Grand National 2018

Disappointing though not altogether surprising Native River didn’t get an entry.

I don’t know how anyone can have total recall for this. He is probably exposed now with his current mark. And struggled to beat a poorly handicapped whisper. I like the horse an awful lot but he’s not a grand national winner for me.

I really like BELLSHILL. I may have said it earlier in this thread but now that he is entered I’m obviously even more interested. He was 10 lengths behind might bite in the RSA on his last run and was staying on really well, just couldn’t handle the early pace of that race. He will probably have a mark of 148 or so which will give a nice racing weight. His best hurdles form came over 3 miles and he wasnt stopping in the RSA so I wouldn’t worry about the trip for him.

Phil Smith, in his last act of handicapping defiance, will rate all the Gigginstown horses less than 130 so nome of them get in.

Wexfordman I’m on Total Recall because the entries lower down in the handicap don’t excite me this time and it may be one of those years where a Hennessy winner ends up winning it.
You picked Bellshill but having not been seen yet will he even run?. I remember backing him for an Irish national when he had an entry and they took him out in the end and grand national winners usually have run by now and having only had 4 chase starts I can’t see how he can be experienced enough.

So you could end up ignoring a potential winner and backing a non runner

Absolute stupidity by ATR’s so called experts on going totally OTT on Total Recall.

Irish rules allow the horse to run off 125 in a hurdle, a mark 22 lbs below what he won the “Hennessey”, 147. Yes, he won despite not settling today, but only because he’d been thrown in off a silly weight. Had he run off the same mark as Newbury (which isn’t even that of a top class racehorse) would’ve been well beaten… And yet the trio on ATR were talking about “winning anything he runs in” due to this performance, Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup mentioned. I repeat, this was a mark of 125 for…!

As far as the Grand National is concerned: If he’s to get the trip will need to settle a hell of a lot better than today off a mark at least in the high 150‘s. He’ll be on a mark over 2 stones worse than here – where would he have finished with a mark over 2 stone more today?

Poor analysis by ATR’s men, who don’t know their form book as well as they should.

I agree, GT. I couldn’t believe it when Gary O’Brien said he should surely be the GN favourite after today. Total Recall has ran to a level of about 140 today, give or take a few lbs, and not necessarily accounting for un-economically he has ran. He’s going to have to lug 156 around Aintree. Normally Kevin Blake and O’Brien are as sound as racing pundits can get, so I’m prepared to forgive them and strike it off to getting caught up in the excitement of the day.

They did go over the top somewhat but i guess analysis straight after a race can sometimes be forgiven. When the dust settles i am sure both will have more “meaningful” analysis.

The horse was running off a very handy mark and really should be winning.

I was surprised at the accuracy of his hurdling, i am not speaking from having watched him when with Sandra Hughes, but normally horses that have been chasing they give their hurdles too much air. Total Recall was hurdling like a seasoned hurdler.

He pulled for a lot of the race, and even after making all he won with serious authority. He was entitled to do this no doubt, but the amount he did wrong, and to win like he did does make me hope he stays hurdling at Cheltenham. I wonder though, will the owners be able to resist the Gold Cup?
If he races like he did yesterday he would be lapped. He was far too keen, but that hasn’t always been the case so it might have been a one-off.

The Grand National would be a different kettle of fish altogether….and one i wouldnt fancy putting my money down to watch.

One that came to mind just the other day to me and one I was surprised to see in the entries was Morning Assembly. Turning for home in the 2016 race I was convinced he was winning it. He tired in the ground after the second last, however I always remembered his run in case he ever came back. He’s only run once since then in a point to point last month, however I’d be very interested to see if this turns out to be the target. Still on a mark of 149, so guaranteed a run I’d say. If he got one more run in him to show his true well-being; I’d be very tempted by the 50’s available.

Pre-weights interests so far are…

Alfie Spinner – Old favourite, won’t get in.
American – This race screams his name, but will likely wait another year. Won’t commit until NRNB.
Bless The Wings – Proper old stayer, but likely not to get in.
Double Ross – Hasn’t seemed the same since his return from injury, but looks well treated and goes well here.
Houblon Des Obeaux – Only bet so far. Potentially very well handicapped. Run last year was better than it looks on paper.
Lord Windermere – Was eye catching last year. Jockey booking is crucial.
Morning Assembly – See above.
Saint Are – Can’t not back him here. Race specialist and always gives you a run for your money.
Seeyouatmidnight – Can’t back him if he goes straight here without a run, but looks suited by the race.
Splash Of Ginge – Purely sentimental as he’s weighted to his best, didn’t enjoy the course last time and probably won’t stay… but he’s my boy!
Tenor Nivernais – Is capable off this mark, but might need it soft

Wild West Wind looks over-priced @ 50.