Welsh National 2018

Wait until the day and get 7 places!

Second bet ELEGANT ESCAPE 10/1 EW. Ran on well for a good second in ladbrokes trophy with a penalty. Think he will relish step up in trip and is 4 pound well in off 151.

Good look all

Gutted to see Ms Parfois a non runner.

Difficult to see past Elegant Escape now.

Houblon Des Obeaux jocked up at Haydock in the Tommy Whittle over 2, 6? Hoping he comes here instead, it seems a bizarre choice to go over so short again after his last run…?

On Folsom Blue and the Codfather is down to ride

Agree with Joe though, can certainly see Potato reading out his victory speech shortly after the race.

After looking again, I can’t see leave out ELegant Escape and have added him along with a couple more.

Blogged

I’m most reluctant to tip the favourite in most handicaps, let alone in the Welsh National, especially one who can be a scrappy jumper. But I’m finding it hard to get away from Elegant Escape, Hennessy runner-up.

I think time will tell that trying to give his much improved stablemate Sizing Tennessee half a stone that day was a giant task. That run came not long after a tough race at Sandown where he outfought the in-form Thomas Patrick.

He made a mistake at the last that day and he tends to err more than once in a steeplechase. It says much for his engine that he still finds himself in with a shout at the business end in most of his races. Jumping and rhythm are the name of the game, especially in these marathons, but for all his clumsy jumping at times, he has so far managed to stay on his feet. Despite a later mistake at Newbury, he jumped better than he has and there’s a chance he’s finally getting the hang of it. I think he’ll probably be too good for this field.

Vieux Lion Rouge is one who has put in some excellent efforts, mostly at Aintree and, at first glance, he looked the value here at Chepstow. He ran well in the Becher last time, coming from a long way back on his first run after wind surgery. There is some evidence (though not enough on which to make a substantial case yet) that the second run after this operation can be the one where the horse shows the full benefits.

And one who appeals at a much bigger price is Jennys Surprise, a mare who’s obviously had her training troubles. But she has now put together a string of four performances in a row that showed a consistent level of form around the mid to higher 130s mark in Racing Post Ratings. Indeed, her recent victory saw her achieve her best rating ever (139).

Were it not for some evidence that she is best fresh, I’d recommend her with a bit more gusto. But at around 50/1 on Betfair, I’m happy to back her. Her trainer Fergal O’Brien is excellent as is Brennan, who rides. If there is significant market support for her, I’ll increase my interest.

Elegant Escape is 11/2 and is the main selection.

Vieux Lion Rouge is around 14/1 and is a saver along with Jennys Surprise who is 50/1 on the Betfair exchange (win only) at the time of writing.

Those who back EW should note that Skybet offer 7 places to 1/5th the odds and that about half the remaining bookies offer first five at a quarter the odds.

Elegant Espace is a worth favourite. Winning at Sandown and second in the Ladbrokes Trophy. The 3m6f will be even better for him for all he needed every yard at Sandown and certainly wasn’t slowing down at Newbury. On top of that he is 4 pounds better lower then at Newbury.

Also added Final Nudge and Mysteree as EW savers. A bit of gamble, but they should relish this test and are on a nice mark.

Jenny’s Surprise 33/1 and Ron’s Dream 18/1 are quite
closely matched on their running in a listed race at Perth back in April, and I
quite fancy the pair of them to be fighting it out the same way they did then for
1st and 2nd. I can’t split them so I’ll go with both. Previous to that trace, Jenny’s
Surprise had run a decent race in the West wales National in 2nd behind Henri Parry
Morgan over 3m 4f on heavy ground at Ffos Las. She had a nice pipe opener for this
after a 227 day break over an inadequate 2m 4f at Lingfield, and was running on stoutly
to snatch the race on the line. She should be spot on for here and the 3m 5 1/2f is
right up her street. I think she has got in lightly here, even with a 4lb penalty.

Rons Dream has kept her form well after that defeat of Jennys Surprise by winning
at Market Rasen last month when finishing strongly to lead near the finish. That was
over 3m and like JS she will appreciate the extra 5 1/2f. She was a beaten fav in 2nd
last time out at Carlisle 3 weeks back. That was over an inadequate 2m 4f and hopefully
that was just to get her eye in for here.

Both with good shouts, and I could nearly chance a few quid on an old favourite of mine,
Mysteree, who would definitely be in with a shout if he could turn the clock back to his
Eider win early last year and his follow up race 3 weeks later when 2nd to Chase The Spud
in the Midlands Grand National. Unfortunately for him he has been rank out of form since
then and it would have to be taken on trust that he’s turned a corner. He could do with
the heavens opening, it can’t be deep enough for him. It’s currently soft at Chepstow,
but soft at Chepstow can mean properly soft. 50/1 is interesting, I’ll sleep on it and
decide whether I have a small touch on him too.