed Approach was long term fancy, though that was lessened just slightly by The Becher run, and main fancy now is very definitely Pairofbrowneyes.
I’m still hopeful of a big run from Tiger Roll. His time may have gone now for The Gold Cup, but what a horse, and I’m glad to have been with him for the past couple of years, ever since that day in The Munster National, when he blew me away. I actually get quite annoyed with that, nobody ever mentions The Munster National win. I’ve only got him in a handful of perms for Aintree, and I think he’s only in two which could cover my bets on the race, but it don’t matter, I’ll be cheering him on.
I’ll be looking to lay off a bit on Mall Dini, so that he’s not far off as a saver, while I don’t know what to make of General Principle after Cheltenham. I’ve Sandymount Duke on the exchanges for a small go, and the 66’s ew is a small one as well. Even what looked like a prep run yesterday, still wouldn’t convince me now that he’ll head here. He’d be a welcome surprise if he got me anything back, and he’s very much a saver only.
Tiger Roll (perms)
Pairofbrowneyes 40’s EW NRNB
Pairofbrowneyes 110’sGeneral Principle 33’s EW NRNB
Blow By Blow 66’s EW NRNB
Blow By Blow 360’sSandymount Duke 110’s
Sandymount Duke 66’s EWMall Dini 33’s
Jury Duty 40’s NRNBI’m looking forward to what is usually one of the posts of the year – VTC’s Grand National preview. Last year’s was bang on the money.
Cormack
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